Philadelphia 76ers offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Philadelphia 76ers.

The Process was disrupted last season as Philadelphia 76ers GM Sam Hinkie resigned, after Jerry Colangelo was brought in as a special advisor by the team’s owners (with an apparent nudge from the NBA). So how did the new regime approach their first offseason.

Inputs: Ben Simmons (PF, NBA Draft pick No. 1); Timothe Luwawu (SG, NBA Draft pick No. 24); James Webb III (PF, signed for two years, partially guaranteed); Gerald Henderson (SG, signed for two years, $18 million); Jerryd Bayless (SG, signed for three years, $21 million); Dario Saric (PF, signed for two years, $4 million); Sergio Rodriguez (PG, signed for one year, $7 million); Brandon Paul (SG, signed for one year, partially guaranteed)

Outputs: Ish Smith (PG, signed with the Detroit Pistons); Isaiah Canaan (PG, signed with the Chicago Bulls), Elton Brand (PF, unsigned); Christian Wood (PF, signed with the Charlotte Hornets)

Retained: None

Pending:  None

The Process approves. Ben Simmons was the best player available and despite overlap with the glut of bigs already on the roster, he is now a Sixer. Simmons has a lot of work to do developing his jumper and scoring instincts but he’s a big athletic body with transcendent passing ability. He will be messy and inconsistent this season but will also fill countless highlight reels with his no-look passes and open-court moves.

The rest of the draft worked out fantastically for the Sixers. Timothe Luwawu is a raw but incredibly athletic wing, with potential to be a 3-and-D wing with a little extra shot creation abilities thrown in. They also nabbed Furkan Korkmaz, a skilled shooter and playmaker, who will stay in Europe for at least one more year before he joins the team. In free agency, the Sixers were restrained despite an enormous amount of cap room. Bayless, Henderson, and Rodriguez are all steady veterans who should help as mortar around the young guys, without demanding an excess of shots or opportunities.

On top of all that, the Sixers will also have Dario Saric and Joel Embiid, two former lottery picks, suiting up for the first time. Saric, a skilled and athletic combo forward, spent the last two years overseas. Embiid was widely regarded as an elite big man prospect but missed the past two seasons recovering from a pair of foot surgeries. All of those draft picks have finally arrived and it feels like there could be a star or two waiting to breakout on this roster.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Philadelphia’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Sixers expertise. Bret Stuter (@milroyigglesfan) is co-editor of FanSided’s The Sixer Sense. Bryan Toporek (@btoporek) is a regular contributor to Today’s Fastbreak, BBallBreakdown and FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm. Kyle Neubeck (@kyleneubeck) is a contributor to FanSided’s Upside and Motor and an editor for SBNation’s Liberty Ballers.

Bret, Bryan, and Kyle were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Philadelphia’s offseason.

After three years of Sam Hinkie, does it feel weird to be welcoming in free agent veterans like Jerryd Bayless and Gerald Henderson?

Bret Stuter: Not at all, in fact it was rather reassuring. Prior to free agency, the broadcasted intentions of moving at least one of the centers for whatever the team could get, as well as the interest in moving draft picks, concerned quite a few fans and followers. But in the context of the “2016 NBA Free Agent” with huge salaries committed to less than elite stars of the NBA, I think the Philadelphia 76ers adhered to the “Trust The Process” script fairly well. The key to the team’s rebuild comes in three stages: accumulate raw talent until you achieve a potential elite, build around that elite player until the team finds a second elite, and then use free agency to find the third leg of a championship team.

In drafting rookie Ben Simmons, as well as debuting two “red-shirt” rookies in Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, the team is convinced that one, if not two elite players are now about to take the basketball court. The challenge for this team now is slowly but inevitably migrating Simmons to a point guard position, a transition that may require up to two years. The other challenge is to assemble talent to compliment the core.

Sergio Rodriguez, the third free agent signed for one year, can cover the point guard until Simmons is comfortable enough to assume some of those duties. Both Bayless and Henderson demonstrated some skill with perimeter shooting. Those players, coupled with a very young roster with such players like Jerami Grant and Jahlil Okafor (2016 Team USA Select members), Nerlens Noel, Robert Covington, and T.J. McConnell, will give the team a rather formidable starting lineup and bench. Bayless, Henderson, and even Rodriguez are great locker room additions who can start, come in from the bench, or simply mentor younger players during practice.

Bryan Toporek: Honestly? Not really. Before he resigned (read: was forced out in a Jerry Colangelo-led coup), Hinkie told ESPN’s Zach Lowe (via CBS Philly), “I think we’ll be more aggressive this summer than we have in the past. We may end up going out and spending 10 times or 15 times more than we have in the last three years combined.”

Hinkie largely eschewed free agency the past few seasons because he was so intensely focused on acquiring a superstar-caliber player who could become the face of the franchise. That player was almost certainly coming through the draft, so signing mid-tier veterans — a la what the Orlando Magic did with Ben Gordon and Channing Frye over recent years — would only hurt the Sixers’ chances at accruing pingpong balls. With Ben Simmons now in the fold and Joel Embiid gearing up for his professional debut, the Sixers were finally able this summer to switch gears and begin building an actual NBA team around those two.

Even if Hinkie had remained in power, the Sixers still would have signed the likes of Bayless and Henderson to short-term deals. If anything, I’m most impressed with Bryan Colangelo’s restraint this offseason. His ability to improve the team’s biggest weakness (the backcourt) while preserving long-term financial flexibility gave me far more faith in his decision-making than I had heading into the offseason.

Kyle Neubeck: Definitely not. I’d be singing a different tune had some of the reported deals come to fruition — *glares at alleged Jamal Crawford offer* — but Colangelo didn’t really overpay anybody and obtained players who can still be solid contributors. This offseason was going to be the first real step forward regardless of who was leading the team.

Sitting out of free agency didn’t hold the same strategic value as it did the last few seasons when the team was still searching for their foundational pieces. With a couple young studs in place (assuming Joel Embiid can stay healthy-ish), they needed players to fill roles and maximize the effectiveness of the development program. Getting a combo guard who can shoot like Bayless and a solid defender in Henderson helps paper over some of the cracks and ease the burden on their burgeoning stars.

Ben Simmons will be                            this season.

Bret Stuter: a perfect fit, but undervalued player in Philadelphia. Most of the rookie attention will fall upon rookies who score, and secondly upon rookies who play stellar defense. There remains a void in NBA accolades to players whose presence improves the play of the overall team, and that is what Ben Simmons will bring to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Simmons is not a shoot-first player by nature, and so his first lesson in the NBA will be to take shots. Initially, that will appear rather clumsy and uninspiring. But eventually, those shots will land. Meanwhile, his ability to pass with near-perfect precision and timing will place the ball into the hands of teammates just as the shot opens up. Nerlens Noel could score a lot of points per game with Simmons feeding him the ball, and Jahlil Okafor could put up even more. Embiid might fall somewhere between the two.

But the true star on any given night will be Simmons, who could launch into a triple double at any time throughout the season. If he finds some hot shooting hands, he could lob huge volumes of assists. The trouble with either scenario, both are already expected.

With so much hype, eyes will train upon Simmons early to determine what all the fuss is about. But Brett Brown is a cool and collected coach. He won’t set Simmons up to shine so easily to avoid any risk of crashing later. He’ll work his star rookie in slowly, coaxing him to shoot, emphasizing better defense. Only when he feels he has the total basics down will he begin to feature the young man to run the team. That slow but steady pace of development will discourage many, but it will eventually lead to optimizing Simmons talents in the NBA.

Bryan Toporek: The presumptive Rookie of the Year favorite. In part, that’s due to some uninspiring competition, as Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Dragan Bender and Kris Dunn are likely to begin the year buried behind Luol Deng, Jae Crowder, Jared Dudley and Ricky Rubio, respectively. Simmons, on the other hand, should be the Sixers’ starting 4 from Day 1.

If Simmons’ summer-league play is any indication, his transition to the NBA won’t be seamless, but the Sixers will almost certainly allow him to play through his mistakes. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him have a rookie campaign similar to Michael Carter-Williams’ 2013-14 season — around 16 points, six rebounds and six assists per game with dismal shooting percentages — since the Sixers are going to put the ball in his hands a lot.

Kyle Neubeck: “Erratic” is the first word that comes to mind. That’s not so much a dig at Simmons as it is an understanding of where his game is at right now; for every Magic Johnson-esque whip pass through traffic, there will be a hesitation to shoot or a missed jumper. He is comfortably the best prospect in his class but one whose road to success will demand major improvements.

The uncertainty of the Sixers rotation will play into this as well. Simmons has an advanced understanding of the game and will prove he is capable of catering to the strengths of different types of players. That doesn’t change serious rotational issues Brett Brown needs to work out if at least one of the big men doesn’t get moved before opening night.

I’d be semi-shocked if Simmons doesn’t end up winning Rookie of the Year given his propensity to put up eye-catching lines. Still, Sixers fans shouldn’t expect instant stardom from their No. 1 pick, though I don’t think patience is an issue for the Trust The Process crowd.

Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor. Can the Sixers work with all three on the roster? Can they work with two of the three?

Bret Stuter: All three players were on the roster in the 2015-2016 season. During the year, Jahlil Okafor played 53 games, Nerlens Noel played in 67 games, and Joel Embiid played in 0 games. The concern this season is that Embiid would need to play in 82 games, which mean both Okafor and Noel would come off the bench.

But that original presumption has no chance of occurring. The best estimate today suggests that Joel Embiid will be eased in slowly this year — both on a limiting minutes restriction and in alternating games played. So that means that of the 48 minutes per game in 82 games, if Joel Embiid gets 20 mins of game play (average) of 41 games, 3,136 minutes per game remain to be played. Both Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor could average 19 minutes per game for 82 games in that scenario. Since its a long season, I’d say Brown plays Okafor and Noel each for 67 games this season. That places each player in the 23.25 minutes per game region. Not ideal, but certainly in the range of doable. The 2017 Trade deadline may give the team a better opportunity to move one of their centers, and a greater understanding of which of the three is best suited to play elsewhere.

Keep in mind that Nerlens Noel is on his last year of his rookie contract, and Embiid is only two years away from signing on for much more. The team will want to be very clear and certain who they want to commit to going forward. Right now, that certainty doesn’t exist.

Another option could be to try Embiid out at the power forward role, and that idea has some logic behind it as Brown is very familiar with the David Robinson/Tim Duncan pairing in San Antonio. The team will have some things to sort out, but it will be a controlled experiment this year, and not the chaos that plagued the team early last season.

Ideally, all three centers will prove worthy of starting for an NBA team, and that will give the Philadelphia 76ers a wonderful problem to resolve. But so far, Brown has coached each player to show up selfless and willing to contribute however best they can. When the wins begin to show up, that willingness to humble oneself for the team may evaporate. But for now, this is a tight bunch who will play whatever role they are asked to fill.

Bryan Toporek: They could work with all three for now, but it’s certainly not ideal. They’re likely to limit Embiid’s playing time early in the year to ease him into the nightly grind of an NBA season, so there could be an adequate number of minutes for all three at first. However, if Okafor and/or Noel aren’t on board with a super-sub role — a la Enes Kanter in OKC or Bismack Biyombo in Toronto — that theory goes straight out the window.

In a perfect world where injuries don’t exist, Embiid would be the Sixers’ center of the future, which means one of Okafor or Noel must eventually go. Considering how each of them would fit alongside Simmons and Embiid, Noel is the logical keeper of the two. You want a low-usage, shot-blocking rim-roller next to Simmons — someone who can make up for his defensive deficiencies and not clog up the paint on offense. You don’t want a plodding, post-centric pick-and-roll liability, as that would exacerbate Simmons’ limitations on both ends of the court. Thus, the choice between Noel and Okafor is clear in that regard.

Neither player fits seamlessly next to Embiid, as each struggled when moved to the 4 last season, but Noel wasn’t a complete disaster at that spot. Okafor only spent a few games at the 4 before suffering a season-ending knee injury, but that small sample size confirmed head coach Brett Brown’s theory that the Duke product isn’t cut out to play that position. Since the Sixers should have zero interest in making Embiid guard stretch 4s, thus putting more strain on his twice-surgically repaired foot, Noel is the obvious choice between the two here, too.

The question then becomes: What can Bryan Colangelo get for Okafor (not much, it seems), and how much is he willing to spend on Noel, who is currently eligible for an extension? Even with the salary cap drastically rising, it may not be wise to spend $20-plus million annually on a player who’s likely to come off the bench if Embiid remains healthy. Given the elephant-sized “if” when it comes to Embiid’s health, though, keeping Noel around as an insurance policy makes plenty of sense, no matter the cost.

Kyle Neubeck: Keeping all three bigs is almost completely untenable from where I sit. It was bad enough trying to juggle Okafor and Noel last season, but the presumed return of their best center prospect (Embiid) and the arrival of two players who will predominantly guard fours (Simmons, Dario Saric) further complicates things.

Part of the issue is the caliber of the players, which sounds nonsensical for a team coming off a 10-win season. Having several top-10 picks at the same position fighting for minutes and future earnings is not ideal from a roster-composition or team chemistry standpoint. Noel is quickly approaching his second contract, and all of these players are used to being the focal point of their teams. Perhaps you can sell them all on being part of something special down the road, though even that is a pipe dream given their glaring fit issues on-court.

Assuming best-case scenarios for everyone, your top prospects are Embiid and Simmons, a duo that fits together like a glove. In fact, the only player who doesn’t really fit in this equation is Okafor, who doesn’t cover for many of Simmons’ deficiencies nor does he best amplify his strengths.

For all he inherited, Colangelo does not have an easy way out of this conundrum. But that’s why he’s getting paid the big bucks — he has to alleviate the logjam in Philadelphia sooner rather than later.

Too many centers

Although they haven’t reached a resolution yet, the biggest question the Philadelphia 76ers face coming out of this offseason is what to do with the sudden logjam in their frontcourt. Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor struggled to mesh last season and to that pairing will be added Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric. A surplus of talent is a good problem to have but that doesn’t make finding a solution any easier.

In discussing who to keep and who to trade, it seems like the focus usually tilts towards which combinations seem to work the best on paper, or which combinations preserve the most talent. One other factor which is worth considering is what kind of team the Philadelphia 76ers would like to be, and which players allow them to play that style.

At the end of the 2014-15 season, I looked at the stylistic characteristics of the 76ers offense and noted that, although they were abjectly ineffective, they were stylistically similar to the systems of the San Antonio Spurs, Atlanta Hawks, and Golden State Warriors. It seemed that the 76ers were building an identity and structure to place their hypothetical future talent into — uptempo, spreading the floor, lots of movement of players and the ball.

Last season, the offense contracted somewhat with a less efficient shot selection and a slower pace of play. Okafor was one of the major factors. No other player slowed his average pace down last season more than Okafor.

This is a function of both his athletic limitations and his preferred offensive style. Most Philly fans seem to be of the mind that Okafor should be the first piece that should be moved, and this would be just one more piece of evidence for that argument. But that assumes that the style of play the 76ers pursued two years ago is where they want to go. If the team decides that a more constrained offense, focused on half-court efficiency and simplifying things on defense, gives them the best chance to win, then Okafor may not be so out of place.

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