Washington Wizards offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Washington Wizards.

After finding themselves with a winning small ball, spread offense recipe in the 2014-15 playoffs, the Washington Wizards worked to make that their new norm last season. They played faster, but less effectively and missed the playoffs. What’s next for the Wizards?

Inputs: Trey Burke (PG, traded from the Utah Jazz); Ian Mahinmi (C, signed for four years, $64 million); Jason Smith (PF, signed for three years, $16 million); Andrew Nicholson (PF, signed for four years, $26 million); Daniel Ochefu (C, signed for three years, partially guaranteed); Tomas Satoransky (SF, signed for three years $9 million)

Outputs: Nene (C, signed with the Houston Rockets); Ramon Sessions (PG, signed with the Charlotte Hornets); Garrett Temple (SG, signed with the Sacramento Kings); J.J. Hickson (PF, unsigned); Jared Dudley (SF, signed with the Phoenix Suns); Alan Anderson (SG, unsigned); Drew Gooden (PF, unsigned)

Retained: Marcus Thornton (SG, signed for one year, veteran’s minimum); Bradley Beal (SG, signed for five years, $128 million)

Pending:  None

We’re going to set aside discussion of Kevin Durant, who opted not to sign with his hometown team, and instead focus on what Washington actually added — starting with significant changes to their bench. Ian Mahinmi had a career season last year for the Pacers, acting as their defensive anchor and really developing as a passer on the short roll. He could prove to be a significant upgrade over what Nene has been able to give the Wizards the past few seasons. Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith are both reasonable jump shooters, but neither has proven three-point range which could cramp spacing. Nicholson did shoot 36 percent on threes last season but on only 114 attempts. Across his first three seasons, he shot 31.5 percent on 130 attempts.

Trey Burke may prove to be a downgrade from Ramon Sessions. He is not the dribble penetrator that Sessions was and hasn’t reliably made three-pointers to this point in his NBA career. The one real potential game-changer for the Wizards is Tomas Satoransky who was one of the leaders for Barcelona the past few seasons. It remains to be seen how much of his versatile offensive game will translate but he’s the one addition that could have a really high upside.

The biggest expenditure of the summer was Bradley Beal’s max deal. It’s a huge investment in a player who has struggled to stay healthy and really fill in the holes in his game. He has the talent to be one of the best shooting guards in the league but continues to struggle with finishing and shot selection. He could be in for a big year. Or he could quickly make the Wizards regret their investment.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Washington’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Wizards expertise. Ben Mehic (@BenMehicNBA) is the editor for FanSided’s Wiz of Awes. Jake Whitacre (@JakeWhitacre) is the site manager for SBNation’s Bullets Forever. Quinten Rosborough (@QRosborough) is a contributor to Bullets Forever.

Ben, Jake, and Quinten were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Washington’s offseason.

How will the new frontcourt additions — Jason Smith, Ian Mahinmi, Andrew Nicholson — affect the team’s pace and style of play?

Ben Mehic: Like Jake said, the roster resembles the one we saw this past season. With that said, having big bodies on the team didn’t hurt the team’s pace. Washington was fifth in pace last year, and that was a direct result of playing smaller and emphasizing the need to utilize John Wall’s speed.

The starting five is capable of playing up-tempo ball. Obviously, the backcourt will thrive in transition, but the Wizards have done a solid job of surrounding them with players who can keep up. Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat can all run. And the same applies to the reserve bigs you mentioned. Andrew Nicholson, Jason Smith, and Ian Mahinmi aren’t Shawn Kemp nor Amar’e Stoudemire, but they’re not Roy Hibbert either.

In terms of the style of play, it should be similar to last year, except the players performing on the court are better, in theory. Instead of having Kris Humphries out there, Washington will depend on Morris. Ian Mahinmi will help them regain their defensive identity too and should be an upgrade over Nene, who’s broken down at this point in his career.

Jake Whitacre: Even though the Wizards swapped out all of the frontcourt reserves from last year’s squad, it sure feels like they’re set up a lot like last year’s roster.

Ian Mahinmi has taken over Nene’s role as the well-paid reserve center who doesn’t provide enough spacing to play alongside Marcin Gortat for long stretches of time. Jason Smith is the new Kris Humphries, who has enough of a jumper to play the 4 at times, but is probably better off playing center because he doesn’t have any of the other necessary skills a stretch 4 needs these days. Andrew Nicholson will take over the Jared Dudley role as the team’s pure stretch four. He lacks Dudley’s defensive IQ, but he’s a better low-post scorer and should do a better job on the glass.

To summarize: They’re still a team that’s going to need to go big a lot to maximize the money they’ve invested in their big men. It would have been nice to see what Markieff Morris could do as a small ball 5, but it’s hard to justify playing him there when Gortat, Mahinmi, and Smith combine to make over $22 million next season.

Quinten Rosborough: Agreed. Despite the new faces, the Wizards are bringing back the same starting five as last year, and with John Wall’s ability to create in transition, Washington should continue to be one of the league’s leaders both in pace, and in early shot clock attempts.

That being said, I do expect to see a much improved bench next year. Offensively, the Wizards second unit really only scored through Nene post ups and Ramon Sessions free throws, and with those two guys now out of the picture, we should hopefully see a much more balanced offensive attack. Plus, Mahinmi’s the type of center a team can anchor their defense around, and hopefully we’ll see fewer third quarter meltdowns as well.

This season, Tomas Satoransky will be                         .

Ben Mehic: This season, Tomas Satoransky will be the reason many people start wearing jean shorts again. Instead of buying a Satoransky jersey, I’m going to dust off my old jean shorts and rock them in public.

But, really, Satoransky will be awesome…or terrible. There’s really no in-between, like Jake said.

Washington has some versatility, but they lack creators. Wall is the only player on the roster that can create offense for himself and others. Some will put Bradley Beal in that category, but until he stops falling down for absolutely no reason, I won’t put much faith into his creating abilities.

Satoransky, at 6-7, can handle the ball well and knows how to manage an offense. He’s long, athletic and has shot over 40 percent from three during his last two seasons with Barcelona. The thing is, the three-point shot is a lot deeper in the NBA than it is in Euroleague and the players are just as quick, athletic and long.

He’s either going to thrive or he’s going to be a disaster. I want Satoransky to do well because I want people to wear jorts again, but no one knows if he’ll be a contributor at the next level.

Jake Whitacre: The reason why the Wizards’ bench is great, or terrible. He’s the only player on the bench who can be an effective playmaker for others. If Summer League and garbage time have shown us anything, Kelly Oubre is much more effective when someone’s setting him up. Trey Burke is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body. Nicholson and Mahinmi both need help getting the ball in effective spots down low. If Satoransky can’t set the table for the rest of the second unit, it’s going to force John Wall to play heavy minutes to keep the offense afloat.

Also, a lineup featuring Buke, Oubre, and Marcus Thornton just sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.

Quinten Rosborough: Just fine.

With Ramon Sessions in Charlotte and Garrett temple in Sacramento, Satoransky has two pairs of shoes to fill — both as a primary ball-handler for the second unit and, as a backup for $127 million dollar man Bradley Beal.

Luckily for Washington though, Satoransky is 6-7 with handles and a mean streak, and spent the last season as the leader of the third-best, non-NBA team in the world. That’s a lot of qualifiers for a guy expected to be the sixth man of a playoff team, but Satoransky became one of the best guards in Europe last year, and will be asked to do a lot for a bench thats lacking in playmakers.

Is All-Rookie team an unrealistic expectation? Probably. But only a handful of first year players are as high on their team’s depth charts as Sato is right now. I think he’s up for the challenge.

Things look a little thin in the backcourt rotation, no?

Ben Mehic: The backcourt is super thin and it’s definitely concerning. Relying on Trey Burke as a primary backup point guard is scary. He’s tiny, can’t play defense and he’s inefficient on the offensive end of the floor. I’m hoping that a change of scenery helps him, like it did Ramon Sessions when he arrived from Sacramento.

Washington is hoping they don’t have to rely on their reserves often, which isn’t the greatest strategy. They re-signed Marcus Thornton with no real logic behind the move. Jarell Eddie is a knock-down shooter, but he’s inexperienced and also can’t play defense.

Ernie Grunfeld has a tendency to start the season lacking in a certain area, only to correct it midway through the year. When the Wizards needed a young big, he added Morris. Maybe he’ll do the same this year. He might have to get creative and acquire guard via trade or something. He did it with Sessions, so it’s possible.

Jake Whitacre: Yep, but depth is always going to be an issue when your backcourt starters are both on max deals and under the age of 26. It’s hard to justify spending big money or using high draft picks on players who won’t play many meaningful minutes short-term or long-term, barring injury.

Problem is, Wall and Beal’s history suggests there will be an injury at some point this season, and when that time comes, it could get dicey. If Satoransky isn’t ready to shoulder the load, Washington is just going to have to roll the dice on any given night that Burke, Oubre, Thornton or Jarell Eddie can get hot to help lighten the load on a given night, because otherwise, it will get ugly.

Quinten Rosborough: Definitely. But the last time the Wizards had a robust backcourt Eddie Jordan was still the head coach, so it’s nothing Wiz fans aren’t used to.

I see Tomas Satoransky’s role as being somewhat Shawn Livingston-adjacent: he should be able to play either guard spot, as well as slip nicely into a Wall/Beal/Satoransky/Porter/Morris Lineup of Mild-Discomfort. But if he can’t? The Wizards will have a serious problem on their hands. The jury’s still out on Trey Burke, and Marcus Thornton hasn’t proven to be much other than a microwave guy at this point in his career.

Worst-case scenario? (Which, in the case of the Wizards often overlaps with the most likely scenario) Look for the team to try and swap one of their bigs for a veteran point guard. Jarret Jack’s from the DMV right?

Fast for the sake of fast

After discovering that a small ball and uptempo approach worked for them during their 2014-15 playoff run, the Washington Wizards tried to carry that strategy into the 2015-16 regular season. They did succeed in pushing the pace — increasing their average possessions per game by nearly five full possessions, and finishing with the third-fastest average possession length, according to Inpredictable.

The problem was that all that pushing of the pace didn’t manifest in overall effectiveness. Washington’s defense dropped off significantly and, relative to the league average, their offensive efficiency increased by less than a point per 100 possessions. One of the problems was that the Wizards weren’t particularly good at early offense, even with a lot more opportunities. The graph below shows each team marked by the number of early shot clock (22-18 seconds) shots attempted per game, and their effective field goal percentage on those shots.

No team attempted more shots in that shot clock range than the Wizards last season, but they ranked 21st in effective field goal percentage. We see a similar pattern in the NBA’s play type statistics — Washington ranked second in frequency of transition possessions and 18th in points per possession in transition.

The new crop of bigs all come with experience in uptempo systems. Ian Mahinmi played for the Indiana Pacers last season, 10th in average possession length by Inpredictable. Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith were with the Magic who finished 11th. However, the problem was more in the backcourt than anywhere else. Of the 79 players who averaged at least 1.5 field goal attempts per game in that 22-18 second shot clock range, John Wall ranked 44th in effective field goal percentage, Ramon Sessions ranked 63rd, Bradley Beal ranked 70th, Garrett Temple ranked 71st.

Temple and Sessions are gone, but it’s doubtful that Burke or Satoransky are going to single-handedly change the trend here. For the Wizards to get more out of an up-tempo system this season, they’re going to need more effective play from Wall and Beal.

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