DraftKings MLB Picks For July 15
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For July 15
28 of the 30 teams are in action for the main tournament with the only exceptions being the Rangers at Wrigley in the afternoon. Only four of the 28 pitchers are priced at $9,000 or more. Most of the teams are going away from aces starting the second half. We have to be selective with the middle tier that didn’t make the trip to San Diego. The past stats should help in that respect!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
With Rich Hill being scratched because of a blister (or because of a trade), Daniel Mengden will get his first ever start against the Blue Jays. His 4.54 ERA doesn’t look like a good fit against this lineup. Look for a bargain elsewhere.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Stephen Strasburg ($12,000): How fitting. Strasburg is 12-0, and costs and even 12 thousand. He will likely be worth it. The Pirates have hit just .195 against Strasburg in 41 at bats with one homer, four runs, and 14 strikeouts. And he draws the struggling Liriano coming out of the break. Look for Strasburg to have a nice game tonight.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,100): The Padres are only hitting .200 with three homers, 13 RBI, and an alarming 61 strikeouts against Bumgarner in 195 at bats. The Padres offense is struggling. Bumgarner’s ERA has dropped below 2 (1.94), and MadBum has only given up three runs to the Padres this year in 15.2 innings pitched with 20 strikeouts. Don’t be surprised if he outscores everyone tonight.
Hector Santiago ($8,200): Santiago has dominated his former team since heading west three years ago. The White Sox are hitting just .170 against him in 94 at bats with two homers, only six runs, and an impressive 31 strikeouts. Austin Jackson, who is on the DL, has one of those homers. The other belongs to Brett Lawrie, who is just 2-13 lifetime against Santiago.
Honorable Mention:
Anthony DeSclafani ($9,600): DeSclafani has dazzled this year, posting a 2.23 ERA in six starts. The Brewers are only 4-16 against him with Kirk Nieuwenhuis driving in the only run. The bad news is that he only has one strikeout. That lands him here instead of in the upper tier, even against an offense like the Brewers.
Jaime Garcia ($7,700): Despite a couple of Marlins hitting him well, the team as a whole has not. The Fish are only hitting .218 in 78 at bats with two homers, seven runs, but they only have 15 strikeouts. The pedestrian strikeout total will make it a little more difficult to recoup any runs he gives up, but the past says this is a team he does pretty well against.
Marcus Stroman ($7,500): Stroman’s only appearance against Oakland was in 2014, but their lineup is much different now than then. The current A’s are only 3-18(.167) with no runs and seven strikeouts against Stroman. They don’t have as much as an extra base hit against him! His 4.89 ERA is a bit concerning, but he could come close to upper tier production at a fraction of the price.
Dark Horses:.
Yovani Gallardo ($6,700): Gallardo has held the Rays to a .225 average in 102 at bats with just two homers, eight runs, and 23 strikeouts. His 5.82 ERA on the year will scare most off, but keep in mind that he has lowered it almost a half a runs since coming off of the disabled list on June 18th. There is cautious optimism here. He gave up three runs in 5.1 innings to the Rays back on June 24th, but it was just his second start back.
Francisco Liriano ($4,900): The Nationals still haven’t announced his opponent, but it may not matter. Liriano has held the Nats to a .208 average in 77 at bats with a whopping 26 strikeouts. That helps mitigate some of the damage done by the three homers he has allowed. Liriano should be a very good pick for this price range, but he will give up some runs. We will explore who will likely drive them in a bit later.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Don’t use Ian Kennedy today. The current Tigers are hitting .316 off of him in 76 at bats. Instead, stack some Tigers. Miguel Cabrera ($4,100) is 4-10 with a walk, a double, a triple, and a pair of RBI off Kennedy. Ian Kinsler ($4,600) is 6-9 with four doubles and three RBI. Cameron Maybin ($4,200) is 5-17(.294) with a triple and a RBI. Justin Upton ($3,400) is 3-11 with three walks and a solo homer against Kennedy.
Francisco Liriano has fared pretty well against the Nationals as a whole, but a few have got to him. Chris Heisey ($2,900) is 5-17(.294) with two walks, two doubles, two homers, and five RBI. Anthony Rendon ($3,900) is 3-7 with two walks, a double, a triple, and two RBI against Liriano. Bryce Harper ($4,900) bucks the lefty-lefty trend by going 2-6 with a homer and two RBI.
The current Reds roster has driven in an incredible 26 runs in just 141 at bats against Matt Garza. You know a stack is in order here! Tucker Barnhart ($3,500) is only 1-6, but the hit is a two run homer. Jay Bruce ($4,300) is 12-32(.375) with three walks, four doubles, three homers, and nine RBI against Garza. Brandon Phillips ($3,500) is 10-29(.345) with six walks, a double, and five RBI. Eugenio Suarez ($3,600) is 4-5 with a double and two RBI. Joey Votto ($4,600) is 8-28(.286) with four walks, a homer, and five driven in against Garza.
The struggling Andrew Cashner is facing a team that has hit him hard. Brandon Belt ($4,700) is 6-19(.316) with three walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Cashner. Brandon Crawford ($4,400) is 7-17(.412) with three walks, a homer, and six RBI. Buster Posey ($4,800) is 12-28(.429) with three walks, two doubles, two homers, and six RBI against Cashner. Denard Span ($3,600) is 6-19(.316) with a walk, a double, and five RBI. Matt Duffy, and Joe Panik have also hit Cashner well, but they are all on the disabled list.
Should you stack against Chris Archer? Chris Davis ($3,700) is 5-17(.294) with six walks, two doubles, two homers, and six RBI against him. Jonathan Schoop ($4,100) is 4-9 with a double and a solo home run off of Archer. Manny Machado ($4,200) is 9-25(.360) with three walks, a homer, and three RBI against him. Even J.J. Hardy ($2,600) is 5-17(.294) with two doubles and three RBI off Archer. More? How about Matt Wieters ($3,000). He is 7-21 with a double and three RBI against Archer as well. A stack may be worth while.
You may want to stack against Jeremy Hellickson. Yoenis Cespedes ($5,200) is 5-12 with a walk, two homers, and three RBI off of him. Neil Walker ($3,700) is 5-10 with a double and two RBI. Jose Reyes ($3,500) is 8-21(.381) with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI, and also figures to be hitting leadoff!
There is a Royals stack to be had against Justin Verlander. Alex Gordon ($2,800) is only 17-82(.207) against Verlander, but he has 11 walks, five doubles, two homers, and six RBI off of him. All Star MVP Eric Hosmer ($3,400) is 19-72(.264) with four walks, five doubles, a triple, a homer, and four RBI against Verlander. Salvador Perez will likely be worth the $3,500. Perez is 22-46(.478) with seven doubles, two homers, and a whopping 13 RBI against Verlander.
Nelson Cruz ($4,500) brings his Boomstick against Doug Fister. Cruz is 8-27(.296) with five walks, two doubles, a homer, and three driven in against Fister. Robinson Cano ($4,400) is 6-17(.353) with a walk, two doubles and a RBI. Leonys Martin ($3,000) could be a nice cheap play. Martin is 3-11 with a walk, a double, and a solo home run against Fister. Kyle Seager ($4,900) is 5-16(.313) with two doubles and a solo homer against Fister.
Cleveland and Minnesota could be a high scoring game again. Yan Gomes ($2,400) is 2-9 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer against Ervin Santana. Mike Napoli ($4,200) is 8-22(.364) with two walks, four doubles, three homers, and ten RBI against Ervin. Jose Ramirez ($3,700) is an impressive 7-10 with a double, a triple, and five RBI against Santana.
Next: More Notes For 7-15
While most of the league has had a problem with Carlos Carrasco this year, Joe Mauer ($3,600) continues to hit him well. Mauer is 8-16 with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI. Brian Dozier ($4,000) has the other homer off of him, but he has just two hits in 16 at bats.
Starling Marte ($5,100) is one of the few that has hit Stephen Strasburg. Marte is 3-9 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against him.
Only Brandon Moss and Jhonny Peralta ($3,500) have faced Wei-Yin Chen before. They are a combined 5-13 with three homers (Moss has two, but he is currently on the DL) and five RBI. Advantage: Cardinals.
Chris Johnson ($2,500) is 5-17(.294) with a walk, a double, a homer, and six RBI off of Jaime Garcia. He is worth playing if the Marlins start him. Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900) is 2-4 with two walks and a solo homer off of Garcia. Does he have anything left after that home run derby??
His teammates have not done much against Michael Pineda, but Mookie Betts ($5,100) sure loves to hit off of him. Betts is 5-17(.294) with a walk, two doubles, two homers, and four RBI against Pineda. David Ortiz ($5,300) is only 5-20 against Pineda, but he does have two doubles, a homer, and two RBI.
Corey Dickerson ($3,300) is 4-6 with a double, a homer, and four RBI against Yovani Gallardo in his career.
Carlos Gonzalez ($3,500) is 4-8 with two walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Lucas Harrell. Mark Reynolds ($3,400) is 3-4 with a walk and a solo homer off Harrell.
Mike Trout ($5,000) is just 3-16(.188) against Miguel Gonzalez, but all three of those hits are home runs. Kole Calhoun ($3,500) only has one hit in six at bats against Gonzalez, but, you guessed it, it was a home run.
Rickie Weeks ($3,100) is 5-16(.313) with three walks, three doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Bud Norris. He is worth a look if he gets the start.
Ryan Howard ($3,000) is just 6-28(.214) off of ageless wonder Bartolo Colon, but he has three homers and eight RBI, making him an interesting value play if he is in the lineup.
Evan Gattis ($2,900) is the only current Astro to drive in a run against James Paxton. He has driven in two of them in fact, all without the benefit of a hit!
Jeff Francoeur ($3,200) is 3-10 with three RBI against Jorge De La Rosa. Adonis Garcia ($3,000) is 1-3, but the hit is a solo homer. Ender Inciarte ($3,100) is 4-8, but has no counting stats.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!