Fantasy Football: Three Factors to Consider This Season
Fantasy Football Preview: Three Key Observations
Is it safe to talk about the NFL yet? While I’d never try to wish away the summer, we are under the four-week mark before the Hall of Fame Game in Canton. For those of you who are forced into the dreaded early August fantasy football draft, I figured I’d kick the tires on some rusty NFL knowledge and see what comes up. Each year I look to identify some key mistakes that were made throughout the year in hopes to prevent the, “Dear God, why did I draft Brandin Cooks in the third round!” moments.
Here are three observations to keep in mind this upcoming draft.
Next: Stacking QB/WR
Treat a wide receiver pick more as a WR/QB connection.
It’s important to understand from where your fantasy points are derived, other than simply chalking it up to a good game. While not totally mutually inclusive, its understood that WR production has a strong correlation to QB production. As fantasy football knowledge becomes more readily available, it imperative to find any edge we can. I think that drafting a WR with the belief that you are drafting a WR/QB connection, rather than just the WR’s talent alone, will lead to a better result.
Some example of guys I would downgrade using this type of logic would be Brandin Cooks, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, and Eric Decker. Brees showed significant signs of fatigue last year and this plagued Cooks is 2015. I don’t see why another year older would change anything. Demaryius Thomas will have either Mark Sanchez or Paxton Lynch slinging him the rock, I’ll pass. Marshall and Decker still don’t know who their QB will be and if it turns out to be Geno Smith, I’ll make that a hard pass for me.
This isn’t to say that these guys shouldn’t be drafted in the early rounds, it just identifies that you may be taking on more risk from a QB stand point than other WRs may be.
Next: Evaluating Pass Catching Running Backs
Pass catching running backs should be drafted higher than projected (Depending on the PPR format of your league)
Before you coin me captain obvious, let me explain. Everyone understands that pass catching backs are valuable, but what I’m suggesting is that they are SEVERELY undervalued in most leagues. This is an area in which a little research goes a long way. Obviously skill levels fluctuate from league to league, but in a more laid back league, it pays to know which RBs catch passes and which don’t. The compliment to this research is understanding what your leagues PPR format is. Determining if your league is full point, half point, or zero points per reception could make all the difference.
Targeting RBs that are active in the passing game not only is a risk mitigation strategy that provides a safe floor, but it also provides tremendous upside. All things being equal (skill level, usage, offensive line, defense), if running back “A” can only earns points on rushing yards and touchdowns, but running back “B” can earn points on rushing yards, touchdowns, receptions, and receiving yards, who is the best choice. Pick the more diversified portfolio.
P.S. if your taking any other running backs over Le’Veon Bell this year, can I join your league?
Next: What Makes A Good Fantasy Defense
A fantasy defense feeds off of a good offense
It still of common belief that the best fantasy defense is the one that shows up on the top of the defensive rankings on Sunday. This is when game theory comes into play. While keeping the opposing team’s points down is important in the real game, in fantasy, its worth pennies when compared to other defensive abilities.
Most leagues have a formula that rewards defensive touchdowns, interceptions, fumbles, and sacks, far more than only allowing seven points. So how do we use this information? Well, as we know, it’s difficult to predict these type of high variance plays. Just because the Ram’s D took one to the house this week, it has no predictive weight on how they will perform the next week. What we can do, is target defenses that have good offenses. This may sound a bit backwards, but let me explain.
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Take the Arizona Cardinals for example. Scoring 30.6 points game ranked them the highest in the NFL last year. It’s no coincidence that they were second in defensive fantasy scoring. Now yes, they have a talented defense, but if you extrapolate this example, you’ll find many other examples. The correlation comes from the fact that a high scoring team forces the opposing offense to take more risk. When a team is trailing they begin to open it up, take more chance, and throw the ball more. As the number of times a QB is dropping back to pass increase, so do the opportunities for sacks and interceptions.
Again, these three ideas aren’t the findings of a lost underwater city, but yet a simple and useful ways of changing your perspective this upcoming draft.
Next: What can we expect from Keenan Allen?
“I stand upon my desk to remind myself that we must constantly look at things in a different way.” – Mr. Keating