Indiana Pacers offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Indiana Pacers.

The Indiana Pacers lost a close seven-game series to the Toronto Raptors, ending their season far short of what they were hoping for. The Pacers made dramatic changes to their style of play last season, moving towards a more versatile and uptempo offensive attack. What have they done with their roster to further those changes?

Inputs: Jeff Teague (PG, traded from the Atlanta Hawks); Thad Young (PF, traded from the Brooklyn Nets); Al Jefferson (C, signed for three years, $30 million); Jeremy Evans (PF, traded from the Dallas Mavericks)

Outputs: George Hill (PG, traded to the Utah Jazz); Ian Mahinmi (C, signed with the Washington Wizards); Solomon Hill (SF, signed with the New Orleans Pelicans); Jordan Hill (C, signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves)

Retained: None

Pending: None

The biggest change for the Pacers comes in the backcourt, where Jeff Teague replaces George Hill. The Pacers lost a good deal of defensive versatility here but are hoping Teague makes up for it with his ability to create offense in the pick-and-roll and off the dribble. Thad Young is, in a vacuum, a big upgrade over anyone who played power forward for the Pacers last year. He’s also not much of an outside shooter which could keep half-court spacing tight.

Al Jefferson for Ian Mahinmi is another big offense for defense trade. Mahinmi was quietly one of the Pacers most reliable and productive players last season particularly on defense. Jefferson will likely come off the bench, allowing Myles Turner to move into the starting lineup. Jefferson’s post-up game will be a great element to anchor the second-unit offense but likely weakens their defense and puts a lot of pressure on Turner to quickly become a defensive anchor.

One other change not shown here, is the Pacers changing head coaches — replacing Frank Vogel with Nate McMillan. That change, and the system McMillan works to implement, will hopefully guide all of these new roster additions in a positive direction.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Indiana’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Pacers expertise. Ben Gibson (@CowboyOnPatrol) is the co-editor for FanSided’s 8 points, 9 seconds. Tom Lewis (@IndyCornrows) is as an editor for SBNation’s Indy Cornrows.

Ben and Tom were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Indiana’s offseason.

How will the additions of Jeff Teague and Thad Young change things for Paul George?

Ben Gibson: They will mostly be positive, as there will be less emphasis placed on Paul George being the driving force on offense. One thing that had hurt the Pacers offensively in the past was the lack of options. By bringing in Teague and Young, the hope is there are more options and less pressure for PG to do the heavy lifting.

Last year, Monta Ellis took over ball-handling duties and effectively turned George Hill into just a shooter. While this empowered Monta, it left George Hill with limited options as a scorer. But even then, the two guards partially split ball-handling duties, breaking up the chance for either to fully settle in, and this hurt the rest of the offense as they never had a real rhythm for more than a few games at a time.

This season, I believe with Jeff Teague running the show, the entire offense will be able to settle into roles and thrive in them. There won’t be a question of who is leading the offense. If the offense does normalize, then Paul George has less pressure to score all the time. Sure, he’s very capable, as he showed in the first round this season, but you have to hope he’s not having to put the team on his back constantly.

Tom Lewis: Paul George should welcome the change with the addition of Teague and Young in the starting lineup. These are two guys who can score in different ways which will create more options for PG to operate both with and without the ball. Teague’s ability to get in the lane and Young’s ability to score inside or out will require attention from opponents defense which should lead to far less possessions bogged down on the perimeter where last season, PG, Monta and GHill struggled to create good shots late in possessions. As for defense? Apparently, that’s Dan Burke’s problem.

This season, Myles Turner will be                      .

Ben Gibson: A top-10 sophomore. We saw his development (and overall numbers) be slowed by his thumb injury in 2015. He had some highs and lows once he returned, but he undoubtedly became a starter for the Indiana Pacers.

As far as averages, he had 10.3 points per game (seventh among rookies) and 5.5 rebounds (fifth) per game. Not bad, obviously, but compared to the other top rookies, he’s shown limited upside. For example, Karl-Anthony Towns had 52 double-doubles, Kristaps Porzingis had 21, Nikola Jokic had 16 and Jahlil Okafor had 11, while Turner was in a very average pack of players with 5. Still near the top, but even the more rational but optimistic fans can’t expect him to move up into the top 5? It isn’t impossible he makes a major jump, but at this point I’m hoping he becomes a consistent double-double player next season.

Tom Lewis: 20! Expectations are high for a big leap in impact and productivity from Turner but he is still in the infant stages of his NBA career. Larry Bird has raised the bar on expectations and Turner has embraced the situation. Minutes alone will raise his offensive numbers, but he has plenty of work to do on the defensive end to be consistent. Fortunately, Bird brought in a safety net for the young fella by adding Al Jefferson and a few other veteran players. That additional experience on the roster should help Turner continue to elevate his game but it won’t be without a little turbulence along the way.

Do you have any concerns about the lack of reliable outside shooting, or is that just me?

Ben Gibson: No, that is very much an issue. George Hill was the best three-point shooter by percentage, and now he’s gone. Jeff Teague shoots around the same, but as I point guard I don’t know how much he can space the floor with the ball in his hands. Outside of him, it is very choppy. Monta isn’t consistent enough to get excited when he takes a three-pointer, as he’s a 30.9% shooter.

Sure, PG can hit threes, but I don’t exactly expect Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner to rain down shots from beyond the arc. They might be able to make it work, but Monta’s lack of consistency might be the biggest issue as far as making teams fear shots from beyond the arc.

Tom Lewis: With a point guard who can break down a defense and create kick-out opportunities for shooters, not having a guy who makes everyone in the Fieldhouse rise with anticipation when he catches a pass for an open three is a concern. Without any more additions, C.J. Miles could be the guy to help create a perimeter threat. He had such a screwy season last year with the power forward experiment which turned it into a lost season. Preparing for a more natural role this year may help Miles deliver more consistently. And no, that hope doesn’t alleviate the concern.

What’s the pace?

Of all the moves the Indiana Pacers made this offseason, the biggest may have been on the bench where they replaced head coach Frank Vogel with Nate McMillan. Larry Bird’s case for the coaching change was about avoiding stagnation but the Pacers also finished last season with a somewhat disjointed implementation of the uptempo offensive style that Bird pushed. If continuing to remake this team as a fast-paced offense is the goal, McMillan is a somewhat strange choice.

McMillan impressed as an assistant for the Pacers and his head coaching record with the Seattle SuperSonics and Portland Trail Blazers is respectable. His overall record is just above .500 but he presided over some very good teams, including a few with very good offenses. What he doest not have on his resume is an example of leading an uptempo offense.

The graph below compares Vogel to the McMillan’s two head coaching stints by the team’s pace each season, relative to the league average.

The first season for Vogel with the Pacers and McMillan with the Blazers are the partial seasons in which they took over head coaching responsibilities. I included those so that we can see the trend after each took over. Vogel’s first full season was the slowest pace for the Pacers and they increased their tempo every season after that. McMillan, on the other hand, dramatically and consistently slowed down the Trail Blazers offense.

McMillan has never coached a team with a pace above the league average and in all but two seasons, his team finished with a pace about three possessions of slower than the league average. To put that in context, only two teams finished with a pace that far below the league average last season — the Toronto Raptors and the Utah Jazz.

Like players, coaches evolve and adapt and several of McMillan’s methodical offenses were very good. However, if McMillan is going to lead the Pacers in the kind of offense they say they want to run, it’s going to require some adaptation on his part.

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