Jameis Winston is a stud. Is the rest of team ready to take off with him?
That’s the question facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2016, a team that could either be highly disappointing or a revelation.
With Winston at the helm, the Buccaneers are going to be a good offensive team for the next decade. Tampa Bay has one of the best young quarterbacks the game has seen in years, in the same breath as Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers.
Winston, who has the same size and attitude of Roethlisberger, looks the part of a perennial Pro Bowler. Last year, the former Heisman Trophy winner and national champion at Florida State threw for 4,042 yards and 22 touchdowns, earning a trip to Honolulu. While Winston did chuck 15 interceptions and completed just 58.3 percent of his throws as well, the talent is undeniable.
As Winston has the game slow down for him, he will be a nightmare to deal with. Factor in the talent around him – Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans – and the Buccaneers are set up to be lethal. In a division with an aging roster (New Orleans) a bad roster (Atlanta) and a dominant roster (Carolina), Tampa Bay could be ascending shortly.
Yet, the Buccaneers are held back by a defense and front office that seem stuck in quicksand.
Outside of defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and inside linebacker Lavonte David, the defense doesn’t have playmakers. Defensive end Jacquies Smith showed flashes in his second season, racking up seven sacks, only bested on the team by McCoy’s 8.5.
The additions of corner Brent Grimes and outside linebacker Daryl Smith are both solid, although neither will be here for the long haul. Grimes in 33 years old while Smith is 34, meaning both are role models for first-round pick Vernon Hargreaves III and Kwon Alexander, respectively.
As for the front office faux pas, the decision to fire Lovie Smith off a five-win improvement (going 2-14 to 7-9) was stunning. Replacing him with Dirk Koetter, a fine offensive coordinator, was the biggest possible risk.
While Tampa Bay keeps a sense of continuity with Koetter, this group needs a defensive mind running the show. The Buccaneers are going to have an explosive offense regardless of who is head coach thanks to their plethora of weapons. The defense is where schemes need to hide weaknesses, and that’s something Koetter can’t do.
The hiring of former Atlanta Falcons head coach, Mike Smith, was a smart move. Smith becomes the defensive coordinator and has proven his worth, but the point remains. Why fire Lovie Smith when Koetter had the offense gelling? The move made little sense.
Tampa Bay has a chance for a long run of dominance. This year could be the foundation for years to come, should Koetter prove to be the right choice.
For Buccaneers fans, who have waiting seemingly forever for a quarterback, he better be.
Film Study
Nobody has gotten more hype this offseason than Brock Osweiler.
Osweiler, who signed a four-year, $72 million deal in free agency with the Houston Texans, is being looked upon as the great hope of a franchise yet to see a conference championship game.
In the third year under Bill O’Brien’s watch, the Texans are hoping to do better than their two previous 9-7 marks. Both seasons have seen underwhelming play at quarterback.
So who is Osweiler? Well, let’s take a quick look at one good play, and one bad play, that is indicative of his play.
Week 14: Oakland at Denver
Sometimes, film study is simplistic. Here we have a 1st and GOAL at the Oakladn 2-yard-line with the Broncos leading 9-0. With only 17 seconds remaining in the first half, head coach Gary Kubiak elects to throw.
Denver has a jumbo set in, with a pair of extra offensive linemen and two tight ends. Virgil Green is lined up in-line on the left side (No. 85, arrowed) and is the primary target. Denver wants to sell the play-action and then loft a touchdown to Green.
The play goes exactly to plan. The handoff is faked to Juwan Thompson and Green got a clean release into the back of the end zone.
Osweiler has all kinds of time, with the closest Oakland pass-rusher not within 20 feet of him. All Osweiler has to do is put a little touch on the ball and throw it toward the back of the end zone, maybe seven yards deep and into the corner.
Instead, Osweiler completely airmails the throw. It isn’t because of pressure or a defender flashing into the zone. Instead, it is because Osweiler’s technique is awful. Instead of stepping into the throw, Osweiler steps to the side and opens his hips far too soon. The result is his arm angle being thrown off, and the ball sailing high and away.
Here is a better look at his feet, from the end zone camera:
This type of mistake was made repeatedly by Osweiler. Some would chalk it up to rust and inexperience. Others would say it is indicative of bad mechanics and tentativeness in the pocket.
Week 16: Cincinnati at Denver
It’s 3rd and 3 from the Cincinnati 8-yard line, and Osweiler is getting very straight-forward coverage. The Bengals are in off-man coverage across the board, with a deep safety who will cover the tight end, and six rushers.
Osweiler has Emmanuel Sanders stacked behind Demaryius Thomas on the left side, which is the area to watch.
When the play starts, Osweiler immediately reads the stack side. Thomas starts to run like he’s going on a fade pattern, while Sanders runs straight upfield, holding his man in indecision. Meanwhile, the rush is coming. Osweiler knows he has to get rid of the ball, facing a 6v5 situation.
With blitzer Reggie Nelson coming clean, Osweiler throws off his back foot but hits Sanders in stride inside the 5-yard line. This is a good example of why Osweiler is intriguing. Despite the rush, Osweiler was aware enough to know his progression and keep his wits about him. It seems simple and for many top-tier quarterbacks it is, but not many quarterbacks in their sixth start make this throw.
The result is an 8-yard touchdown, in a game Denver eventually would win in overtime. Without this victory, the Broncos would have been the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs.
In summation, Osweiler has talent. He can move around in the pocket reasonably well and shows the ability to understand coverages. After watching from the sideline for the better part of four seasons, it is clear Osweiler was studying.
On the other side, Osweiler struggles with accuracy and timing. He waits too long to hit the open receiver and when he does identify his man, the throws are high too often. Both of these things can be improved upon, but it could take time and patience in Houston.
Power rankings
Top 11 rivalries of all-time
1. Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
2. Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
3. Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
5. New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
6. San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
7. New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
8. Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
9. New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
10. Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
11. Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
Quotable
"“You have to take care of your guys,” Brown said after Sunday’s practice. “If a guy underperforms, you get rid of him. If a guy overperforms, you take care of him.”– Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown on his contract status"
Brown has been the best receiver in football over the past two seasons, posting 1,698 and 1,834 yards in each of the campaigns, respectively. At 28 years old, Brown is at the peak of his powers. Despite all that, Brown has reported to training camp and doesn’t have any intention of holding out now or in the future.
It’s a risky play for Brown, who could see his value plummet with an injury. The All-Pro has $12.3 and $13.1 million due in 2016 and 2017, which might explain why Brown is content to play on his current pact. Still, if Brown held out and demanded an extension, Pittsburgh would be hard-pressed not to oblige.
Random stat
Since the divisions were realigned in 2002, the only teams without a division title are the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns.
Info learned this week
1. Colts plan on playing everyone in HOF game
The Indianapolis Colts are going to be playing all their starters in the Hall of Fame Game against the Green Bay Packers this Sunday, per head coach Chuck Pagano. Indianapolis will even include quarterback Andrew Luck, who missed the last eight games of the 2015 season with a lacerated kidney.
Most teams rest ample starters in this contest since the participants each have five preseason games, but the Colts are bucking that trend. On one hand, it’s nice to see teams taking competition as a challenge and not an obstacle. On the other hand, Pagano will be vilified if somebody important gets hurt.
If Luck were to go down, the Colts would be looking up – not down – at the Tennessee Titans in the standings come December.
2. Chargers bitten by injury bug early
After a 4-12 season that saw one injury after the next, the San Diego Chargers have already sustained a blow to their offense. On Sunday, receiver Stevie Johnson tore his meniscus and had to be hlped off the field, per NFL.com.
It remains unclear whether Johnson will be out 1-2 months or the entire season, with the upcoming surgery determining the timeline. Regardless, it’s a tough loss for a team with the deck already stacked against it in the tough AFC West.
3. Cam Newton needing to step up?
Seattle Seahawks defensive end Michael Bennett called out Carolina Panthers quarterback and NFL MVP Cam Newton over the weekend, stating that he needs to become a voice on social issues in America. Bennett since clarified his comments, but the notion stands.
There is undeniable racial tension in America. Newton, a black athlete in this charged climate, has a major platform and because of his considerable acclaim would be an ideal spokesperson for change in the athletic world. Maybe Bennett should not have called out an individual for such a challenging task, but Newton should consider the message.
4. Belichick loves his receivers
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick throws compliments around like manhole covers, but he had plenty of good things to say about his team’s receivers. New England is starting Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Chris Hogan, but everything after that is up for grabs.
While Edelman is a terrific receiver, it is tough to see the love for the rest of this group. Amendola is always an injury risk and Hogan was poached from the Buffalo Bills, where he couldn’t unseat Robert Woods. Perhaps with Tom Brady, the Patriots will make them look like Jerry Rice.
5. Broncos defense even better?
In Andy Benoit’s piece on the Broncos over at The MMQB, safety T.J. Ward states his belief that Denver can become the greatest defense of all-time. Last year, the Broncos were able to win the Super Bowl solely because of the defense, with the offense being one of the worst units in the NFL.
Can they be even better without Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan, who were both lost to free agency? It’s tough to see. Jackson is an elite run-stuffer and Trevathan is one of the better all-around linebackers in the game. Without them, the Broncos might take a minor step back. That said, the defense is easily elite and could propel Denver to the postseason for the sixth straight year.
Asylum mailbag
This is a new feature that will become a weekly staple from now on. We have a great group of fans at FanSided known nationally as the Sports Asylum, and each week, I will answer a few questions from the group. Want to get involved? Email me at matt.verderame@fansided.com and I’ll give you the details.
Onto a few questions:
I was at the Bengals/Steelers game last winter. I saw the grievous sins made by both teams that led to the disappointing ending for my Bengals. Is there anything being done to keep coaches off the field this year? – Wombat
There is a new rule that the NFL put into place keeping assistant coaches off the field. Should anybody violate, the officials can eject a coach or, at the minimum, assess a penalty.
Without question, this rule is a direct result to the debacle that broke out in Cincinnati during the AFC Wild Card game last year, when Pittsburgh’s Joey Porter came onto the field while Antonio Brown was hurt. Porter’s trip onto the field ended up in a 15-yard penalty to Adam Jones, which all but decided the outcome.
Will the rule make a huge difference? I believe so. Any assistant coach who draws a personal foul is going to be hearing it, big time.
What are the chances that my Jets can overtake the Patriots in the AFC East with Tom Brady suspended for the first four games? – Lord Harry
If I had to lay money, I’m still rolling with New England. The Patriots have won the division every year of Tom Brady’s starting tenure except for 2002 and 2008, when Brady missed the entire season with a torn ACL. While Brady will be out for the first quarter of the season, he will be back for the final 12 games.
That said, the Jets are the team to watch in that division should New England stumble. If they can get through their first six games at 3-3 or better, it will be a race to the finish. However, New York faces the Seahawks, Chiefs, Steelers and Bills on the road with the Bengals and Seahawks at home over that stretch. Yikes.
The Jets need Ryan Fitzpatrick to be at his best once more and have the pass rush step up to catch the Patriots.
History lesson of the week
Dan Marino played his last game in the 1999 AFC Divisional playoffs. His Miami Dolphins were thrashed by the Jacksonville Jaguars, 62-7. It remains the largest margin of defeat in a playoff game since the 1940 NFL Championship game, when the Chicago Bears defeated the Washington Redskins, 73-0.
Parting shot
The best battle this season will be between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West crown. The two teams are both legitimate contenders for a Super Bowl and with home-field being so important to both, whoever wins the division has a massive advantage.
For Seattle, it’s borderline inconceivable that anybody would knock them off at home in the postseason. It hasn’t happened in the Pete Carroll era. Meanwhile, Arizona is built to play on the fast track of its indoor stadium. Going into the elements is not conducive to the fast-paced offense head coach Bruce Arians likes to run.
Both teams are likely to win 10+ games. The race could be decided in Week 16, when the Seahawks host the Cardinals on Christmas Eve.