Fantasy Football: Quarterback Draft Strategy

Fantasy Football: Quarterback Draft Strategy

Quarterbacks put up the most fantasy points year in and year out, but that doesn’t mean they’re the most valuable position on your fantasy football team. In fact, you don’t even need to draft a quarterback until round 10 or later, and you can still end up with a very respectable quarterback, and an even more formidable squad by using your higher picks on more important positions. Let me explain.

Drafting running backs with your first-round picks used to be essential, but now the wide receiver position is becoming more and more of a priority. This is not only because the NFL has transformed to a pass-heavy league, but also because running backs are extremely replaceable; it’s a lot easier to find a successful running back in later rounds and through the waiver wire than it is for any other skill position.

For instance, Cardinals’ Running Back David Johnson and the Falcons’ Devonta Freeman were frequent late-round picks last year, but they both finished amongst the top of the league. This isn’t the case for every running back, as Adrian Peterson was a top-5 pick last year and led the league in rushing.

Next: Which QB's should we target?

When discussing the quarterback position, guys like Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Cam Newton are likely to come off the board in rounds 3-5; that’s where each respective player’s average draft position (ADP) is listed by Fantasy Football Calculator. Each guy is a stud, no question about it; but is it worth risking a high-level pick on that position while ignoring a more valuable pick like a wide receiver or running back?

Receivers like Amari Cooper, T.Y. Hilton, Demaryius Thomas, Julian Edelman, and more are projected to fall in between those same rounds; furthermore, backs like Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy, and DeMarco Murray are projected to between rounds 3-5, too. Is it worth drafting an elite quarterback over these guys? I don’t think so. Let’s see what the numbers tell us. 

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Rodgers finished with 305 fantasy points (ESPN Standard Scoring) last season; Brady and Wilson both with 344; and Cam finished with a league-high 391 fantasy points. But when you look at quarterbacks who were drafted in later rounds last year, there isn’t a drastic decline in production. In fact, you can find late-round studs at the position while focusing on the more-important skill positions in the earlier rounds. Last season, Kirk Cousins finished eighth in the league with 295 points; Matthew Stafford came in ninth with 292 points; Philip Rivers racked in 286 points, good enough for 11th in the league; and Jameis Winston finished 13th with 279 fantasy points. Get the picture? Not yet?

Each of these four quarterbacks are projected to go in rounds 10 or later; you can steal Winston in the 14th round, according to his ADP. Sure, who wouldn’t like Aaron Rodgers on their fantasy team? But is he really worth your fourth-round draft pick? I definitely don’t think so, and the numbers back me up. Do yourself a favor: focus on drafting running backs and receivers, and maybe even an elite tight end, in your top draft picks.

Next: Fantasy Football Round 1 Strategy

Elite fantasy quarterbacks will be available for you in the 10th round or even later, and you’ll be able to win your league with stud players and average-level quarterbacks by waiting to draft them later in leagues.