DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 27
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 27
Nine of today’s games are in the main tournament. There are five pitchers that cost more than $10,000, and five more that cost more than $8,000. Who is worth paying for? Let’s check out the past stats to see if we can discern that.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Dylan Bundy has never faced the Rockies. He has put together a 3-2 record with a 3.30 ERA this year. His two starts were Jekyll and Hyde. How will the rubber one be? The Rockies are still a good hitting team. I would be worried about this.
Jon Gray has never faced the Orioles either. Gray boasts four straight quality starts, and a close fifth before that in which he gave up four runs to the Blue Jays. He also has eight strikeouts in four of his last five games, which helps mitigate any damage the Orioles do. He is not a great option, but he is certainly an intriguing one.
Tyler Duffey has never faced the Braves. He has struggled with a 5.71 this year, but the Braves offense is nothing to write home about. For those of you that want to gamble, this is an interesting spot.
Archie Bradley has never faced the Brewers. He is pitching pretty well right now, giving up three runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He also has 34 strikeouts in 40 innings pitched during that span. That helps limit the damage.
Logan Verrett has never faced the Cardinals. The Cards are rolling right now. Verrett’s ERA has been steadily climbing. I’m afraid that trend will continue.
Anthony Ranaudo has never faced the Cubs, but had a 17.18 ERA in relief this year in the majors. With the series moving to Wrigley, the scoring will likely pick up as well. Don’t even think about it!
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Danny Duffy ($8,900): It would be easy to put Matt Shoemaker here instead of Danny Duffy, but the Royals are hitting .489 against Shoemaker. That is not a typo. Meanwhile, the Angels are only hitting .193 against Duffy in 57 at bats with three homers, six RBI, and nine strikeouts. Two of those home runs are by Geovany Soto, who is on the disabled list. Those numbers are not great, but they are good enough on a night when the aces all have bad histories.
Honorable Mention:
Lance McCullers ($10,100): McCullers has never faced the Yankees, but he is 5-4 with a 3.33 ERA. The 1.56 WHIP is a bit troubling, but these are not the Yankees of old. McCullers has gone six straight starts of giving up three runs or less. Don’t be surprised if he makes it seven.
Mike Foltynewicz ($8,600): Foltynewicz faced the Twins in relief once (Kennys Vargas homered off of him), but he has never started against them. Still, are you really afraid of a team that got dominated by Lucas Harrell last night? Foltynewicz has a respectable 3.79 ERA, and is fairly cheap. He could be worth a flier.
Dark Horses:
Sean Manaea ($6,600): Manaea has been brilliant in two starts against the Rangers this year. They are just 8-40(.200) with a homer, three runs, and eight strikeouts. The homer is by Shin-Soo Choo, who is back on the DL. His price is low because of the tilt against Darvish, but Manaea has given up just two runs in his last three starts. He could be a great sneaky pick tonight.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
The White Sox have had no problems scoring runs on Jason Hammel (14 in just 77 at bats). There is a stack here. Melky Cabrera ($3,500) is 5-16(.313) with a walk, a double, two homers, and five RBI against Hammel. Brett Lawrie ($2,500) is 4-14(.286) with a solo homer. Justin Morneau ($2,900) is 7-14 with four walks, five doubles, and three RBI, but may not be in the lineup since the Sox lose the DH in the trip across town. Todd Frazier ($3,700) is only 2-11, but he has a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI off of Hammel.
You can stack just about any Royals that you want against Matt Shoemaker. As a team, they are 23-47(.489) with a homer and ten RBI with only four strikeouts. The only one that has struggled is Alex Gordon (1-5). The only one that really stands out is Salvador Perez ($3,200). Perez is 6-8 with a double, the homer, and two driven in.
James Loney ($2,700) is 14-28 with a walk, four doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Adam Wainwright. Neil Walker ($2,300) is 9-32(.281) with five walks, a double, a homer, and seven RBI against Wainwright. At least Wainwright wont have to put up with Lucas Duda. Duda has a homer and six driven in against him.
Next: More Notes For 7-27
Mike Trout ($4,600) is 3-6 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Danny Duffy in his career.
David Freese ($3,900) is 5-17 with two walks, a double, two homers, and three RBI against James Paxton.
Wellington Castillo ($3,300) is 2-3 with a homer and three RBI off of Jimmy Nelson. That said, Nelson sports a 2.63 ERA in July.
Carlos Correa ($4,900) is 3-6 with two homers and four RBI against Masahiro Tanaka. Jose Altuve ($5,500) is 2-6 with a walk and a solo homer against Tanaka.
Coco Crisp ($2,800) is 7-21 with three walks, a triple, a homer, and eight RBI against Yu Darvish. Stephen Vogt ($3,400) is 4-8 with two RBI against Darvish.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!