NFL Fantasy Football 2016 Season Preview: Round 1

NFL Fantasy Football Preview: Round 1

As hot temps reach their peak and the dog days of summer roll past us, one can’t help but think about the upcoming NFL season, and, of course, Fantasy Football! For me, this is the time of year that takes the longest to pass. I will be studying hours on end until my season long drafts take place. Digging up sleepers for the later rounds, determining how far I’m willing to reach to ensure I get ‘my guy’, wondering if this is the year you see a decline in that back over age 30, or that receiver approaching 35. Fantasy football is upon us…….FINALLY!

Over the next several weeks I will write articles with insight on various topics for your NFL Fantasy Football season long drafts. Sleepers, who to fade, who to take before their ADP, etc, etc. Today my focus is what approach you should take in the early rounds of your season long drafts.

Over the years I have been burned in the early rounds like no other!  I used to take the hot names, the guys destined to have a breakout seasons, the guys who still had something to prove, or the guys who were can’t miss fantasy studs, only to be left disappointed for an entire season. I learned a lot from those mistakes, I was a “reacher”, a follower for the flashy name. The utmost important advice I can give you for your early round picks in any format for your season long league is to draft players with a high floor.

We hear the term high ceiling all the time in fantasy sports, but we rarely listen to those players who have a high floor. If you are going to spend a 1^st  or 2nd round pick on someone, you obviously have to make sure that player will be productive. You can’t take a risk on someone because he is the hot name, had a great end to last season, or a great preseason. You have to take someone who’s floor will put them in the upper tiers of his position. Don’t take chances on someone you ‘think’ will go off this year, be safe early. If you feel like you are reaching in the early rounds, you are likely taking someone you shouldn’t.

Next: First Round Preview -Players to Avoid

I definitely have a few players I will be avoiding early if I have a chance to draft them.  Jamal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, Dez Bryant, and Thomas Rawls are players I will be avoiding early on in my drafts.  Jamal Charles is coming off another devastating ACL injury, and nearing the age of 30.  That is going to keep me away from him.  He also has Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware behind him that will cut into his touches.  Andy Reid‘s system has produced great fantasy production for running backs, the only problem for this year is determining who, if anyone, will take the lead role this season.  If someone other than Charles emerges as the lead back, I would consider him, but not Charles.

Le’Veon Bell likely will be serving a 4 game suspension as the season begins.  That scares me away from taking him in the first 2 rounds.  We know DeAngelo Williams is a more than serviceable back up, which he proved last year.

We also know that Bell has been injury prone during his young career.  With not getting a chance to be in football shape for 4 weeks, who’s to say he is going to come right back into the starting lineup week 5?  If the Steelers are rolling right along with Williams, we may not see Bell until late October.  He could come back and be the fantasy stud he is expected to be, but I’m willing to say his chances of coming back and getting injured are just as good.  I would still draft him, but only if I already have 2 good starters on my team.

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Thomas Rawls is the 3rd running back I will be avoiding this season.  He is coming off a brutal ankle injury that ended his season last year.  He may not be ready for the start of camp, which may have been a good reason the Seahawks added 3 running backs in the draft.  Seattle drafted C.J. Prosise in the 3rd, Alex Collins in the 5th, and Zac Brooks in the 7th, and all are expected to compete for a role in the offense.  Speaking of offense, after how well Russell Wilson moved the ball through the air during the 2nd half of last season, that pass heavy offense may carry over to this season.

The only receiver to make my list to avoid early on is Dez Bryant.  He is coming off a very disappointing injury plagued 2015 season.  He did not have much production because of a foot injury, as well as the awful production from the quarterback position after Romo went down.  He and Romo both enter this season healthy, but teams in the NFC East sure did make some moves that should effect Bryant this year.  The Washington Redskins added a top 3 corner in Josh Norman, and the New York Giants added Janoris Jenkins to their secondary that features Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and 1st round pick Eli Apple.   Bryant will face those teams for at least 4 games this season.  Dallas is also expected to run the ball more behind their top rated offensive line to try and keep QB Tony Romo healthy.  This will also likely eat into Dez Bryant’s production.

Next: Round 2 Running Back Targets

There are going to be plenty of options to take early in your drafts that will be much better choices than those I listed above.  Now, I can’t see into the future of course, one or more of those players listed above may very well go off this season and make their owners happy they took them, we have no idea!  But I do know this, I will not be one of those owners.