DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 21

Jan 24, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; General view of Draft Kings logo on an advertising LED screen during the Denver Broncos game against the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos defeated the Patriots 20-18 to advance to the Super Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 21

There are only two games in the afternoon session today. We have to choose wisely to separate ourselves from the rest of the pack. Let’s take a look at the past stats to see if we can find a few players that may not be widely owned. Can you afford not to take one or both of the top pitching options?

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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.

For you first time players, if you would like $25 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!

Next: Pitcher Picks

Jul 15, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the sixth inning at Nationals Park. The Nationals won 5-1. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bet:

Stephen Strasburg ($13,300): The Dodgers are hitting just .182 against Strasburg in 66 at bats with only one extra base hit (a double by Adrian Gonzalez) and four runs to go with an impressive 21 strikeouts. Strasburg may be 100% owned this afternoon, and with good reason. No one else comes close to his potential this afternoon.

Honorable Mention:

CC Sabathia ($6,600):

The career numbers between Chris Tillman and Sabathia against their respective teams are eerily similar. The Yankees are hitting .274 against Tillman in 223 at bats with nine homers, 27 RBI, and 49 strikeouts. The Orioles are hitting .276 against Sabathia in 293 at bats with 11 homers, 40 RBI, and 65 strikeouts. Sabathia has more strikeouts, but has given up 13 more runs in only 70 more at bats. Flip a coin to decide who is the best bet. Actually, Sabathia may be due to less left-handed bats in the Oriole lineup. The fact that Sabathia has not given up a run in two starts (12 innings) against the Orioles this year clinches it for CC. Tillman has a 4.26 ERA against the Yankees in his two starts.

Dark Horse:

Julio Urias ($6,000): Urias gave up two runs on six hits and a walk in five innings while striking out six against the Nationals back on June 22. Today he gets an impossible matchup against the undefeated Strasburg, but I trust him far more than guessing who will get beat up the least between Sabathia and Tillman. The bad part here is that Urias has only gone more than five innings twice in eight starts, and has never gone more than six innings. That severely limits his upside, and that likely wont change this afternoon.

Next: More Notes For 7-21

Jul 18, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles center fielder Adam Jones (10) blows a bubble while standing in the batters box against the New York Yankees during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Has there not been a stack worthy of using against Chris Tillman? Tillman has pitched well (13-2, 3.29 ERA) so far this year, but the past stats support using some Yankees. Didi Gregorius ($3,700) is 7-13(.538) with two walks, three doubles, a triple, and two RBI against Tillman. Mark Teixeira (2,700) is 9-26(.346) with four walks, two doubles, and three RBI against Tillman. Love him or hate him, just use him. Alex Rodriguez ($2,500) has feasted off of Tillman in his career. ARod is 7-19(.368) with three walks, five homers, and ten RBI against him. Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,700) is 10-43(.233) with four walks, two doubles, and a solo homer against Tillman. Brett Gardner ($4,500) is 10-37(.270) with seven walks, three doubles, and four RBI. Carlos Beltran ($3,100) is 4-16 with walks, a homer, and two RBI against Tillman. In this small of a slate, I wouldn’t blame you if you used the entire Yankee lineup with the exceptions of Starlin Castro (1-6) and Chase Headley (3-18)!

Even when CC Sabathia was at his best, he had trouble with the Orioles. You know I’m advocating a stack here. Adam Jones ($3,400) is 19-67(.284) with four walks, four doubles, a triple, four homers, and a whopping 14 RBI off of CC. Manny Machado ($4,300) is 10-34(.294) with two walks, four doubles, a homer, and seven RBI off Sabathia. Nolan Reimold ($2,700) should get a start tonight considering he is 13-35(.371) with four walks, two doubles, a triple, two homers, and five RBI against CC. Mark Trumbo ($4,700) is 6-22(.273) with a homer and two RBI. Chris Davis ($3,800) is only 6-29(.207) with three walks, a homer, and three RBI. J.J. Hardy ($3,200) is 10-33(.303) with a walk, five doubles, a homer, and six RBI. Matt Wieters ($2,500) is only 6-36(.167) with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and two driven in. If you don’t trust the Yankees, you can use Orioles. There are plenty of good offensive options this afternoon.

Adrian Gonzalez ($3,700) is 4-9 with a double and a RBI off of Strasburg. It is the Dodgers’ only extra base hit against him. A.J. Ellis ($2,000) at 2-6 is the only other Dodger that has posted a career average above the Mendoza line against Strasburg.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!

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Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!