Carmelo says Knicks are a ‘special group’

The Knicks forward is excited about how his team looks “on paper.”

Few teams underwent as radical an offseason as the Knicks. In fact, few teams have ever had such a rapid transformation in one season. Star forward Carmelo Anthony is excited about all the changes:

And who wouldn’t be thrilled? After years of languishing near the bottom, the Knicks have a talented squad filled with actual, real NBA players. A run for the playoffs is certainly in sight. But just how likely are they to be a “special group”? Can they really do a lot better than the 8th seed and a first round exit?

Let’s take a look at last year’s Eastern Conference Playoff standings:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Toronto Raptors
3. Miami Heat
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Boston Celtics
6. Charlotte Hornets
7. Indiana Pacers
8. Detroit Pistons

Of those teams, the Heat, Hornets and Hawks likely underwent the most regression in the off-season. The Heat of course lost Dwyane  Wade and Luol Deng, the Hornets lost Jeremy Lin and Al Jefferson (but did retain Nic Batum and Marvin Williams), and the Hawks lost Al Horford. They did replace him with Dwight Howard, but how that fit will work remains to be seen.

Every one of those teams underwent some shuffling, but when three teams experience major changes to key parts of the roster, that certainly opens up some light in the playoff race.  Knicks fans can rejoice! The problem for the Knicks is that they aren’t the only team that’s poised to take a leap forward.

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From non-playoff teams last season, the Bucks, Wizards and Bulls can reasonably expect to be better. For the Bucks part, their roster is young and growing and they added some nice free agent pieces. The Wizards had a down year and were out of the playoff race, but new coach Scott Brooks figures to breathe a little bit of life into his young back court. Start with an elite point guard in John Wall, add a healthy Bradley Beal, an improving Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre (and the removal of Nene’s non-shooting), and this team is a good bet to win 45 or so games.

Which brings us to the Bulls, and the Knicks as well. Both of these teams are going to be competing for those 7/8 type spots with the above teams, but their problems are both largely the same: roster fit. The Eastern conference is not nearly as weak as it once was, and having a bunch of names is not a way to simply walk to the playoffs. The pieces have to fit, and the Knicks and Bulls are both betting on the “talent over fit” roster mold, because their organizational strategies are not in tune — but their futures are inextricably linked.

The Bulls fired Tom Thibodeau because they wanted to install Fred Hoiberg’s pace-and-space system, but then they went out and signed Rondo and Wade, two players who do not fit that mold, and may not fit around Jimmy Butler. The Knicks fired Derek Fisher and Kurt Rambis because they could not correctly run the Triangle, then hired a coach in Jeff Hornacek who also has never run the Triangle. In Phoenix, Jeff Hornacek ran an offense so basic that the Vertical once described it as “like watching an AAU game.”

So now, Fred Hoiberg must find a way to mix three starting guards who are all ball-dominant and subpar shooters. Jeff Hornacek must find a way to integrate the Triangle into his “five guys, spread them out and try to beat you with basic stuff,” system. Neither of these tasks are easy, and none of them are guaranteed—you never know who’s nipping at your heels. What if Orlando’s win-now gamble pays off and they leap into the fray? Carmelo is right that the Knicks look good “on paper”, but since when does that translate to success?

The greatest irony? A team with a bevy of guards ready to post up and bigs who can shoot is built for the Triangle. A team with an attacking guard, three floor spacing shooters and a great passing big is ideally suited to run a Warriors style pace-and-space offense. Maybe when the Knicks decided to poach the Bulls summer of 2014 plan, they should have also poached their offensive philosophy. The Knicks have a shot — but they’re going to need a lot more than paper to get to the promised land.

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