Will the Patriots still make the playoffs without Tom Brady?

Tom Brady announced on Facebook that he will give up on the ‘Deflategate’ case and serve his full four-game suspension. How does this affect the playoff chances of the New England Patriots?

That sound you hear? That’s just the sound of one million Patriots fans’ hearts shattering into one billion pieces. Tom Brady has decided that he will not appeal his four game suspension any further, despite some of the troubling legal precedent set by this incident. Goodell has proven himself to be the ultimate authority in the NFL: he need not even be correct to be correct.

Deflategate itself has been talked to death. The real question is: Now that we know that Tom will miss four games, will the Patriots still make the playoffs? The short answer is yes. The long answer is…the rest of this article.

The first thing to do when considering the Patriots without Tom Brady is to look at the sample size of games the Patriots have played without him since him coming to the team, and how they succeeded there. There is a sample for that: the entire 2008 season, which Tom missed to injury. Please allow me thirty seconds to pause and knock on every wood surface in this building before continuing discussing this season.

The Patriots QB in ’08 was Matt Cassel. You may know Matt Cassel as that guy your team paid to be a backup, but Pats fans warm-heartedly remember him as the guy who won 11 games and somehow still missed the playoffs. Brady was hurt in the first quarter of the first game of the season, so Cassel’s official record as a starter is 10-5, but the Pats won 11 games that season because of his above-average play at the position. His stat line:

2008: 63.4% Completions, 3693 Yards, 21 TD/11 INT, 7.2 Y/A 

These aren’t really elite numbers by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re starter-quality numbers. Cassel barely even played in college at USC, had barely played at all in the NFL, then was thrust into a starting role all of the sudden and played pretty darn well. The 11 wins wasn’t enough to get New England into the playoffs that year (Miami won the division and the Patriots lost the Wildcard Tiebreakers) , but in about 90% of seasons, 11 wins is more than enough for the playoffs.

Now—we’ve fast forwarded nearly a decade. Every player from that team is gone, but Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels remain, so the HC and OC have experience operating without their franchise player. So there are little to no concerns about the organization’s ability to adapt. Can Jimmy Garoppolo fill in as effectively for four games as Cassel did for 16?

The Patriots will play the Cardinals, Dolphins, Texans and Bills for the first four games of the season. Carson Palmer of the Cardinals qualifies as the only proven, above-average QB playing in those four games. Meaning in three of the games, the Patriots are playing QBs who are roughly on par with Jimmy G. Those games become closer to coin flips without Tom Brady around, but by no means are they guaranteed losses.

The simple fact of the matter is that the Patriots have an otherwise-stacked roster. Dion Lewis was the most elusive back in the league last year before going tearing up his knee. Gronk, Julian Edelman and Nate Solder are healthy. Rookie Malcolm Mitchell could be the outside receiver the Patriots have always lacked; Jimmy will have plenty of people to throw to.

Despite the offseason losses of Chandler Jones and Dominique Easley, the Patriots defensive front seven is their strength on the other side of the ball. Chris Long, Jamie Collins, and Jabaal Sheard join superstar linebacker Dont’a Hightower to make one of the most versatile and talented DE/LB groups around. Malcolm Butler had a Pro Bowl year coming off his Super Bowl heroics, and Devin McCourty remains one of the best safeties in football. Tom Brady being gone creates a hole in the roster; it doesn’t create a chasm that the rest of the team falls into.

All of this is without saying that Jimmy isn’t even the worst QB in the division. The Jets have still not resolved their situation at QB, but if they end up with Geno Smith…give me Jimmy G. The Dolphins have Tannehill, but he has not exactly earned his big money extension so far. It’s a make or break season for Tyrod Taylor, who is EXTREMELY talented—but we’ve still only seen one good year from him. Given that Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches of all time, if not the best, I think it’s fair to say he can navigate four games with an average QB in a division full of average QBs.

Prediction: Patriots go 2-2 with Jimmy G, end season 12-4 and win the division.

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