Austin Nichols is the most underrated big in the NCAA

It was somewhat of a surprise when the 6-9 forward out of Briarcrest Christian High School, which is located on the outskirts of Memphis, committed to Memphis. Programs like Duke, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan State, North Carolina, Ohio State and Virginia had all offered the five-star forward who was ranked as the no. 22nd overall prospect in the nation by the 247Sports Composite Rankings. It eventually came down to Auburn, Duke, Memphis, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Virginia with Josh Pastner’s Tigers eventually coming out on top.

Nichols’ first year at Memphis was an overall disappointment as he struggled to get the playing time he deserved on a team dominated by four senior guards, Joe Jackson, Chris Crawford, Geron Johnson and Michael Dixon Jr. At the time, forward Shaq Goodwin had started coming into his own and had the best season of his career, while center David Pellom was a graduate transfer who joined the team to provide depth. Nichols struggled, only averaging 9.3 points on 58.9 percent shooting, 4.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 22.8 minutes per game.

The four guards led Memphis in field goal attempts per game that season with Goodwin coming in fifth at 7.5 field goal attempts per game. Nichols came in sixth on the team, but was one of the most efficient of the bunch. Nichols ended the season with a usage percentage of 18.9 percent, which was the third lowest of any rotation player, leading only Crawford, a three-point specialist, and Pellom, who took 81 shots all season.

What little draft stock Nichols had disappeared after his first season in a Memphis uniform. The forward with elite post moves and range out to 18-feet didn’t show up consistently, and his skinny frame allowed him to get pushed around on defense far too often. His lack of strength hurt him on the glass and he only tallied one game with double-digit rebounds as a freshman.

His sophomore season was the complete opposite, when he transformed into Memphis’ best and most important player. Had it not been for an ill-timed ankle injury he would have carried the weakest Memphis team in some time to a likely NCAA Tournament appearance. Instead they missed the postseason as they looked completely lost without Nichols.

The graduations of Jackson, Crawford, Dixon and Johnson and recruiting misses by Pastner forced Nichols into a starring role. His usage percentage sky-rocketed to a team-high 24.6 percent, which accompanied stat increases across the board. Averages of 13.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and one assist per game were all higher than the previous season. Field goal percentage is something that takes a hit as field goal attempts and usage go up as drastically as Nichols’ did, but Nichols was still a 50 percent shooter.

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Such success out of the post meant that he was the focus of the opposing defense, which is when his passing ability came in handy. He could find the open man, but the Tigers lacked the talent to consistently take advantage of the open opportunities. Goodwin and Nichols developed a nice two-man team out of the high post because both were quality passers. One would post up while the other hit them with a great pass out of the high post. Nichols was the better of the two, but Goodwin struggled to finish around the rim.

Memphis didn’t limit him to being a post player, even though that is where he spent most of his time. He did find success as a jump shooter out of the high post and the pick and pop. Memphis’ guards struggled to get him the ball, but he is good at slipping the screen and finding open space for easier looks. It will be interesting to see if he can push his range out to the three-point line after shooting a mere 22 percent in his last season. While at Briarcrest, Nichols was a capable three-point shooter so Virginia could make that part of his role next season.

Nichols can also run the floor very well. He can keep up with quick guards and knows which lanes to fill. Guards find him open for dunks or easy baskets in transition frequently. Memphis plays a high tempo style of basketball so Nichols had plenty of chances. While running the left wing Nichols scored 1.8 points per possession and 1.2 points while running the middle of the floor. According to Synergy, he shot 71.8 percent while in transition.

Where Nichols made his biggest leap was as a shot blocker, averaging 3.4 per game which was good for third in the nation. Pastner was searching relentlessly for someone to protect the rim for some time, he found one in the most unexpected place as Nichols developed into one of the best shot blockers in the nation over a summer. Memphis guards were not the most adept defensive players in the world so Nichols had plenty of block opportunities. When a Memphis guard would get blown by or blow an assignment Nichols would be there to prevent the open shot.

Despite more playing time and a larger role, Nichols only committed 0.5 more fouls per game. He’s so efficient at blocking or contesting shots without fouling, only having four fouls four times and not fouling out once. Post defense is an area where he has to improve, he was still getting pushed around despite bulking up. The forward was the center of Memphis’ defense and it fell apart without him on the floor.

Despite his spectacular sophomore season Nichols’ name has not come up in NBA Draft talk. Part of it could be the lack of three-point range for someone who projects as an NBA four. Part of it could be his lack of success as a pick and roll man. Part of it is the fact he played for such a poor Memphis team that missed the NCAA tournament. This next season at Virginia will be big for the underrated forward.

There is a real chance the elite forward could improve his draft stock on a good Virginia team. He is going to fit into the system well and has most likely only improved over his time off.