Who else will be on the move before the MLB Trade deadline in 12 hours? Let’s take a look!
As we saw last year, the hours before the non-waiver trade deadline were crazy. Expect nothing less this year especially since the Mets and Royals, two of the biggest movers at the deadline, made it to the World Series. Which player on the move could have that kind of impact this year?
There are rumors flying every which way. We will take a look at the likelihood of each player being traded on a scale of 1-5, with five being the most likely to be traded. We will even explore some options that haven’t been mentioned much yet. Why? Because some of these make too much sense not to happen!
First, let’s identify the buyers. Baltimore, Cleveland, Texas, Washington, San Francisco, and the Cubs are all division leaders, and are identified as buyers. The Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, Pirates, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, and Astros are all four games or less out of the last wild card slot. The Rockies are five back of a wild card, but are mostly in limbo right now. Don’t expect them to buy.
Next: Which Hitters are on the move?
There isn’t a lot of talk about hitters being moved, but there are some teams that could use a bat. Who is out there?
Carlos Beltran, Yankees (3): Beltran is having a nice year with a .301 average, 21 homers, and 62 RBI so far. The Yankees insisted they weren’t selling, and all of the moves that they have made so far have not crippled their playoff chances. This will be the telling tale of whether they are buyers or sellers. If they move Beltran early, it could start a domino effect. I still see this as about a 50/50 chance of Beltran getting moved. The Yankees aren’t asking a whole lot, but there are better options available, and they are still trying to gauge just how mad fans would be with them turning into full sellers. Likely landing spot: Astros. Carlos Gomez has been underwhelming, and Preston Tucker isn’t ready.
Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers (5): The damage is already done. Lucroy will be moved, but this puts the Brewers in a bit of a bind. Cleveland put together a great package for Milwaukee, but Lucroy could veto the trade to Cleveland an he did. Now the Brewers will likely have to settle for a lesser package, but they should still get a nice haul. Maybe not Aroldis Chapman nice, but nice none the less. Likely landing spot: Texas
Ryan Braun, Brewers (2): The Brewers have also been fielding offers for Braun, but they have been so occupied by the Lucroy situation that the Braun thing has died down. Honestly, there wasn’t a whole lot of interest anyway. However, if talks fall through for Bruce or Beltran, Braun will be on the radar once again. Likely landing spot: Dodgers
Jay Bruce, Reds (4): Bruce has figured out how to hit left handed pitching finally, and it has made him a pretty hot commodity lately. The Reds are ready to get the future started with Jose Peraza and Adam Duvall. If someone gives them an upper tier pitcher, Bruce is gone. My guess is that happens, but don’t expect it to be Julio Urias. Yadier Alvarez would probably be as high as they go for Bruce. Could that torpedo the deal? Likely landing spot: Dodgers
Ryan Howard, Phillies (1): Howard has already ceded most of his playing time to Tommy Joseph as the Phillies are clearly in rebuilding mode. Howard is one of the few trade chips they have, but his .168 average is doing them no favors. The Phillies would move Howard if there were any interest, but James Loney has filled in nicely for the Mets. Ditto for John Jaso of the Pirates. Some A.L. team may be interested in him as a DH though. Likely landing spot: Orioles
Matt Kemp, Braves (3): The Braves will have the same problems moving Kemp as the Padres did, but the Padres did Atlanta a huge favor by picking up about a third of his remaining salary. Kemp’s defense is nearly non-existent because of his bad hips. He would fit much better as a DH. If the Braves foot some more of the bill, they could turn Kemp into a decent prospect. Likely landing spot: Astros
Melky Cabrera, White Sox (2): The 31 year old Cabrera is hitting over .300 yet again, and there is a market for him should the Sox decide to sell. They likely wont unless they move a much larger piece first. The Rangers don’t trust Shin-Soo Choo anymore. Cabrera could be a great fit. Likely landing spot: Texas
Josh Reddick, A’s (3): Reddick has his average above .300, and still has solid power. They A’s are in no hurry to move Reddick if they don’t get a decent offer, but who doesn’t need left handed power? The price would likely have to come down a little. If it does, Reddick will be on the move. Likely landing spot: Cleveland
Alex Gordon, Royals (1): Gordon’s .207 average likely means he is staying put. He is well above average defensively, and could fit in nicely somewhere, but I also don’t believe the Royals think they are out of this just yet. If they have a poor August, Gordon could be waived, but I think it is more likely they try to add a pitcher than move Gordon. Likely landing spot: Royals
Brandon Phillips, Reds (2): The recent surge of Phillips has teams taking notice once again, and if Cincinnati gets anything decent, they will move him. The more pressing question is: What contender needs a second baseman? Well….there is one. If they think they are contenders, that is. LIkely landing spot: Royals
Next: Which Pitchers Could Move?
It’s the usual suspects that need pitching, and after blowing the deadline last year, the Dodgers will add someone. The only question is who.
Chris Sale, White Sox (1): I get the impression that the Sox don’t really want to move Sale, but they realize that this is a seller’s market, and they could rebuild their whole system by moving Sale. Heck, the Rangers could turn them into an instant contender! Their asking price is really high, and because of that I think everyone chickens out. The Dodgers may move Urias, but they would likely have to give up far too much with him. To me, Texas is the only one that clearly has enough, and that will likely change if they land Lucroy. Likely landing spot: Rangers or White Sox
Ervin Santana, Twins (3): Santana’s ERA is 1.97 since June 14. This is the most dominant stretch of his career, and really, the Twins have no reason to hang on to the 32 year old Santana. Once the big names fall through because of the asking price, expect someone to come sniffing around Santana. And the Terry Ryan-less Twins will be all ears. Likely landing spot: Rangers
Chris Archer, Rays (2): Like the White Sox, the Rays are in no rush to move Archer, but teams will overpay right now. One team in particular matches up well with the Rays, and if they don’t pony up for Archer, expect Matt Moore to be the consolation prize. I put Moore’s chances of being moved at a 4 right now. Unless the Dodgers offer Urias. Likely landing spot: Dodgers
Jake Odorizzi, Rays (4): Odorizzi’s numbers are a bit down, but there are several teams that are rolling with worse than him right now. I expect Odorizzi to be moved. No one will give up an elite prospect for him, but I expect the Rays to jump at the first team that offers two of their top 25. Likely landing spot: Orioles. Wade Miley isn’t enough, and I think they know it.
Shelby Miller, Diamondbacks (1): I would even put this at a zero. Everyone remembers what the Snakes paid for Miller, right? They have no choice but to hope he turns it around or to trade for a similar package. That wont come close to happening. Miller isn’t going anywhere because of what Arizona paid for him. Likely landing spot: Arizona.
Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies (4): Hellickson is a solid pitcher, and the price is low enough that teams are really going to start sniffing around Hellickson around 3 pm eastern. I doubt anyone pays up for Sale or Archer, so the middle tier is going to cause a frenzy in the last hour. This is great news for the Phillies. Likely landing spot: Orioles. I think someone outbids them for Odorizzi (the Dodgers, perhaps?). Hellickson is plan B. They know they wont go deep into the playoffs riding Yovani Gallardo and Wade Miley.
Rich Hill, A’s (2): The blister issue is scaring teams off, and rightfully so. Oakland has no problem keeping him, so I doubt he moves. The A’s want to trade him at his current value. That’s just not going to happen with a recurring blister issue. Likely landing spot: Red Sox
Jose Quintana, White Sox (3): Expect talks to escalate for Quintana after no one pays up for Sale. There are two teams that could start a bidding war here, but Texas needs him more, and they have a deeper system. Just how many prospects will they move though? It will depend on what they give up for Lucroy. Likely landing spot: Texas
James Shields, White Sox (2): Shields has been much better lately, and if the Sox sell Sale and/or Quintana, they would be foolish not to move Shields. This could be an epic flip job, because they only gave up Erik Johnson to get him a month ago. Likely landing spot: Dodgers
Alex Colome, Rays (3): Most of the relievers are gone, so if someone decides they need bullpen help, there is little out there besides Colome. He is a suitable plan B for someone, and he will come cheap enough to get someone to take the plunge. Likely landing spot: Red Sox