After winning the Championship and gaining promotion to the Premier League for the second time in three years, can Burnley stay up in 2016-17?
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INS: Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£2.5 million, Charlton) and Nick Pope (£1.1 million, Charlton)
OUTS: Joey Barton (free, Glasgow Rangers), Matt Gilks (free, Glasgow Rangers), Matthew Taylor (free, Northampton Town)
THE STORY: Burnley rose back to the Premier League at the first attempt in 2015-16, after getting relegated a season earlier. The money they received from that season in the Premier League helped them bounce back quickly. Last summer, the team broke their transfer record by signing Andre Gray from Brentford for £10 million, though they did lose striker Danny Ings to Liverpool and right back Kevin Trippier to Tottenham, and will once again have one of the smallest budgets in the top flight.
The Clarets struggled out of the gate last season, but won four straight from August 22 – September 15. Even more remarkable, they went undefeated from the beginning of 2016 to the end of the season. It was a very impressive year for Burnley, as they won their first second division title since 1972-73.
Leading the way was striker Gray, who led the Championship with 25 goals in 41 appearances for the club. Behind him was Wales international Sam Vokes, with 15.
Besides the two main strikers, Burnley’s defense deserves a lot of credit. Led by a Manchester United product, Michael Keane, and a former Manchester City youth player, Ben Mee, they allowed the second fewest goals in the league. The two formed a strong relationship in central defense and were a big reason their side lost only five games last season.
Out of all 20 teams competing in the English top flight, only Bournemouth have played fewer seasons in the Premier League than Burnley’s two. In 2014-15, the Clarets finished 19th, and were 18th in 2009-10. The jump from Championship to Premier League is always difficult, and Burnley’s relative lack of activity in the transfer market should be cause for concern.
Last season, Burnley made some good signings — Gray in particular — but they relied mostly on the longer term members of their squad. Which is good, but history suggests a few Premier League-ready signings go a long way in a relegation scrap. So far this summer, the Clarets have made only two signings to add depth to their lineup, a lineup that is most notably lacking in central midfield after the departure of Joey Barton (one of the few members of last season’s squad with extensive top flight experience). The club has agreed to a loan move for Liverpool defender Jon Flanagan, but will need more than that to avoid relegation.
This season will not be easy for Burnley, but their manager, Sean Dyche, has reasons to be hopeful. He can rely on Gray to be a key player for them. Their keeper, Tom Heaton, earned a trip to the Euro’s this past summer with his impressive form last season. The Keane and Mee duo should be strong again, and Burnley’s toughness and recent Premier League experience should help them in the fight for survival.
It wont be easy, but don’t be surprised if Burnley finish just above the relegation zone and get to see another season in the top flight.
KEY PLAYER: Andre Gray was seen as a very expensive purchase for a Championship team at £10 million, but has proved that he can be a Jamie Vardy-like player for Burnley. His 25 goals in 43 games led the way in the second division and his ability to be a big presence in the box is key for his team. If Gray continues to produce in his first season in the Premier League, Burnley have a chance. The difference between relegation and survival is so often a consistent goal scorer. Gray has shown in the Championship that he knows how to score. The question is whether he can adjust to life in the top flight as quickly as Burnley will need him to.
MANAGER: Dyche was linked to the vacant England coaching job this summer, as he has helped Burnley secure promotion twice in his three years in charge of the Clarets. However, he decided to stay on and will try to make sure his team stays up for good this time.
Dyche has said that he cannot spend a lot of money on players, as big clubs who do often pay too much for a player that doesn’t produce. Dyche’s lack of spending could well come back to haunt him, but if he continues to get results when it counts, few will care about the lack of star quality in his squad. He has formed a strong bond with his players, he has recent experience of a Premier League relegation battle and with him leading the way, Burnley have a chance of staying up.
BEST CASE: Gray and Vokes impress again for the Clarets, and they just about avoid relegation.
WORST CASE: Burnley’s lack of depth and proven Premier League experience is too big of an obstacle, and they are relegated for the third time in eight years.
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