Miami Heat offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Miami Heat.

After a series full of missed opportunities against the Toronto Raptors, last season’s playoff exit forced the Miami Heat to confront their future. They decided to make some changes and start preparing now.

Inputs: Wayne Ellington (SG, signed for two years, $12 million); Rodney McGruder (PG, signed for three years, partially guaranteed); James Johnson (SF, signed for one year, $4 million); Derrick Williams (PF, signed for one year, $5 million); Stefan Jankovic (PF, signed for one year, non-guaranteed); Willie Reed (PF, signed for two years, $2 million); Okaro White (PF, signed for one year, non-guaranteed); Dion Waiters (SG, signed for two years, $6 million); Luke Babbitt (SF, traded from the New Orleans Pelicans)

Outputs: Dwyane Wade (SG, signed with the Chicago Bulls); Dorell Wright (SF, unsigned); Amare Stoudemire (PF, retired); Joe Johnson (SG, signed with the Utah Jazz); Luol Deng (PF, signed with the Los Angeles Lakers); Gerald Green (SF, signed with the Boston Celtics)

Retained: Hassan Whiteside (C, signed for four years, $98 million); Udonis Haslem (PF, signed for one years, $4 million); Tyler Johnson (SG, signed for four years, $50 million)

Pending:  None

The way the Dwyane Wade departure played out was a little bizarre and left the distinct impression that Pat Riley was looking for a way out and a chance to start building the next iteration of this team. Wade’s presence will be missed on and off the court but this does clear the way for the Heat to begin evolving into something new, especially with the rest of the veterans they shed this summer.

Most of the Heat’s additions were tinkering around the margins, low-risk gambles on players like Dion Waiters, Luke Babbitt, Derrick Williams, and James Johnson. None appear to be building blocks for the future but each is probably worth a look and an opportunity to blossom into something significant.

For the Heat, re-signing Hassan Whiteside was huge. Despite being 27-years old, the thought is that he still has room to grow. Given his defensive abilities and theoretical upside, he gives the Heat an anchor to try and make this rebuild a quick one rather than a lengthy process. If Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson can have strong seasons, pairing them with Whiteside and Goran Dragic might be enough to lure another big name and put the Heat right back on top.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Miami’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Heat expertise. Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) is the editor for FanSided’s All U Can Heat and a regular contributor to FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm. David Ramil (@dramil13) is a regular contributor to Hardwood Paroxysm. Wes and David also host the Locked on Heat podcast. Surya Fernandez (@SuryaHeatNBA) is the site manager for SBNation’s Hot Hot Hoops.

Wes, David, and Surya were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Miami’s offseason.

With a huge new deal, Dwyane Wade gone, and Chris Bosh’s future in question, is Hassan Whiteside the most important player on the Heat?

Wes Goldberg: I would say so. Even last year, when rumors of the Heat trading Whiteside at the deadline were swirling, the argument against trading him was that the Heat’s ceiling rises with Whiteside’s. Given that he’s the only high-priced player on the Heat yet to conceivably reach his peak (Bosh has peaked, as has likely Goran Dragic), Miami can go as far as Whiteside takes them. Pat Riley himself said Whiteside is just starting to scratch the surface of his talents. Whiteside has put up big numbers and big games, but the importance of his presence on the court will grow if he can learn to make his teammates better through passing out of double teams and being more disciplined on defense.

David Ramil: I like Whiteside’s potential to be a great player but I’m not fully a believer. Given that, I’d say that, at least for next season, the team’s most important player is Dragic. He’ll be the lynchpin that keeps the team together and he’ll be the force that legitimizes the team’s chances to keep developing. Riley’s filled the team with a mix of journeymen on short-term contracts along with young players yet to bloom. There’s the potential for things to go very badly if players look to make a name for themselves and put up bigger individual numbers that don’t translate into victories. But “The Dragon” will be the one to keep players flowing in a unified manner, at a pace that’s more comfortable to him (especially now that Wade’s gone) and he’ll be the player most likely to act as an ideological extension of the coaching staff. It’s a crucial year for him, too, as he gets to prove that he can lead a team and that he was worthy of the sacrifice that Riley made to both originally acquire him and later re-sign him. Dragic will set the tone and it’ll be up to the rest of the roster to keep up accordingly.

Surya Fernandez: Yes, he’s a unique player in the NBA and the Heat must take advantage of his skill set to maximize his talent. Goran Dragic will now have the keys to the offense and one of his primary tasks should be to get Whiteside going early and often in games as well as help him get easy buckets. His incredible wingspan will allow him to swat shots and grab rebounds, but he’ll need to be a consistent force throughout the season which means his maturity and focus — even if calls aren’t going his way or he’s in foul trouble — need to improve. We’ve seen him enjoy monster games since he’s signed with the Heat, now he needs to have a dominant season in order for the Heat to make some noise in the East.

Justise Winslow will be                        this season.

Wes Goldberg: Justise Winslow will be shooting a lot more this season. I’m not here to say whether or not that’s a good or a bad thing (he shot worse than 30 percent from the field in Las Vegas Summer League) but it’s a fact. With Wade, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson gone, Winslow is entrenched as a starter and will be asked to uncover his offense one shot at a time. He’ll also handle the ball more (my guess is that he’ll initiate offense less than Dragic, but more than Josh Richardson) as well as be used to set screens and dive to the rim in small ball pick-and-roll situations. In any event, Winslow will be put in scoring position more often, and that should be fun to watch.

David Ramil: Winslow will be defining himself this year, for better or worse. What Wes says is certainly true and, should Winslow be capable of meeting those increased expectations, then Justise will have proven himself worthy to be a centerpiece for the team moving forward. My feeling is that, despite his young age (just 20!), Winslow has to be able to prove that he’s a part of this team’s foundation moving forward or if he’ll simply be a very good complementary player. Riley’s not exactly known for his patience and, as he ages and nears retirement, he’ll want to ensure that the Heat are in position to keep winning and contend for future titles. If Winslow can be that centerpiece then Riley will build around him as he did a young Dwyane Wade. If not, I’d expect Riley to try to add whatever proven superstars he can to help usher in the next era in Miami.

Surya Fernandez: A steady contributor as a starter. The training wheels are off and without Luol Deng and Joe Johnson, the Heat need Winslow to continue his development after a promising rookie season. He doesn’t need to be a 20-point scorer, he needs to do his thing and play his game. What good is scoring 20 points if you’re allowing your man to score 25 points? Winslow will continue to improve his all-around game and always bring his defensive tenacity. I still believe his shooting will come around eventually, but even if that’s a long-term project he can still continue to attack the basket and create for others. He has a tremendous basketball IQ so I have no doubt we’ll see more improvement from the young man this season.

Of the other assorted young pieces — Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, Briante Weber, Rodney McGruder — who are you most excited about?

Wes Goldberg: While I’m excited to have Tyler Johnson back — and the idea of him growing out of puberty is certainly exciting — and while Briante Weber was my favorite player to watch in person at summer league, I’m most excited to see how Josh Richardson can grow. He was a surprise last season and after a strong second half and Wade’s departure looks like a prime candidate to get the start at shooting guard. I love Wade, and the Heat will miss him, but Richardson is a more versatile defender capable of guarding positions 1-3 and a much more consistent three-point shooter. He’s a prototype 2-guard for the modern NBA and, it’s exciting to see how good he can get as a second-round steal.

David Ramil: I like Johnson’s energy and athleticism but I think his relatively small size will be an issue and he’s already shown to be somewhat injury prone in his limited professional career. If he can show that was a fluke and keep building on his success, then I’ll be happy to admit I was wrong; I just don’t think it’s likely. Richardson has the most upside, I believe, and he’s already shown that he can leap from a second-round draft afterthought into a significant rotation player. Despite the progress he showed toward the end of the season, he’s still unquestionably raw. But I think he’s a solid combination of both tangible and intangible qualities, and is primed to be a major part of this team’s success.

Surya Fernandez: There’s no doubt it’s Richardson as he has always impressed me since Summer League last year. I’m also excited to see Tyler returning to form a nice young core with J-Rich and Winslow, but Richardson did some things last season that made Heat Nation believe the sky’s the limit for this explosive player. With Dwyane Wade gone, there will be more minutes and more opportunities for the young guys and I can’t wait to see Richardson take full advantage of that.

Starting from scratch

There have been a lot of changes to the Miami Heat’s roster this summer, not just big names leaving but players who played huge minutes for the team last season. Assuming Chris Bosh is cleared to play this season, the most-played returning lineup from last year is Tyler Johnson-Josh Richardson-Justise Winslow-Josh McRoberts-Chris Bosh. That group played a grand total of 24 minutes together last season. No other returning lineup played more than 10 minutes together last season.

The Heat’s returning players played a total of 9548 minutes last year. That’s a little less than half the minutes available to a team across a full season. Even assuming minute increases for Winslow, Richardson, Johnson, and (hopefully) Bosh, they are still likely to finish below the 60 percent mark for roster continuity (defined as percentage of minutes played by players who were on the roster the season before).

In general, teams that fall below that 60 percent roster continuity mark in for some big changes to their win totals. The graph below shows all teams in that category over the past five seasons, and their net win change from the season before.

Over this time span, on average, teams with less than 60 percent roster continuity won about 1.7 fewer games than they did the season before. However, that number is somewhat misleading because the big positive and negative swings are canceling each other out. If we take the average of the absolute values of each change (looking just at the size of the change, ignoring whether it is positive or negative) we get an average of 10.1 games.

So, assuming the Heat fall somewhere close to the norm, would you bet on them being 10 wins better or 10 wins worse this season?

Me too.