Fantasy Football PPR: Top Three RB Rankings
Fantasy Football PPR: Top Three RB Rankings for 2016
1. Le’Veon Bell
I wrote on Bell earlier in the season but have since tempered my expectations a bit. He’s still the clear number one option this year, but the injury risk is definitely there. If you told any fantasy player that Le’Veon Bell was playing 16 games this year, he would be the clear-cut number one RB by every expert. Sadly that’s not the case and we have to factor in the injury risk. He’s had injury issues dating back to college and now is recovering from a torn MCL and PCL. While I’m not too concerned over a lack of explosion, the re-injury possibility does not make Bell necessarily safe. He’s well worth the risk as we have seen his potential in a healthy Pittsburgh offense.
Bell is also coming at a draft day discount as the ‘Zero-RB’ strategy becomes more and more popular. Bell has been falling to the 6-8th pick in some drafts and that’s quite the value for the clear-cut, number one fantasy RB. Though the red flags would make sense to a potential draft day discount. It’s tough to trust a guy who is constantly injured, but likewise– it’s tough to avoid one of the best fantasy players out there while healthy. The debate for his draft position is much more difficult to rank than his positional rank, if he plays at least 14 games, he will be the number one fantasy running back in PPR formats.
If you’re an RB guy, Bell is a perfect pick anywhere from picks 4-6. Don’t forget– Bell is just 24 years-old and averaged 20 fantasy points per game in his 35 games played in his career. To put that into perspective, Devonta Freeman averaged just over 21 per game and he was by far the most dominant fantasy back last year, Bell nearly averages that as a career average.
An interesting stat about Le’Veon Bell: He scores almost three more fantasy points per game from weeks 9-17 than he does 1-8. You’d think he would start quick and production would tail off but it appears to be the opposite, at least for young, non-injured Bell.
Next: A tie?
2. David Johnson or 3.Todd Gurley
The reason I have them listed directly next to each other is I fully belive this is a subjective decision. Though subjectiveness doesn’t aid those who want a clear-cut answer, I think this is the perfect case to prove that it all depends on you as a drafter, — on whom you prefer. Here are their similarities: They are both second-year guys, selected in the same draft class, both 6’1 220-225 pounds and performed at a high level in college. The differences: Gurley could be the best running back in all of football in a year, Gurley is 21 compared to DJ who is 24, Gurley slowed down as 2015 season came to an end, DJ blew up, Gurley is a lock 270-300 touches, while DJ has some competition of touches between Chris Johnson and Ellington, Gurley had solid production all year, DJ only was given a heavy workload in the last five regular season games.
I know, that’s a lot of information, some more useful than the others but I figured it would be important to lay out some of the basics first. When it comes to PPR, I struggle to say Gurley has a high floor, though he’s just 21 and has already proven to be a top five back in the league. I think the 21 catches through 13 games is just too little to overlook. Of course there has been talk of being more involved in the pass game but this just seems like another Adrian Peterson related talk up. Now for standard, I’d pick Gurley and it wouldn’t even be remotely close, but the PPR difference from DJ to Gurley could be huge.
Gurley in the first half of 2015: 664 yards, 5.6 YPC, and 13 catches.
Gurley in the second half of the season: 442 yards, 4.0 YPC, and 8 catches.
With the addition of rookie QB Jared Goff, the volume for Gurley will certainly be there, but the Rams will find themselves down in games more often than not, which doesn’t help Gurley at all. For a guy who has an ADP of 6 in PPR leagues, the volume is one of the key parts, and blowouts are not what we want for the star RB. The second half struggles are also concerning, either teams figured him out, or he just simply came back to Earth.
Gurley is just 21 though, and he is on the rise to be the best RB in the league, but I’m not sure we should grab in above DJ in PPR.
Next: Why David Johnson?
Case for David Johnson
Johnson is an interesting selection in this year’s fantasy drafts for sure. He has all the physical tools you want in your RB and displayed fantastic hands and play making skills out of the backfield. Johnson scored three touchdowns on his first three touches in the NFL. I honestly couldn’t fathom the lack of hype surrounding that statistic alone, that’s simply incredible. Not to mention one of the TD’s was a 108 yard kickoff return! He scored 12 touchdowns during the regular season and started just five of those games. He has a knack for the end zone, and it clearly showed. But what is slightly conceding is his rushing totals as the season concluded. If you include the playoffs, his last four games showed rushing totals of 50 rushes for just 160 yards. Good for just 3.2 YPC. While that’s not wha you’d like to see, it was just through four games and his receiving totals in that span were impressive with 21 catches for 233 yards. In just four games, he managed to catch as many passes as the electric Todd Gurley caught in all 13 games that he played!
Johnson also performed very well in his first three starts, accumulating 79 touches, 470 total yards, and four TD’s. That’s a small sample size of what could be to come. He’s also in a very high-powered Bruce Arians-run offense. With one of the best three-WR sets out there, DJ will not be able to be completely focused on by any defense. Unless of course… You’d rather get destroyed through the air and let Larry Fitzgerald single-handedly destroy your playoff hopes after insane heroics from Aaron Rodgers and Jeff Janis, but who would be silly enough to leave any of those three receivers wide open anyway, right? The bitter Packer in me has arisen, but nonetheless — David Johnson will rarely if ever, have the box stacked against him. As opposed to Gurley, who’s going to have to get used to it. AP has managed just fine, even when teams try it, it just doesn’t help from a fantasy perspective as an owner of either.
Next: So what's the conclusion?
Conclusion?
If David Johnson can lock up the workhorse load immediately, there’s no doubt in my mind that he surpasses Gurley in PPR formats.
If he starts slow, or Arians decide to roll out CJ’1’K more often han we all expect, it’ll be Gurley. David Johnson has the higher ceiling in PPR formats, while Gurley has the highest floor by far. The question becomes, what kind of fantasy player are you?
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Would you rather take the guy you know is locked in to 20 touches a game but could struggle with ineffectiveness and have to worry about the possible negative effects from game flow? Or, would you rather aim for the stars and go for David Johnson, where there is a chance you get burned and his workload remains miniscule. To me, it’s David Johnson. The potential he has in PPR formats is that of Le’Veon Bell, and even if Johnson and Ellington are mixed in, as long as his snap count remains above 50-55%, you won’t be completely ruined by DJ. My advice: safety/floor fans go Gurley, Upside/some volatility risk takers, take Johnson. My Fantasy CPR colleague, Michael Horvath just wrote an in-depth piece on the Gurley versus Johnson battle which you can read here for his take on one of the best debates in fantasy football.
Next: Todd Gurley or David Johnson?
Personally, I’m going David Johnson every single time, but like I stated earlier, it’s insanely close and the case can be made for either candidate — but in PPR, DJ gets the edge for me.