Fantasy Football 2016: Keenan Allen – Buy/Sell? BUY
There’s no better feeling than buying the late round stud who helps win your Fantasy Football league. Before his rookie season, I like many other fantasy owners was all over him and expected big things in San Diego. If you remove his first three weeks, where he missed the first game and played limited snaps, he had 68 catches 1016 yards and 8 TD’s in 13 games. That’s quite a year from one of the worst combine performances we’ve seen from a WR. His combine numbers were putrid. He ran a 4.71 40 yard dash, but similar to Dolphins receiver Jarvis Landry, some players just have exceptional route running abilities/hands to make up for the perceived lack of athleticism.
During a time where it seems every corner and wide receiver is required to have sub 4.50 wheels, Landry and Allen should be out of the league. Whether it’s hard work or an ability to just go up there and snag the ball, both are already proven in their young careers. I believed in Allen because of the opportunity he had in SD, as we all know, their receiving core has been quite weak for some time. Gates and Malcolm Floyd were at the helm of the core and Floyd couldn’t stay healthy, ever. Allen came in and went off for an athletically underwhelming, rookie.
However, the rookie season was not a sign of things to come. He was a 3rd-4th round pick in fantasy drafts back in 2014, following his rookie season. Many expected what would be an improvement off the year before. Allen appeared to suffer the from the infamous “sophomore slump” that often plagues QB’s. He did suffer four injuries throughout his season and ending it with a broken collarbone but the other injuries were minor. Allen followed up his rookie campaign with a 77/783/4 line. That is not what fantasy owner shad hoped for. Averaging 10 yards per reception, and ending the season with the broken collarbone, things weren’t looking good for Allen. Even with the terrible follow-up season, many stuck with Allen for the 2015 season. Let’s just say, we as a community were teased.
Next: Why Keenan Allen can build off last season
Potential to Breakout!
Allen proved why he belonged in the league last season with a monstrous start to the season. Sadly the injury bug ended his season early. His potential for the upcoming season can be found in numerous statistics. One being the most well-known, his on-pace numbers for the 2015 season. Which were 134 catches,1450 yards and eight touchdowns. If you’ve done any research or read other analysts takes on Allen. you’ve probably seen that line before. It’s important. However, that shouldn’t be an expectation for anyone. It’s simply a look at his potential, going into his fourth year now, he’s proven that he can produce in this league. The only question remains his health.
The most intriguing part of Allen’s profile is his opportunity. He has the opportunity to be a top five targeted receiver in the NFL this season. His QB, Phillip Rivers, had an outrageous 661 passing attempts with one of the worst receiving corps in the league, once Allen went down. With the addition of Travis Benjamin, it’s simply a speedster they can send down the field to help open up the field for guys like Allen and even Gates. But I fully expect Rivers passing attempts to drop, considering Melvin Gordon is expected to bounce back from a horrid rookie season. Even if Gordon picks it up, Rivers should still flirt with 550-600 passing attempts on the year.
Next: Target Monster/Opportunity
Opportunity
How often did Allen receive the ball during his 2015 season? A whopping 89 targets through eight games (11.2 targets per game) which includes the game he was injured in the second quarter. That’s good for fourth in the league among WR’s.
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While his on-pace numbers seem unreachable, his small sample size proves that they were ready to feed him all year. While Keenan Allen is not a deep threat, so don’t expect any huge TD plays from him, he has proven to be a top WR when it comes to short-mid yardage situations.
If Keenan Allen manages to remain healthy through 16 games, he will have no problem becoming a top five fantasy WR in PPR formats. He has suffered multiple ailments through his NFL career and durability is a slight concern, his potential and ability to rack up targets far outweighs the injury risk. When it comes to competition for targets, Allen only has to fend off Travis Benjamin and vet Stevie Johnson. Don’t over think this, his targets are safe. Draft the man.
Prediction: Keenan Allen outscores Allen Robinson in PPR! (canceled if either misses more time than the other).