As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the New Orleans Pelicans.
With a new coach and some playoff momentum under the belts, the New Orleans Pelicans were hoping to take another step forward last year. Instead, injuries struck again, Anthony Davis regressed in the chaos, and Alvin Gentry wasn’t able to make a dent in their defensive struggles. How did the Pelicans go about addressing those problems this summer?
Inputs: Buddy Hield (SG, NBA Draft pick No. 6); Cheick Diallo (PF, NBA Draft pick No. 33); Solomon Hill (SF, signed for four years, $52 million); E’Twaun Moore (SG, signed for four years, $34 million); Langston Galloway (PG, signed for two years, $10 million); Terrence Jones (PF, signed for one year, $1 million)
Outputs: Ryan Anderson (PF, signed with the Houston Rockets); Eric Gordon (SG, signed with the Houston Rockets); Toney Douglas (PG, released); Luke Babbitt (SF, signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves); James Ennis (SF, signed with the Memphis Grizzlies); Kendrick Perkins (C, unsigned); Jordan Hamilton (SG, unsigned)
Retained: Tim Frazier (PG, signed for two years, $4.1 million)
Pending: Alonzo Gee (SF, unsigned)
Buddy Hield was one of the best players in college basketball last season and his shooting should be an immediate help to a Pelicans offense that will suddenly be without the spacing of Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. However, there are concerns about Hield’s ability to create his own shot and hold his own defensively. Diallo was another nice value pick, a raw but athletic and high-motor big man who could blossom with experience.
The rest of the roster changes were about not overspending and showing up a porous defense. Solomon Hill still has to prove he can make outside shots, but he was very effective in small doses as a small-ball four for the Indiana Pacers last season. E’Twaun Moore can play both guard positions, as can Galloway, and both bring energy on defense. Terrence Jones is coming off a disastrous season in Houston but has shown potential in the past.
Nothing in this offseason is going to dramatically change the fortunes of the Pelicans. But after a few seasons of taking big swings, perhaps a more conservative approach is worth a try.
3 Big Questions
To really dig deep on New Orleans’ offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Pelicans expertise. Nathan Heck (@NathanHeck22) is the co-editor for FanSided’s Pelican Debrief. Matt Cianfrone (@Matt_Cianfrone) is the editor for the HP Basketball Network’s Friendly Bounce. Mason Ginsberg (@MasonGinsberg) is a contributor to Bourbon Street Shots of the TrueHoop Network.
Nathan, Matt, and Mason, were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about New Orleans’ offseason.
Are you more excited about the Pelicans departures (Gordon/Anderson) or their additions this offseason?
Nathan Heck: The amount of times I threw my hands in the air and shouted at the ceiling in frustration last season as a result the team’s defense (or lack thereof) was immeasurable. With the departure of Anderson and Gordon, that number should not touch the Lovecraftian level infinity it hit last season. While I am excited for the new guys, the notion that the team is trying to move away from one dimensional players and embrace versatility is more interesting than any single addition, and I have written about it a good bit for Pelican Debrief. Addition by subtraction is definitely a very real thing. At least, for the sake of my sanity, I sure hope so.
Matt Cianfrone: I agree with Nathan here. The additions are fine pieces but at the end of the day it is hard to get that excited about a bunch of role players, especially considering that some of them looked like they may not be NBA players that long ago. Losing Anderson and Gordon though should make a significant difference in the future though, as the Pelicans no longer have lots of money tied up in players that only help on offense and who they cannot trust to play 75 games or more. That is important for a team that will need to make moves next summer to make sure Anthony Davis stays happy.
Mason Ginsberg: Additions, and it’s not close. I will not miss Eric Gordon for one second; he was a good spot-up shooter who could handle the ball in a pinch, but that’s it. I will miss Anderson both on and off the court, but he was so bad defensively that it almost negated everything he brought to the table offensively. As for the additions, they represent a major shift in philosophy by the front office. Apart from Jrue and Davis, the Pels basically had a team of one-way players with limited basketball IQ — Gordon, Anderson, Asik, Evans, etc. Their focus this summer, on the other hand, was on smart, hard-working players who can add value on both ends of the court. The team might not have as many flashy names getting big minutes, but they now have a deeper roster of two-way players who will fit Gentry’s system and the Pelicans’ culture.
Buddy Hield will be for the Pelicans next year.
Nathan Heck: Streaky. The unguardable barrage of threes will be on display multiple times throughout the season, but there will also be nights he posts some absolutely ghoulish zero for eights from beyond the arc. With the trajectory the team is on, though, that is perfectly fine. Unlike last season where everyone was looking for the team to move into contention, the expectations are more centered around growth for the 2016-17 season. Letting him get his feet wet and make mistakes is all part of the learning process and should pay off in spades in subsequent campaigns. Heck, I even argued he should start.
Matt Cianfrone: Underwhelming to a lot of people. The fact of the matter is that rookies don’t often have great debut seasons and Hield should not be expected to be any different. I think there are real reasons to doubt his actual potential but if he can knock down open threes at around a 38 percent clip and not tank the Pelicans defense I would consider that a success. Unfortunately, some Pelicans fans are deeming Buddy the guy to save the franchise and keep Anthony Davis in town long term and I can’t imagine a season of just shooting help and average defense makes that group happy.
Mason Ginsberg: Polarizing. It feels to me like the immediate expectations for Buddy among the fanbase vary incredibly wildly. Personally, I expect him to be about a replacement-level player in his rookie year; to be honest, a slightly worse version of Eric Gordon isn’t a bad bet. Hield will need time to adjust to the speed of the NBA game, particularly on the defensive end. That being said, he will certainly get much better looks alongside players like Davis and Holiday than he did in summer league playing with a bunch of D-League level talent. Overall, I expect Hield to be a slight positive on offense this year who can knock down threes and space the floor, but a clear negative defensively. And you know what? That’s totally fine. He is a rookie. I just hope that more casual fans don’t expect him to be New Orleans’ hero and set themselves up for disappointment.
Do the additions of Terrence Jones and Solomon Hill imply that Anthony Davis may go full(ish)-time center next year?
Nathan Heck: I think this season will essentially act as a sales pitch to Davis for him to play center full time. He already played over half of his minutes at the five last season, and I expect that number to reach nearly 65 percent in the coming season. Alvin Gentry will have the option to put interesting lineups involving combinations of Pondexter, Hill, Jones and Cunningham on the floor with Davis, and those squads will be able to streak up and down the floor as well as switch constantly on the defensive end. If the team can show Davis that playing center is the path to success, I am confident he will find himself there officially to start the subsequent season despite his noted opposition to the idea.
Matt Cianfrone: It should but everything we have ever heard from Davis and his camp says that he does not like that idea so I won’t confidently say yes until I see it. That said I also can’t blame Davis. He still has yet to play 70 games in a season in his career and banging with those bigger centers full time won’t make that any easier. Davis at center full time is part of the Pelicans ultimate ceiling but I don’t think it is going to be a real thing yet.
Mason Ginsberg: I’m going to give the cliché consultant answer here — “it depends.” I think Gentry will continue to be more liberal in his usage of AD at center depending on opponent, especially given the new additions. I still think that the Pelicans will avoid playing him at center too much against the likes of Dwight Howard and other bigger, stronger players, but you’ll start to see him at the 5 more and more against the less physically imposing types. I also think Asik will have a better season this upcoming year now that the Pelicans’ defense won’t have multiple revolving doors around the perimeter, which will allow Davis to be a more effective help defender rather than both trying to cover for incompetence in the back court.
Trading offense for defense
Things were particularly ugly for the New Orleans Pelicans on defense last season, replaying struggles that have plagued them for the past few seasons. Injuries took their toll, eroding the rotation, but a lot of the problems were structural. That is to say, it’s hard to assemble a competent defense with historically bad defenders.
Two of the main culprits, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson, are now gone and in the place the Pelicans have brought in a collection of scrappy, hard-working role players. The most obvious commonality of this group is that they have very little in common with Gordon and Anderson.
The graph below plots all players who played at least 500 minutes last season by their Offensive and Defensive Box Plus-Minus. The graph is neatly divided into four quadrants separating players who are good or bad on each side of the ball.
Anderson and Gordon were some of the most dramatic examples of the “Good Offense, Bad Defense.” Three of the four new Pelicans land in the “Bad Offense, Good Defense” quadrant (I’m using a two-year average for Terrence Jones since last year was such an injury-ridden aberration). None of the new additions is considered an above-average player by Box Plus-Minus, and the metric doesn’t rate Moore’s defense very well either.
With some health and a little luck, the Pelicans should be much better this season. But regardless of where they finish, this offseason implies that they will at least be much better defensively.
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