DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 21
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 21
Seven more games are on tap for the evening, which makes this the larger tournament of the day. There were some good options in the afternoon. What about tonight? There is only one pitcher that costs more than $10,000. Is he worth paying up for? Who are the great mid-range options?
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Tyler Duffey gave up six runs on ten hits while striking out only three batters against the Red Sox on June 10th. Stay away from this as well.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Steven Wright ($9,300): Yes, the Twins are hitting .264 against Wright, but they only have one extra base hit (a Max Kepler double) and two runs off of him. They have only struck out nine times, but this is a small slate, and he has proven that he is proficient at limiting damage. He should be one of the best pitchers of the night.
Jerad Eickhoff ($7,300): The Marlins hold a nice .268 average against Eickhoff in 41 at bats and have slugged two homers, but they have only scored three runs and struck out seven times. Justin Bour, who is currently on the disabled list, has one of those home runs. If you take Bour’s stats out, the average drops to .229 and they only have one homer and two runs. Eickhoff should be a very good option, especially for the price, tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Adam Wainwright ($10,400): The Padres are hitting a respectable .247 against Wainwright in 81 at bats with two homers, eight runs, and only eight strikeouts. The lack of strikeouts and pedestrian past stats put him in this tier. He is on a roll lately and facing a pretty bad team, but the Padres have scored a few runs here and there. What if this is here or there? This is a high price to pay for a less than dominant history.
Sonny Gray ($6,100): The Rays are hitting just .206 against Gray in 131 at bats. Great, right? The bad news is that Gray has given up seven long balls and 21 RBI. The 28 strikeouts help mitigate the damage, as does his low price. Gray’s ERA is nearly two runs above his career mark. If he is going to turn around this season, it will start here. Are you willing to take the chance on him?
Dark Horses:
Matt Garza ($5,600): This year has not been kind to Garza (1-3, 5.74 ERA, 1.72 WHIP), but the Pirates are hitting just .217 against him in 83 at bats with two homers, seven runs and 19 strikeouts. If he gets somewhere near those numbers, he will be well worth his price.
Tom Koehler ($5,300): History is on Koehler’s side. The Phillies are only hitting .225 against him in 138 at bats with just one home run and 34 strikeouts. The bad news? They have scored 19 runs. The strikeouts help offset the damage, but Koehler is one of the better low-range options you will find. So is…..
Andrew Cashner ($5,000): Cashner is one of the cheapest options on the board, and he boasts the best past history of any pitcher going tonight. The Cardinals are hitting just .194 off of him in 62 at bats with one homer, only four runs, and a healthy 14 strikeouts. His 5.05 ERA on the season may scare some of you off, but Cashner is pitching for a ticket out of San Diego. You can bet a lot of contenders will be watching to see if he can handle the Cardinals.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
You may want to stack Tigers against James Shields despite his recent resurgence. MIguel Cabrera ($4,400) is 20-57(.351) with six walks, nine doubles, two homers, and eight RBI. Victor Martinez ($3,500) is 13-47(.277) with four doubles, a homer, and six RBI. Ian Kinsler ($4,700) is only 11-53(.208) but he has four walks, two doubles, three homers, and five RBI against Shields. Cameron Maybin ($3,700) is 5-12 with a walk and two RBI against Shields. Mike Aviles ($2,800) is worth using if he plays. Aviles is 10-36(.278) with a walk, a double, two homers, and three RBI off Shields.
Oswaldo Arcia ($3,100) is 2-5 with a homer and four RBI against Sonny Gray. Logan Forsythe ($3,300) is 2-5 with a solo homer. Brandon Guyer ($2,500) is 2-4 off of Gray. Both hits are home runs, and he has driven in five. Kevin Keirmaier ($3,700) is 3-10 with a double, a homer, and three RBI off of Gray. Evan Longoria ($4,600) is 5-17(.294) with a walk, a double, a homer, and a pair of RBI. Nick Franklin ($3,400) has hit the other home run, but it is his only hit in six at bats.
You can probably stack just about any White Sox hitter you want against Mike Pelfrey. The Sox are hitting .298 against him in 151 at bats, but have never taken him deep. The production is scattered all across the board, so there isn’t one guy that has done the damage, but everyone with the exception of Brett Lawrie (1-11) and J.B. Shuck (1-11) have hit him well. Happy hunting!
Next: More Notes For 7-21
Wil Myers ($4,800) is a perfect 2-2 with a single, a homer, and two RBI against Adam Wainwright. Adam Rosales ($2,200) is 2-6 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Wainwright.
DJ LeMahieu ($4,100) is 5-7 with a pair of RBI against Mike Foltynewicz. Carlos Gonzalez ($5,300) is 2-5 with a double and a RBI.
Andrew McCutchen ($4,300) is only 4-15(.267) against Matt Garza, but he has thee walks, a homer, and two RBI without striking out. David Freese ($3,100) is 3-12 with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Garza.
Ryan Braun ($4,300) is 7-24(.292) with eight walks, a homer, and five RBI against Francisco Liriano in his career.
Cody Asche ($3,600) is only 4-17(.235) against Tom Koehler, but he has a triple, a homer, and four RBI off of him.
Danny Valencia ($4,200) is 5-11 with a walk, two doubles, two homers, and three RBI against Rays lefty Matt Moore. Billy Butler ($3,600) is 3-9 with a double and two RBI, but his at bats have been scarce lately.
Marcell Ozuna ($3,300) is 2-6 with a double and a solo homer against Jerad Eickhoff.
A.J. Pierzynski ($3,200) is 4-8 with a double, a homer, and three RBI against Chad Bettis. Nick Markakis ($3,900) is 3-8 with three walks and two RBI. Ender Inciarte ($4,700) is 3-6 with a walk, a double, and a RBI off of Bettis.
It isn’t much, but Robbie Grossman ($3,300) is 2-4 with three walks and a RBI off of Steven Wright. Kurt Suzuki ($2,900) is 4-6 with a RBI against Wright.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!