Fantasy Golf: DraftKings PGA Championship Analysis
Fantasy Golf: DraftKings PGA Championship Analysis
Another major in the month of July? It’s time to rejoice in the bliss that is having another shot at the DraftKings Millionaire maker. Due to the upcoming Olympics, the PGA Championship has been pushed up, giving us our second major in just three weeks. This will also be the last chance to take a stab at the million dollar top prize in golf this year.
The PGA Championship will be held at Baltrosul Golf Club in Springfield, NJ. The last time the PGA Championship was held there, was back in 2005. It’s tough to give course history much weight given that it’s been over 11 years since it was last played there. I generally tend cap course history stats at around 5 years. After that, the data becomes irrelevant. In 2005 it appeared to be a course that would favor the long ball and it should play similarly this year. While only being a par 70, there are some fairly long par 3’s and par 4’s. I think driving distance will be a key metric to evaluate. There are some slight chances of showers throughout the weekend, but we wont have to worry about it nearly as much as we had to with the Open Championship.
I think it’s important to note that recency bias may need to be weighted even higher this week, due to the majors being so close together. While current form is an extremely effective predictive indicator, it’s also important to weight the factors that will constitute ownership. One example where I think this applies is Phil Mickelson. Everyone remembers the drama going into the final two days between him a Stenson at the Open. Major championships attract more casual fans and therefore provide a bias in their thought process when construction DraftKings lineups. In addition, Lefty also won this tournament back in 2005. I think it’s safe to say that Phil will be a high owned player, in a spot where I’ll be fading.
Key metrics this week:
Driving Distance – As mentioned, driving distance will be important this week and will be a big factor in my evaluation of the field. It’s important to note that just because a player may rank highly in one category you must evaluate the metric in context with other stats such as GIR, birdie stats, etc.
GIR – While driving distance and GIR can generally be conflicting stats, its one of my favorite measures for all players, but specifically for cash games players.
Birdie Stats – This is more of a game theory metric that I use to evaluate the field. DraftKings’ scoring is heavily weighted towards those that can make birdies.
Next: Top High Priced Players
Top Plays $10,000 – $11,600 :
Henrik Stenson ($10500) – Will be highly owned but his recent performance is too good to pass up.
Dustin Johnson ($11600) – Similar to Stenson, he should have high ownership but matches up perfectly with this course (driving distance) and he’s the best golfer in the world right now.
Rory Mcilroy ($11400) – Rory can drive the ball a country mile and should do well this week. He’ll still be over owned because people just love them some Rory (I think this may be the Nike effect). I’m not sure where I’ll fall with him yet, but with very weak pricing, its feasible to fit two of these elite golfers in your lineup
Top Plays $8000 – $10,000:
Sergio Garcia ($9400) – Great recent performance and driving distance.
Bubba Watson ($9000) – Arguably the best bomber on the tour and a has tremendous ability to make cuts. He fits perfectly for this course.
Branden Grace ($8000) – Grace didn’t have the best Open Championship, but I like him a bit this weekend.
Next: Top Minimum Priced Plays
Top Plays Min Price – $8000:
Rafael Cabrera-Bello ($7300) – Not known for his long ball, but he’s playing too well to ignore. I love him at this price. He should be highly owned.
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Charl Schwartzel ($7300) – Way too cheap for his recent performance and his ownership will reflect that.
Brendan Steele – ($6000) – He missed the cut last week, but he’ll be a great punt option this week.
Charley Hoffman – ($6000) – Similar to Steele, Hoffman has been on a down slide of late, but has great value for the price.
Ryan Palmer – ($7200) – Palmer crushes the ball and has a good balance of distance and GIR.
J.B Holmes – ($7700) – Owns long courses.
Other Golfer I’ll have exposure to: Sullivan, Woodland, Grillo, Kuchar
Next: Fantasy Football: Draft Strategy - QB
Notes and Fades:
- Molinari is so cheap, but sets up terribly for this course
- Koepka has great value, but the injury risk very concerning
- Fading Westwood, Matsuyama, Fowler
- I’ll be fading Spieth, but it’s important to note that in high stakes tournaments his ownership will be much lower