DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 20
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 20
We have 7 of the 15 games in the afternoon on getaway day. That makes a pretty even split between the day and the night tournaments. There are four pitchers that cost upwards of $10,000. Who is worth paying for? Let’s check out the past stats.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Marcus Stroman has never faced the Diamondbacks, but his 5.15 ERA doesn’t inspire confidence, despite that great offense behind him. His strikeouts are down, and his breakout 2014 rookie season seems like a distant memory. I only trust him in great matchups, and this isn’t one.
Daniel Mengden gave up six runs and failed to make it through the fifth inning against the Astros on July 8th. The six strikeouts were nice, but it still wasn’t enough to offset the damage. He is a little better play at the spacious Coliseum, but I still find it hard to play him here.
Chris Archer has never faced the Rockies, but he is in the midst of his worst season, posting a 4.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The 136 strikeouts are nice, but not nice enough to make me want to chance him in Coors Field.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bet:
Kyle Hendricks ($10,200): Hendricks didn’t face the Mets in the disastrous series at CitiField for the Cubs. The Mets are only hitting .225 against Hendricks in 40 at bats with one homer, only two runs, and seven strikeouts. That isn’t a high strikeout total, but it is apparent that the Mets haven’t hit him well. Lucas Duda hit the only homer off of him, and he is on the disabled list. Hendricks looks like the best bet on a small slate this afternoon.
Honorable Mention:
Carlos Carrasco ($10,400): The Champs are hitting a solid .254 against Carrasco in 193 at bats with only five homers and 16 RBI with 55 strikeouts. The high average paints a cautionary tale, but the strikeout potential is here. And in a lighter slate, Carrasco is still worth mentioning. He may have a hard time producing for his price though.
Felix Hernandez ($10,100): King Felix will be making his first start since May 27 against a team that has hit a pedestrian .239 against him in 159 at bats with two homers. The bad news is they have scored 15 runs and only have 35 strikeouts. Word out of the Emerald City is that Felix wont have any pitch restrictions. On the chance that he may have some rust and/or restrictions, he doesn’t get in the top billing tonight. He will likely be a solid option, but that price tag will turn some people off.
Dark Horse:
Jorge De La Rosa ($6,000): The current members of the Rays that De La Rosa has faced are just 2-14(.143) against him with four strikeouts. Evan Longoria hit a solo home run off of him in his only official plate appearance. As per usual, De La Rosa’s ERA at Coors Field is much better than it is on the road (4.41 to 6.50). A 4.41 ERA is nothing to write home about, but he is facing a struggling lineup and struggling pitcher. There is some value here for those willing to take a chance.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Ervin Santana is right around his career marks in ERA (4.12 on the year, 4.16 on his career) and WHIP (1.3 on the year, 1.28 on his career). If his career numbers against the Tigers hold true, you should have quite a few of them in your lineup this afternoon. Miguel Cabrera ($3,800) is only 6-22(.273), but he has five walks, a homer, and four RBI against Ervin. Ian Kinsler ($4,400) is 20-65(.308) with five walks, six doubles, a triple, a homer, and six RBI. Victor Martinez ($3,000) is 10-31(.323) with a walk, two homers, and five RBI against Santana.
Robinson Cano ($5,000) is a miserable 4-27(.148) against Miguel Gonzalez, but he does have two walks, a homer, and four RBI off of him. Nelson Cruz ($3,500) is 4-11(.364) with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI. Adam Lind ($3,300) defies the lefty split, and is 8-18(.444) with two walks and a solo homer against Gonzalez. Seth Smith ($4,100) is only 1-7, but the hit is a home run.
Alex Gordon ($3,500) is only 4-26(.154) against Carlos Carrasco, but he has five walks, two homers, and three RBI off of him. Whit Merrifield ($2,500) went 2-3 with a triple and a solo homer against Carrasco back on June 13th. Eric Hosmer ($3,100) is 7-21 with four walks, two doubles, a triple, and three RBI against Carrasco.
Next: More Notes For 7-20
Brett Lawrie ($2,400) is 8-22(.364) with a double, a homer, and four RBI against King Felix. Adam Eaton ($3,400) is 3-7 with a RBI. Can they hit him on his return from the DL?
Carlos Correa ($4,900) went 2-3 with a homer and three RBI against Daniel Mengden just 12 days ago. Do you want to bet against him doing it again?
Rajai Davis ($4,000) is 6-13(.462) with a homer and three RBI against Ian Kennedy. Francisco Lindor ($4,200) is 4-8 with two doubles and a walk. At least Kennedy doesn’t have to face the suspended Marlon Byrd, who has two homers and 11 RBI off of him in just 28 at bats.
Billy Butler ($2,400) is 11-37(.297) with two walks and five RBI against Doug Fister. That said, using Butler this year is rarely worth it. Coco Crisp ($3,500) is 7-23(.304) with two triples and a RBI off of Fister.
Look out for Joe Mauer ($3,700) today. He is 24-71(.338) with 13 walks, five doubles, three homers (all of the ones that the Twins have hit against him), and ten RBI off of Justin Verlander. Kurt Suzuki ($2,300) could be a good afternoon pick too. He is 13-39 with a walk, two doubles, and five RBI against Verlander.
Troy Tulowitzki ($4,000) is 6-14(.429) with three walks and a double against Patrick Corbin, but he doesn’t have any other counting stats.
A game against Bartolo Colon could be just what the struggling Jason Heyward ($3,400) needs. Heyward is 7-20 with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Colon. Ben Zobrist ($4,300) is 8-16 with four walks, a triple, four homers, and six RBI against Colon. If he is in the Cubs’s lineup, he definitely should be in yours!
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!