Justin Tucker could be on his way out in Baltimore

Could Justin Tucker kick rocks after this year? It’s starting to seem likely.

The value of kickers has greatly increased. Years ago, a kicker holding out wouldn’t have even been news, but now, it’s likely causing great concern to Ravens fans everywhere. His holdout makes sense — athletes don’t have a lot of chances to get paid, much less kickers. For Tucker, that situation is even worse. Per ESPN:

"Tucker, who went undrafted, never received a signing bonus as a rookie and made minimums in 2012 ($390,000), 2013 ($480,000) and 2014 ($570,000). He was a restricted free agent last season who got a second-round tender at $2.356 million."

Most of us would probably love a $2 million salary, but it’s pretty low by NFL standards. Per the same article, Tucker will receive $4,5 million on the franchise tag this year, marking the second year in a row that he gets a solid raise. Tucker is known for his career-long accuracy, but the Ravens may be right to delay paying him big money.

Tucker was 23rd in the league in FG% last year (all statistics per Pro Football Reference). It’s hard to commit long term money to a guy who wasn’t a top five player at his position the previous year, but that number is dragged down by his atrocious 40% (4 for 10) from 50+ yards. Within 50 yards, he kicked 96.6% (29 for 30) and displayed the excellence that the league has long known him for.

So for the Ravens, there’s a simple question: Did the offense/coaching provide him with too many long kicks that would have been difficult to make, or is Tucker having a very visible regression of leg strength? The answer lies in the numbers:

2012: 91.2% FG, 100% (4 for 4) from 50+ yards
2013: 92.7% FG, 85% (6 for 7) from 50+ yards
2014: 85.3% FG, 44.4% (4 for 9) from 50+ yards
2015: 82.5% FG, 40% (4 for 10) from 50+ yards

Tucker peaked right around the same time the Ravens did, and he certainly helped them win a Super Bowl. Looking through the numbers though, we can see a very clear regression over his career, and as he has been paid more, he has been worth less. But as his career has gone on, the Ravens have also gotten worse:

2012: 10-6
2013: 8-8
2014: 10-5
2015: 5-11

Could the Ravens team struggles on offense be affecting his kicking stats? In the end, there’s a little bit of truth to all of it. Tucker has regressed from the ultra-hot start to his career. He has maintained his accuracy from 49 yards and under, but has gotten worse over time at kicking from 50+. Having to kick from 50+ repeatedly due to a sputtering Ravens offense has dragged his percentage down — but it also shows his biggest flaw.

The Ravens are pretty much playing this the right way. If Tucker has an insanely great 2016 and they feel the need to keep him, they can simply tag him again. The additional million dollars would not be as big of a deal, considering the fact that they have not paid Tucker long term. If he continues to regress from distance, they can simply let him go and find another kicker to work with. The overall guiding principle is accurate: pay for future production, not past performance.

The Ravens are hedging their bet. It’s the smart move. Tucker can either perform and earn his money, through a tag or new contract in Baltimore or elsewhere, or he can underperform and prove the Ravens were right to stall. Ultimately, it’s on him.

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