Here are three things to watch for as the Summer Split comes to an end in the NALCS.
As the NALCS Summer Split comes to a close, we can reflect a little on the Split as a whole. We’ve seen so many things: Phoenix 1 finally starting to get it together, the mercurial nature of Cloud 9, the resurgence of CLG, and Team Liquid looking like a strong contender. As we draw nearer to playoffs time, here are three things to be on the lookout for in Week 8.
1. TSM’s current level of dominance won’t change
Team Solomid has been the most impressive team of the Split, and it’s not even close. Biofrost, Bjergsen, and Doublelift have the three highest KDAs of the Split. Doublelift is only behind two in total kills to Cloud 9’s Jensen. Biofrost is second in overall assists. You have to go down 40 places to find anyone from TSM in the total minutes played stat because their games have been won so quickly. It’s one thing to go 14-0, it’s completely another thing to go 14-0 the way TSM has.
This week, TSM has 3-11 Phoenix 1 and 7-7 Team Envy. Neither of these teams pose a threat to them on paper at all. If everything goes as planned, this weekend should be a breeze for TSM. However, these types of things never truly go as planned. TSM has created a standard of excellence for themselves, a level of play that no one else in NA has been able to match consistently.
Statistically, it shouldn’t be possible to be this dominant. You can’t really ban away top champions from Doublelift and Bjergsen, because they’ve been so good across the board. You can’t really counter-pick them, because every time that happens TSM’s superior teamwork wins out in lane. You can beat them individually, but not all at once. You can try to force them into bad teamfights, but they won’t take them.
TSM has a chance to be beaten, but it isn’t this week. Phoenix 1 is improved, but not enough. Team Envy is good, but not good enough.
The only team with an on-paper realistic shot to beat TSM is Immortals, and they play next week.
2. If Sneaky and Jensen play well, Cloud 9 will win both series
No two players have had to carry their team like Sneaky and Jensen have had to. Cloud 9 has had to scrap for anything and everything they’ve won this split, even though they’re a very respectable 8-6. Outside of Sneaky and Jensen, the rest of Cloud 9 has been ridiculously unpredictable. Meteos could tank an entire team’s damage on Rek’Sai, or he could get caught clearing out pink wards while his own inhibitor dies.
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Without Hai, the team’s former prolific shotcaller, Cloud 9 has seemed lost at many points since his retirement in 2015. Cloud 9 became a fan favorite in addition to a great team due to their hyperaggressive play and decision making. We’ve seen glimpses of this in the Summer Split, especially in the game against Apex where they faked the dragon contention and sent Sneaky and Jensen uncontested into the enemy base, winning the game. We’ve also seen them sloppy and disorganized, like that halfassed baron shotcall while their base died in the last game.
Despite all of these things going wrong, Cloud 9 is still in 4th place and in position to challenge for 3rd. Individually, Sneaky and Jensen have been incredible. The problems with Cloud 9 aren’t going to be fixed overnight, so while they head to the doctor, Sneaky and Jensen will have to hold the line. When these two are on, it’s nearly impossible to stop Cloud 9. If they play well, Cloud 9 will win both games relatively handily.
3. The last four playoff spots are up for grabs
We know two of the six playoff teams: TSM (14-0) and Immortals (13-1). These last two weeks are full of matches that will determine who breaks in and who will be fighting to not be relegated.
CLG, a traditionally dominant team, had one of their worst regular season campaigns in recent history. They’re tied for 5th with Team Envy, a team likely to pick up at least one loss this weekend against TSM, and are in for a tough match against Cloud 9. If Team Envy doesn’t pick up at least one of those two series, then the door is completely open for CLG to secure a playoff spot.
If Phoenix 1 can pull off a win this weekend, they’ll be in a good position to sneak into the playoffs. Echo Fox and NRG are likely to take home 0-2 records this weekend, and Apex is likely to go 0-2 next weekend. If none of those teams upset anyone and Phoenix 1 continues their upward trend, they might have a chance to escape relegation and potentially get into the playoffs.
As of right now, it’s likely to be Team Liquid, Team Envy, Cloud 9, and CLG, but honestly, anything could happen with how things are turning out.
Week 8 will begin on Friday with a 5:00 p.m. matchup between Immortals and NRG eSports.
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