Giants: Fantasy Impact of Matt Moore Trade
The Giants added pitching depth by trading for Matt Moore. Does the change in coasts and leagues change his fantasy value?
The San Francisco Giants were in desperate need of starting pitching. With the asking price of the top names too high, the front office turned their attention elsewhere. They decided to acquire Matt Moore for a collection of talent headlined by Matt Duffy. While Moore has struggled this season, he has come on as late. Does this move make him a sell high option of someone you should buy on?
Trade Analysis
In 2011, Matt Moore was the third ranked prospect behind Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. This was once said about Matt Moore back in 2012, “He makes it look so easy, and he is so good, he’ll make David Price look like a No. 2 starter.” No, I’m not making that up, and no, things didn’t turn out that way for Moore.
For Moore, the change of scenery probably offers the biggest boost in value. He comes from probably the worst division of pitchers to one of the better divisions that resides in the National League. But let’s dive into those numbers a bit further.
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- AL East vs NL West Offensive Prowess – While the AL East features the top offensive team in the Boston Red Sox, it also features two other teams in the top 10 in offense in the league. While the Colorado Rockies are second in runs scored in the league, the NL West does not feature another offense in the top half of the league, except for Moore’s new team.
- AL East vs NL West Park Factors – Four out the five parks in the AL East are in the top 10 in Park Factors for offense. The NL West has the best two parks in the league for offensive production, but it also has the two worst in Petco Park and AT&T Park. And since Moore now gets to call the best pitching park in league home, he wins out in the change.
- The DH Factor – The benefit of being able to face pitchers in the National League (not named Bumgarner) instead of the DH is obvious. However, the AL East touts some of the better designated hitters in David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, Edwin Encarnacion, and Mark Trumbo. All four are in the top five of production amongst DH eligible players and in the top 40 overall in batters on the ESPN Player Rater. I’m sure he’ll prefer facing Scott Kazmir to Ortiz any day of the week.
So it sounds like I’m endorsing Matt Moore? Well, for the right price in the right league, of course Moore has value. But Moore is still a middle-tier to late-tier starting pitcher no matter the format.
He has a 2.69 ERA over his past nine starts but that is mostly good fortune. His strikeouts are actually down from his 7.55 K/9 to 6.86 K/9 over that time frame while his walks have stayed pretty much the same. Much of that shiny ERA can be attributed to his HR/FB rate being just 7 percent (at least 11 percent over the last three seasons), BABIP at .222, and a LOB% over 80 percent.
Basically, there is a perfect storm currently where Moore’s perceived value may be greater than his actual value. Dominate recent performance? Check. Traded to a contender? Check. Traded from a tough division? Check. Traded from the AL to the NL? Check. This really makes for a good chance to sell high for fantasy owners.
Next: Rangers Get Lucroy and Jeffress: Fantasy Impact
So what to do?
When it comes to pursuing Moore, tread lightly. Many of the points I made above are exactly what I would use to boost Moore’s value in a potential trade if you happen to be an owner. This doesn’t mean I wouldn’t buy on Moore; you can’t predict how a fly ball pitcher will fair in a move to the large spacious ballparks out west. Just make sure the price you pay matches the average value you can expect.