DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 28
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Late MLB Picks For July 28
Seven of today’s games are in the main tournament. There are six pitchers that cost more than $9,000. Who is worth paying for? Let’s check out the past stats to see if we can discern that.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Michael Wacha only lasted four innings against the Marlins back on July 17th. I don’t think I would trust him here either, especially with Jose Fernandez starting for the Marlins.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Johnny Cueto ($11,900): The Nationals have struggled against Cueto in his career. The current roster is hitting just .192 against him in 120 at bats with a homer, nine runs, and 26 strikeouts. Cueto’s career year keeps on rolling. He now has a 13-2 record with a 2.53 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Run him out there with confidence tonight.
Chris Sale ($11,000): Both Sale and the White Sox insist that there are no hard feelings from Sale’s colorful protest against throwback uniforms. If that is true, Sale is a great pick tonight. The Cubs are only hitting .192 against him in 52 at bats with one extra base hit (a double) and two runs to go with an impressive 24 strikeouts. His strikeouts are down this year, so don’t expect that trend to continue, but he still gets enough to leave him in the top tier.
Honorable Mention:
John Lackey ($10,100): The White Sox are hitting .232 against Lackey in 155 at bats with three homers, 16 runs, and 40 strikeouts. These are about average totals, but this has been a low scoring series so far. Maybe Lackey can improve on those numbers a little.
David Price ($9,300): The Angels are only hitting .201 against Price in 144 at bats, but they do have four homers and 11 runs. The 45 strikeouts goes a long ways towards wiping that out though. Still on the fence? Albert Pujols and Mike Trout are a combined 6-35(.171) with two homers (both by Pujols) and three RBI. Since the big boppers aren’t bopping him, Price is a safe option.
Dark Horse:
Ubaldo Jimenez ($4,700): First, let’s address the elephant in the room. Jimenez has a 7.38 ERA, which is worst in the majors among qualified pitchers (80 or more innings pitched). So why even consider him? The Twins are only hitting .242 with two homers and five RBI in 95 at bats. On top of that, Ubaldo has struck them out 32 times. This may be the only time you can consider using Ubaldo again this year. It is far from a sure thing, but the past stats favor him, especially at this price.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Adrian Beltre ($4,400) is 5-12 with two doubles and three RBI against Yordano Ventura. Ventura does get a break though. Both Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder are injured. They are a combined 8-14 with two homers and six RBI against Ventura. Instead, he gets Delino DeShields ($3,700), who is 3-6 with a walk, a double and a triple, but has no counting stats. Elvis Andrus ($3,300) may be worth a look. He is only 2-9, but he has four walks, a double, and a RBI. Nomar Mazara ($4,000) went 2-3 with a double, a homer, and three RBI against Ventura on Saturday. He may to it again!
Maikel Franco ($3,300) is 5-9 with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Matt Wisler. Cesar Hernandez ($3,800) is 3-10 with a double and a RBI. Odubel Herrera ($4,900) is only 2-9, but he has a walk, a double, and a solo homer off of Wisler. Ryan Howard ($3,100) is 3-10 with a double and two RBI. Just make sure he is in the lineup before using him. Cameron Rupp ($3,500) is 3-5 with a double, a homer, and three RBI against Wisler. Making this even more enticing is that Wisler’s ERA in nearly ten of the last two weeks!
Freddie Freeman ($3,600) is 4-11 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Aaron Nola. Nick Markakis ($3,500) is only 2-9, but both hits are homers and he has driven in three runs. If you are looking for a cheap catcher, A.J. Pierzynski ($2,500) is 4-8 with a double and a RBI against Nola.
J.J. Hardy ($3,000) is 3-7 with two walks, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Kyle Gibson. Chris Davis ($4,100) is only 2-8, but he has three walks and a solo homer. Jonathan Schoop ($4,200) is 3-7 with two doubles and a RBI against Gibson. Mark Trumbo ($4,700) is just 1-7, but that hit is a home run. Matt Wieters ($) is 2-7 with two walks, a double, and a RBI off Gibson.
Kendrys Morales ($3,100) is 3-6 with a double and a solo homer off of Cole Hamels. Cheslor Cuthbert ($3,500) was perfect against him over the weekend with a walk, a single, and a double. Alcides Escobar ($2,000) is 3-11 with two walks, a double, and a RBI from his National League days.
Melky Cabrera ($3,400) is 11-36(.306) with a walk, three doubles, a homer, and two RBI against John Lackey. Justin Morneau ($2,800) is 9-37(.243) with three walks, a double, a homer, and five RBI against Lackey. be aware that he may not have a place to play with no DH in Wrigley. Todd Frazier ($3,800) is only 3-20 against Lackey, but he has two walks, a homer, and three RBI off of him.
Next: More Notes For 7-28
Jedd Gyorko ($3,300) is only 2-8 against Jose Fernandez, but both of those hits are home runs and he has driven in six. He has been on fire lately as well. Don’t bet against him hitting another. Matt Holliday ($2,700) is only 1-5 against Fernandez, but that hit is a solo homer.
Ben Zobrist ($2,900) is 6-11 with a double and a RBI against Chris Sale if you are looking to exploit good hitters at low prices.
Aaron Hill ($3,300) is 5-17(.294) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Jered Weaver. Yes, it’s that David Ortiz ($5,600) guy again. Ortiz is 12-37(.324) with four walks, two doubles, three homers, and ten RBI against Weaver in his career.
Kole Calhoun ($3,900) is 3-9 with a walk, a homer, and two driven in against David Price. He is still too risky for me though.
Joe Mauer ($4,400) and Kurt Suzuki ($3,100) own the home runs against Ubaldo Jimenez, but they are a combined 4-22(.182) against him.
Ryan Zimmerman ($2,500) is 4-14(.286) with a walk, a homer, and two RBI against Johnny Cueto. Jayson Werth ($2,800) is 7-23(.304; the best average of any Nat against Cueto) with two walks and a RBI. Danny Espinosa ($2,400) is only 3-15, but he has a walk, a double, and three driven in against Cueto.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!