Come Friday, seven players will know their 2016 fate, and perhaps well beyond.
July 15 brings us the deadline for NFL players who are on the franchise tag to sign long-term deals, bringing an end to drama that has been playing out since March.
For some, there is not much intrigue. Kirk Cousins is going to be playing on the one-year, $19.9 million tag for the Washington Redskins. Alshon Jeffery will be on his $14.6 million tag with the Chicago Bears, and Los Angeles Rams corner Trumaine Johnson will play out his $13.9 million tag number.
For the Bears, Redskins, Rams, they will have to play this game once more after the season, trying to sign these players before they hit unrestricted free agency.
As for Eric Berry (Kansas City Chiefs), Von Miller (Denver Broncos), Justin Tucker (Baltimore Ravens) and Muhammad Wilkerson (New York Jets), the end of their stories is murky.
Wilkerson and the Jets have barely spoken this offseason, ans when they have talks have gone nowhere. The former first-round pick out of Temple is the best player on New York’s roster at the moment and has talked about holding out into the regular season without a long-term deal.
After watching Fletcher Cox sign a six-year, $102 million including $63.3 million guaranteed, Wilkerson has his starting point. In addition, the Eagles signed Cox a year before he was set to hit free agency. The Jets have shown zero willingness to approach those figures, knowing they have second-year man Leonard Williams in the wings.
Look for Wilkerson to hold out into September and perhaps beyond.
Miller is a different case altogether. After all kinds of public feuding between Miller and the Broncos – most notably on his Instagram account – the two sides have been making progress this month. For all intents and purposes, it appears the parties have agreed on something close to six years and $114.5 million, but the guaranteed money still looms as the issue.
Recent reports have Denver bolstering its offer from $38.5 million to approximately $60 million in guarantees, while Miller is near $70 million. The five-year veteran with 60 career sacks is seeking the highest-paying deal in NFL history for a defensive player, and he’s going to eventually get it.
Berry has seemingly been the quietest of the major negotiations, that being until he spoke to Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star. Berry, 27, talked about being surprised the talks were moving slowly, but cautioned things could pick up rapidly.
It would still be surprising if the Chiefs and Berry don’t get a deal done. We watched last years as general manager John Dorsey did this dance with Justin Houston, only to strike a deal on deadline day for six years and $101 million. Berry is a huge piece of Kansas City’s puzzle and the leader of its team. This should get completed and will likely make Berry the highest-paid safety ever.
Finally, we reach the kicker. Tucker has been one of the best kickers in football since coming into the league with the Ravens back in 2012, hitting on 87.8 percent of his field goals. The Ravens have clear interest in retaining Tucker, who could be a mainstay in the way Matt Stover once was.
Tucker will command top coin for a kicker, which could be around $4 million in annual base salary and $10 million guaranteed.
For all of the posturing and tough talk, this week will reveal all for these seven men.
Film Study
Last April, the San Diego Chargers selected Melvin Gordon with the 15th-overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Chargers, who had traded up years prior to land Ryan Mathews, believed they had found the answer to their backfield prayers this time in the Wisconsin product, who had rushed for more than 2,000 yards as a senior in the daunting Big Ten.
There was talk in some corners that Gordon was a better prospect than Todd Gurley III, who had torn his ACL in the fall of 2014. Gordon received the starting job immediately in San Diego, and then proceeded to score as many touchdowns as you and I.
In what was a highly disappointing rookie campaign, Gordon rushed for 641 yards and lost four fumbles while gaining a paltry 3.5 yards per carry, playing in only 14 games. The Chargers are going to need a much better performance from Gordon in 2016 to be competitive in the AFC West, a division that could send three teams to the postseason.
But before we pile on Gordon, there are other factors at work. San Diego has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, one general manager Tom Telesco failed to upgrade in the first round of the draft despite Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin and Laremy Tunsil on the board.
The Chargers didn’t open up many holes for Gordon, which is part of what we’ll see in this film study. We will also look at Gordon’s lack of vision at times, along with a positive that Bolts fans can take forward.
Week 14: San Diego at Kansas City
This is a 1st and 10 from the San Diego 33-yard line. The Chargers come out in a pistol formation with tight end Ladarius Green tight right and two receivers wide left. Kansas City is in a base 3-4 look with Dee Ford in for the injured Justin Houston.
There are two holes for Gordon to run through. He has a nice gap between the King Dunlap (#77) and Orlando Franklin (#74) on the left side with a smaller crease between Joe Barksdale (#72) and Green (#88) on the right edge. Gordon goes right, but doesn’t cut the way he should.
Gordon decides to cut right and leaves a massive swatch of open field to his left behind him. On the right side, Gordon sees cornerback Marcus Peters coming up to fill the hole off-tackle, leaving him with bouncing it outside. Green has done a great job blocking Ford, but the outside linebacker has held the edge and is ready for the bounce.
The result is a gain of three on a play that could have gone for a huge result. Gordon had perfect blocking but was indecisive and then chose the wrong direction. San Diego would score three points all afternoon in the 10-3 loss.
Week 5: Pittsburgh at San Diego
This is a 1st and 10 at the San Diego 20-yard line. The Chargers have Ladarius Green lined up tight left with Philip Rivers in the shotgun, Gordon to his left. San Diego also has two wide receivers left and one to the right. Pittsburgh is in the nickel package with only six in the box.
Note the double teams at the point of attack. San Diego has two interiors doubles while Pittsburgh is bringing a blitz off the left side. Lawrence Timmons, No. 94 is dropping into coverage. For San Diego, the play is for Gordon to take the handoff and either cut right or up the middle.
However, note the double-team on the left. Pittsburgh defensive end Cam Hayward is going to move his blockers to their right, closing the hole and bottling up the play before Gordon can get moving.
That said, Gordon still have a crease up the middle (pink arrow). Instead, he tries to bounce outside again and gets bowled over by a trio of Steelers defenders.
This is a great example of San Diego’s problems running the ball last year. Gordon consistently had poor vision, trying to get outside instead of playing his foot and heading upfield. Meanwhile, the offensive line often buckled, not dealing well with larger fronts.
Week 2: San Diego at Cincinnati
This is the Chargers’ first offensive play of the game. 1st and 10 from their own 20-yard line. San Diego has three receivers in (two left) and have Antonio Gates tight left. Cincinnati is in its nickel package.
The Chargers have a nice advantage in the box, seeing 6 vs. 6 plus Gordon.
As the play develops, the Bengals are all flowing to the right of the screen, going with San Diego’s line. Gordon does a nice job of taking the handoff with stream and then planting his left foot and cutting back.
They key to this play is Cincinnati defensive end Carlos Dunlap (#96). Once Joe Barksdale gets outside position on him, Gordon has a massive lane.
Gordon then displays good moves in the open field. While nobody will confuse Gordon for Barry Sanders, he does a nice job here of breaking down with his hips and shaking All-Pro safety Reggie Nelson (circled).
The end result is Gordon scampering for 26 yards on the biggest day of his career to this point, gaining 88 yards on the day.
Gordon has talent. Hopefully he watched ample film this offseason and got more comfortable, because he has two legitimate problems. One, he has to trust his eyes. Two, he needs a better offensive line.
For now, only one can be fixed by him.
Power Rankings
Top 15 NFL stadiums of all-time
1. Lambeau Field, Green Bay Packers
2. RFK Stadium, Washington Redskins
3. Memorial Stadium, Baltimore Colts
4. Astrodome, Houston Oilers
5. Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Orange Bowl, Miami Dolphins
7. Yankee Stadium, New York Giants
8. Wrigley Field, Chicago Bears
9. Mile High Stadium, Denver Broncos
10. AT&T Stadium, Dallas Cowboys
11. Cleveland Municipal Stadium, Cleveland Browns
12. Superdome, New Orleans Saints
13. Metropolitan Stadium, Minnesota Vikings
14. Candlestick Park, San Francisco 49ers
15. Veterans Stadium, Philadelphia Eagles
Quotable
"“Free had a good year, but I’m expecting even a better year. Well, you’re saying, how can it be better? It can be even better with less carries or less catches because I’d obviously like to get Tevin more involved and that also keeps Free fresher.” – Atlanta Falcons running backs coach Bobby Turner on Devonta Freeman, per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution"
The Falcons have to be careful with Freeman, who at 5-foot-8 and 206 pounds, is built like a fire hydrant. Freeman was great at the beginning of 2015, churning out four 100-yard games in the first seven with nine touchdowns. However, he failed to hit 90 yards in any of the other nine contests he played in, scoring just twice on the ground.
Atlanta is smart to rotate Tevin Coleman in. The Falcons have to run the ball to win, considering their middling offensive line and porous defense. Freeman should be a big part of the offense, but Turner has the right mindset in limiting his touches.
If Freeman can stay fresh and proves durable, that is bad news for the NFC South. Atlanta will start the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their revamped defense come Sept. 11.
Random Stat
In 1999, the Jacksonville Jaguars went 14-2 but lost in the AFC Championship Game. All three of their losses that season came to the Tennessee Titans.
Info Learned This Week
1. Jim Kelly’s cancer did not return
Last week, it was revealed on social media that former Buffalo Bills quarterback and Hall of Famer Jim Kelly was getting a biopsy following unclear tests. Luckily, Kelly’s tests came back negative, as he continues to battle back from jaw cancer that first surfaced in 2013.
Kelly has been an inspiration to millions who have been afflicted with this terrible disease. The hashtag #KellyStrong became a rallying cry over the past few years, helping to round up support for victims all over the world.
Hopefully Kelly can continue to overcome, something he did throughout his playing career and has continued to do well into his retirement.
2. Calvin Johnson speaks out
Johnson is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and arguably the greatest player in Detroit Lions history sans Barry Sanders. Yet, at 30 years old, Johnson abruptly retired.
Now, Johnson is speaking out against what he believes are the main factors toward that decision. In an interview with ESPN, Johnson talked about having innumerable concussions and an unchecked access to painkillers. This is clearly a huge problem for the NFL, which has spent this decade going to great lengths in rhetoric about the game becoming safer and more player-friendly.
Johnson finished his career with 11,619 receiving yards and 83 touchdowns. Hopefully he can remember all of them 40 years down the road.
3. Raiders to Las Vegas becoming very real
After the National Hockey League granted an expansion franchise to Las Vegas, the idea of the Oakland Raiders moving to Sin City became much more viable. According to ESPN, the Southern Nevada Tourism Infrastructure Committee is now looking at nine potential sites for a stadium.
Oakland has shown little willingness to build a new stadium for both the Raiders and A’s, who currently share the Oakland Coliseum. Raiders owner Mark Davis has become increasingly exasperated with the situation, stuck in a venue that leaks raw sewage.
While the Las Vegas stadium would likely cost in the neighborhood of $2 billion, maybe Nevada is desperate enough to bring the NFL in that public money comes to the fore. Oakland has proven it doesn’t have the stomach for that avenue.
4. Cam Newton named top player by peers
In the Top 100 NFL Players of 2016 finale, Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was ranked as the top player by his peers. Newton was named the Most Valuable Player of last season, throwing for 35 touchdowns while running for another 10.
Newton is a tough player to gauge in some respects. He still isn’t accurate, completing only 59.8 percent of his passes last year. In addition, Newton has not thrown for 4,000 yards since his rookie year, but he makes up for that by being the ultimate athlete, gaining 636 rushing yards. To Newton’s credit, he was sublime in the postseason both in the air and on the ground, carving up the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals.
After a tremendous campaign that saw his first Super Bowl appearance, Newton will have plenty to live up to in 2016.
5. Andre Johnson still wants to play
Johnson has been one of the most prolific receivers in NFL history, but he remains a free agent as we near the start of training camp. While some assume Johnson will go into the sunset, the 35-year-old is still hoping to catch on somewhere, according to Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle.
Johnson played 12 years with the Texans and last season with the Indianapolis Colts, posting career-lows in catches (41), targets (77) and receiving yards (503) save for his seven-game season in 2011. Considering his age and numbers, Johnson will need to sign a one-year deal for very little.
That said, Johnson would make for a great possession receiver in an offense that doesn’t need a star but could use a role player.
History Lesson
In 1979, the Los Angeles Rams held the Seattle Seahawks to -7 total yards. It remains the worst single-game output in NFL history.
Parting Shot
Look for the AFC North to be wildly competitive this season. Most are focusing on the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Cincinnati Bengals are defending champs and will have their say. There are also the Baltimore Ravens, who after being incredibly injured in 2015, could bounce back with talent on both sides of the ball.
Nobody’s road to the postseason will be easy, though. The schedule is a brute, with the North having to play the AFC East. All four teams will play the New England Patriots after Tom Brady comes back from his four-game suspension, making the slate even tougher.
The Steelers have the best offense of the bunch, but the Bengals defense is nasty and Baltimore has an elite combination at head coach and quarterback to go with veteran savvy. This will be a three-horse race entering the season, and if the Ravens can keep their older guys (i.e. Terrell Suggs, Steve Smith Sr., and Elvis Dumervil) upright, look for it to stay that way deep into December.