Dallas Mavericks offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Dallas Mavericks.

Each Dallas Mavericks offseason is the same — trying to add enough talent to compete for another title before Dirk Nowitzki’s basketball career winds down. How did the Mavs do this summer?

Inputs: A.J. Hammons (C, NBA Draft pick No. 46); Harrison Barnes (SF, signed for four years, $94 million); Andrew Bogut (C, traded from the Golden State Warriors); Dorian Finney-Smith (SF, signed for three years, partially guaranteed minimum); Nicolas Brussino (SF, signed for three years, partially guaranteed minimum); Seth Curry (SG, signed for two years, $6 million); Quincy Acy (PF, signed for two years, veteran’s minimum);  Jonathan Gibson (SG, signed for three years, partially guaranteed minimum)

Outputs: Chandler Parsons (SF, signed with the Memphis Grizzlies); JaVale McGee (C, unsigned); Raymond Felton (PG, signed with the Los Angeles Clippers); Jeremy Evans (PF, traded to the Indiana Pacers); Zaza Pachulia (C, signed with the Golden State Warriors); Charlie Villanueva (PF, unsigned); David Lee (PF, unsigned)

Retained: Dirk Nowitzki (PF, signed for two years, $40 million); Deron Williams (PG, signed for one year, $10 million); Dwight Powell (PF, signed for four years, $37 million)

Pending: None

The biggest move of the Mavericks’ summer was adding two-fifths of the Golden State Warriors starting lineup. Andrew Bogut is a defensive upgrade over Zaza Pachulia and is at least as good a passer, which should help keep the ball moving on offense. There are plenty of questions about Harrison Barnes and how good he actually can be outside the context of the Warriors. His ceiling is probably something like Chandler Parsons. At worst he’s a versatile defender and a consistent outside shooter.

Seth Curry finished the year strongly for the Sacramento Kings and should add some more shooting to the Mavericks bench. Acy, his teammate with the Kings last season, is an active defensive body who flashed a reliable jumper towards the end of last year. If Barnes or Powell struggle at all, he could end up playing a lot more. The rest of the additions — Hammons, Finney-Smith, Brussino, and Gibson — are interesting in theory but probably won’t have many opportunities this year.

Powell was a somewhat curious signing, at least by the size of his deal. He’s athletic and has defensive potential but can’t shoot a lick and just turned 25. Williams had his moments last season and on a one year deal is a reasonable fit. And, of course, the two-year deal for Dirk sets an obvious line. Two more seasons to try and get this done.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Dallas’ offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Mavericks expertise. Isaac Harris (@_Isaac_Harris_) is an editor for FanSided’s The Smoking Cuban. Andy Tobolowsky (@andytobo) is a contributor to the HP Network’s Upside and Motor and covers the Mavericks for WFAA.com. Kirk Henderson (@KirkSeriousFace) is a senior writer for SBNation’s Mavs Moneyball.

Isaac, Andy, and Kirk were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Dallas’ offseason.

Explain the appeal of the newly re-signed Dwight Powell.

Isaac Harris: Well I’ve never been the biggest fan of Dwight Powell, but I don’t mind the contract as much. With the cap spike taking place, I was quite scared Dallas would be bringing Powell back for an annual salary in the double-digits. The appeal rides on two things that Dallas is trying to push with their roster movements this summer: athleticism and youth. Athleticism is realistically Powell’s only strength and he turns 25 this summer. Dallas has high hopes that Powell can develop a quality jump shot and put on enough weight to battle down low. If he doesn’t develop his shot, I wouldn’t be surprised if Quincy Acy eats into his minutes.

Andy Tobolowsky: I suppose that I can do this, while keeping in mind that I think it’s a horrible signing. Dwight is like a lot of other guys in the league, but less so — your Michael Beasleys, perhaps in a few years your Jahlil Okafor. They’re guys who clearly have not just one but several skills that are almost NBA level, but 1) it’s not clear any actually are (in Dwight’s case probably not), and 2) People are really confused about how hard it is to overcome their enormous deficits. You see a guy like Dwight and you’re like, athleticism, rebounding, dunking, he’s almost there on all of those. But it’s a long-form troll job. There’s no reason to think he’ll ever do any of them at an NBA level.

Kirk Henderson: He looks like he should be good. Beyond that, I don’t understand what the Mavericks are doing here other than supposably taking a low cost gamble. I’ve heard the Mavs signed him to this particular contract before the Nets could offer him a larger deal. Not a great reason to lock into a player. Powell is a reasonably athletic tall person who doesn’t have one definable NBA skill. He’s an okay finisher around the rim and he rebounds pretty well considering his frame. Past that, he’s not very good. He’s not an incredible athlete like Brandan Wright and he can’t stretch the floor at all (29 percent beyond three feet last season). He’s too slight to play center and the aforementioned shooting woes means he has to fit just right with the rest of the line up. Keep in mind he was so bad last season that David Lee became a good idea. He seems to have put on some muscle this summer so maybe that will help and I understand big men develop at a slower rate than other positions, but he turns 25 on July 20th. He is who is who he is, which is a below replacement level big man. They could’ve gotten the same production for less money.

Harrison Barnes will be                      this season.

Isaac Harris: Growing. For what it’s worth, I was pushing for this move as soon as Parsons went down with his second season ending knee surgery. I’m not saying he is James Harden by any means, but it’s hard know what the 24-year old can be outside of his all-star teammates in Golden State. The unknown factor is intriguing. He isn’t the greatest playmaker in the world, but I think his “lack of dribbling” skills are way overblown. He will have his first year struggles under a new system and new role, but nothing that he can’t overcome. I expect a 15/5/3 season from Barnes. He’s also missed only 21 games over his four year career, the same amount that Chandler Parsons missed just last season. Now, Dallas has a defensive wing combo with him and Wesley Matthews that can matchup with anyone in the league. With his experience at running the four, fans should expect to see Matthews, Barnes, and Justin Anderson on the floor at the same time this season. With where Dallas was at after the initial free agency weekend, combined with the goal of putting a competitive team around Nowitzki, handing Barnes the money was something that had to be done. From someone who has followed Barnes since his high school days in Iowa, I’m all in on Harrison Barnes in Dallas.

Andy Tobolowsky: Fine, I guess? I’m excited about the defensive potential of a lineup with HB, Wes, and Bogut, especially compared to other recent Mavericks teams. Deron, even, is a better defender than they’ve had at his spot in some time. But I don’t see where scoring comes from, and I don’t think Barnes is magically going to be start being able to create off the dribble. Worse case scenario, he can’t do that AND not playing with Steph and Klay means all of his shots are too hard for him. But I bet he can still shoot 37 percent from three and D it up.

Kirk Henderson: He’s going to be bad. Okay, maybe he won’t be bad, but he’s going to be terrible relative to expectations and cap percentage. Many fans reasonably expect Barnes to put up better numbers than Chandler Parsons (15-5-2.5 during his Dallas stint). Considering he’ll be the second highest paid Maverick ever (Dirk made about $600,000 more in 2013-14), this is a reasonable expectation. I just don’t have any sort of faith that he’ll be able to do it. He can’t dribble or pass and you don’t pay a guy 23 percent of the cap to hit catch-and-shoot threes.

With Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes aboard, how good can the Mavericks’ defense be?

Isaac Harris: This all depends on how many minutes Dirk averages a night. We all love Dirk, but the moment he steps foot on the floor, he is a defensive liability. With that aside, Dallas will be better than last year. Bogut can rebound and pass like Zaza, while possessing an above the rim presence like Mejri. Having him next to Dirk or in the small ball lineup at the five will be huge. Barnes is an immediate upgrade to Parsons on the wing and allows Dallas to let Wesley Matthews take a break some nights and focus on his scoring. With Carlisle at the helm and hopefully some injury luck, I think Dallas could finish as a top 12 defense this season.

Andy Tobolowsky: Better than any since 2011, but the problem is if and when Bogut goes down it could be really bad. Wes and Deron are both older and may be fragile, but Dirk and Mejri are the real problem. Last year, the Mavs had to win most of the close games they won by scoring every trip down and hoping the other team missed at least once. They won’t have to do that this year but also may not be able to do it on the other end. But if you get to that late game lineup and it turns out to be, say, Barea, Wes, Barnes, Dirk, Mejri, just from the predictable injuries, they’re going to lose even the games they might have won last year.

Kirk Henderson: The Mavericks were a middle of the road defense last year, so while I think they might look better, I’m curious as to how good they will actually be by the mid-season mark. Any defense that has Dirk is going to be problematic, but if Bogut can play 65 games I suspect the Mavericks end up between the 10th and 15th best defense in the league. Not sure it will really matter though, since the West is a killing field.

Making the easy ones

Every offense is thrilled with an open three-pointer. Not every team is adept at actually creating those opportunities for their players, and not everyone can make them efficiently. The Mavericks finished fifth in the league in three-point attempts last season, but a dismal 23rd in three-point percentage.

Things were just as bad if we filter down to just threes classified as open or wide open by the NBA’s player tracking statistics. The Mavericks finished sixth in open and wide open three-point attempts per game and 19th in accuracy on those attempts.

However, several of the Mavericks offseason moves should have a dramatic effect on their outside shooting. Raymond Felton and Charlie Villanueva attempted 183 and 152 open or wide open three-pointers last season, making 29.0 and 26.3 percent, respectively. With both players off the roster, we can assume that a good number of those attempts would be reallocated to Harrison Barnes (40.0 percent on open or wide open threes last season) and Seth Curry (48.2 percent).

It remains to be seen how diverse the offensive games of Barnes and Curry will be as they are given more responsibilities but the one thing they can definitely do is make open jumpers, which is good news for the Mavs’ offense.

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