Los Angeles Clippers offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Los Angeles Clippers.

A slew of injuries derailed what could have been a special season for the Los Angeles Clippers and were a major factor in their first round exit at the hands of the Portland Trail Blazers. Their core is still powerful, when healthy, and the offseason, as usual, is about building up the second unit.

Inputs: Brice Johnson (PF, NBA Draft pick No. 25); David Michineau (PG, NBA Draft pick No. 39); Diamond Stone (C, NBA Draft pick No. 40); Brandon Bass (PF, signed for one year, $1.5 million); Raymond Felton (PG, signed for one year, $1.5 million); Alan Anderson (SG, signed for one year, $1.5 million)

Outputs: Cole Aldrich (C, signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves); Jeff Ayres (PF, unsigned); Jeff Green (PF, signed with the Orlando Magic); Pablo Prigioni (PG, signed with the Houston Rockets); C.J. Wilcox (SG, traded to the Orlando Magic); Branden Dawson (SF, unsigned);

Retained: Austin Rivers (SG, signed for three years, $35 million); Wesley Johnson (SF, signed for three years, $18 million); Jamal Crawford (SG, signed for three years, $42 million); Luc Richard Mbah A Moute (SF, signed for two years, $4.5 million); Marreese Speights (PF, signed for two years, $2 million)

Pending: None

The Clippers mostly opted to get the band back together on their bench, re-signing Austin Rivers, Wesley Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute (although either Johnson or Mbah A Moute will likely start at small forward). While those players all have experience in Doc Rivers system, none played particularly well last season (except Mbah A Moute defensively). All are known quantities at this point, so the idea of internal improvement seems a little far-fetched.

To that group, the Clippers added several inexpensive veterans. Ray Felton was passable for the Mavericks last season but is still fairly limited. Alan Anderson can shoot. Brandon Bass can bang bodies. Marreese Speights can space the floor a little. None offers anything approaching average two-way production so the second-unit looks like it will again be a constant process of trying to plug leaks.

Los Angeles did add some interesting pieces in the draft. Brice Johnson is an athletic big who can run the floor, work the glass, and step out to hit a mid-range jumper. The concern with him is that he’s an older rookie and his upside may be limited. David Michineau looked like a bit of reach but the Clippers were reportedly attracted by his speed. Diamond Stone was a very efficient big who rated well in draft models, but may not have the size or athleticism to succeed as a center in the NBA.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Los Angeles’ offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Clipper expertise. Law Murray (@LawMurrayTheNU) is an editor for the TrueHoop Network’s Clipper Blog. Kaveh Jam (@KavehsRoom) is a regular contributor to FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm and Clipperblog. Tom West (@TomWestNBA) is a regular contributor to FanSided and the editor for FanSided’s Clipperholics.

Law, Kaveh, and Tom were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Los Angeles’ offseason.

With the rookies and the additions of Brandon Bass and Raymond Felton, will the Clippers second unit be more reliable this season?

Law Murray: In a word, no. The perimeter players that figure to be in the rotation haven’t changed at all between 2015-2016 6th Man of the Year SG Jamal Crawford, PG Austin Rivers, and SF Wesley Johnson. While that was a priority for the Clippers, it is questionable to expect great improvement from them. Crawford will be 37 by the end of the next regular season, Rivers would have to show a consistent level of production while making his team better simultaneously, and Johnson would need his confidence to stay lifted. Now, only one of Brandon Bass and Marreese Speights can expect to see rotation minutes, and I would expect it to be Bass due to his familiarity with head coach Doc Rivers.

But either way you look at it, the Clippers are going to hope that they don’t need the bench as much this year. Yes, the Clippers scored the fourth-most bench points in the league, but only the Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans played their bench more minutes than the Clippers in 2015-2016. A player like PG Raymond Felton is only going to play a lot if Rivers or PG Chris Paul get hurt; he’s replacing PG Pablo Prigioni on the roster. The rookies are only going to play if PF Blake Griffin or C DeAndre Jordan go down.

The 2015-2016 Clippers bench was poor offensively (21st in offensive efficiency), but solid defensively (10th in defensive efficiency). Doc Rivers is hoping that not having as many new faces as the year before helps retain some continuity. The new players don’t really move the needle significantly for me, and perhaps that’s by design.

Kaveh Jam: For all the knocks against the Clippers bench over the past several years, they were an effective group at several critical points during the playoffs last year. Their starters are still formidable enough to carry them through games at a time. But during Game 2 of their first-round matchup with the surprising Portland Trail Blazers, it was the reserve combination of Jamal Crawford, Jeff Green, Austin Rivers, and Cole Aldrich that outscored the Portland bench 38-10 to push that series lead to 2-0.

It’s a small sample size and a noticeable shift from the regular season, where almost all Clipper bench lineups were consistently producing a negative net rating. Leads are rarely safe when there is such a stark drop-off between starters and reserves. Rivers, and Crawford, the league’s reigning sixth man, are back. Green and Aldrich are gone. Bass and Felton should be adequate reinforcements.

Bass is the scrappy type contenders often make useful. While unspectacular, Felton emerged in the playoffs in Dallas after Deron Williams went down. He still has the potential to be a steadying presence so long as his minutes are kept relatively in check. Since Coach Doc Rivers rarely staggers the minutes of the starters, both Bass and Felton will have opportunities to impact a game.

Tom West: The Clippers second unit had its moments last season. They ranked fourth in bench points per game (38) in the regular season (14.2 from Jamal Crawford helped a lot), and guys like Austin Rivers and Cole Aldrich were key to the team ranking fourth in defensive efficiency (a major rise from 15th the previous season). The bench still wasn’t great. They weren’t too efficient (a collective field goal percentage of 42.3 in the regular season) and they would lose leads. The drop from three All-NBA caliber players in the starting lineup was always going to be noticeable. But they helped support the Big Two of Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan in Blake Griffin’s absence and in the playoffs.

Aldrich held the bench lineups together once he became a regular feature in the rotation, with rim protection, hustle and rebounding that was more than pleasantly surprising for fans. The problem is that his interior defense and work on the boards is gone, accounting for the team’s biggest loss of the offseason.

Marreese Speights is the key in this regard, replacing that defensive toughness with the kind of floor spacing that was far from existent with Aldrich. If Speights’ 38.7 three-point shot (41.9 in the playoffs) continues, space will open up immediately for Crawford to maneuver and guys like Rivers and Raymond Felton to drive. Mo Buckets living up to his name will only help to take pressure off streaky guards like Rivers and Crawford, and that’s an immediate positive.

Brandon Bass has a similar offensive skill set to Speights, albeit one that’s less productive and restricted to just inside the arc. Even still, he adds more depth, which is something that has been far from the truth in recent years. As for Felton, he offers far more potential to be a scoring spark plug and carry a larger workload than the tentative, 38-year-old Pablo Prigioni.

So, all things considered, a bunch of minimum deals, not to mention a promising, energizing two-way rookie in Brice Johnson, have rounded out the Clippers bench to the extent that it could improve. Sadly for L.A., though, no one can make up for the loss of Stone Cole Aldrich.

Marreese Speights will be                 this season.

Law Murray: Marreese Speights will be an enigma this season. We’ve seen Doc Rivers bring in players that just learned how to shoot threes before, and it didn’t work out at all (see: Spencer Hawes, Byron Mullens). Folks love to get excited when a big man shoots threes, and dismiss everything else. If Speights shoots the three well for the Clippers and opens up space, that’s nice. But the rest of his game is a little concerning.

For one, I noticed that Speights’ interior scoring plummeted as he got more comfortable shooting jumpers. Overall, Speights’ 2015-2016 field goal percentage of 43.2 percent was a career-low, and he only made 51.3 percent of his field goal attempts that came inside of three feet. Compare that to departed C Cole Aldrich, who made 66.7 percent of his field goal attempts that came inside of three feet last year for the Clippers. Like Aldrich, Speights has a career-long problem with fouls as well, which is part of the reason he hasn’t seen 20 minutes per game in a season since 2011-2012. And Steve Kerr rarely trusted Speights in the playoffs; Speights only averaged 7.9 minutes per game in the playoffs the last two years, shooting an abysmal 37.5 percent for the field.

I’m just saying, I saw folks get excited about PF Josh Smith coming to the Clippers on a minimum deal last year. You saw how that ended. The Clippers better hope that Speights is a bargain, and not the basement.

Kaveh Jam: A durable source of bench scoring. The loss of Aldrich might be the biggest blow to their bench. While Speights doesn’t check the same boxes Aldrich does, he packs more punch offensively and his shooting should stretch defenses, conceivably in lineups featuring Crawford. That means a bench unit with more offense, less defense – a trade-off that will be both beneficial and dreadful on any given night.

It’s difficult and unfair to evaluate Speights without proper context. Considering the ripple effects that sent him spiraling into the Clippers lap at a discounted rate, it is unequivocally an effective signing for a reserve big man that can shoot from distance.

Tom West: Mo’ Buckets. That’s what the Clippers need from Speights, and they need it to continue coming in the form of his jump shot. It’s allowed him to averaged 23 points per 36 minutes over the last two seasons, not to mention his 45.5 percent stroke from at least 16 feet out and 38.7 percent from three last season that can do so much for the Clippers’ spacing. If there’s going to be an element of his play that helps compensate for the loss of Aldrich’s defense, that will be it.

Speights has spoken about Aldrich’s offensive play since arriving in L.A., too. He’s referenced the scoring success of the former Clipper and he’s acknowledged the work inside, saying he knows he can do the same. Possibly with a little more work in the post to combine with his jumper and pick-and-pop game, Speights can be the next top bench scorer after Crawford in moderate minutes.

The guarantee about Speights for this season? He’s a big man who can shoot with a level of production that makes him an absolute steal for the minimum.

Who are you falling in love with first, Brice Johnson or Diamond Stone?

Law Murray: I’ll dismiss love here. I also wrote a whole article on ClipperBlog detailing how Doc Rivers and rookies/draft picks are oil and water. Johnson and Stone are not in enviable positions, and PG David Michineau will stay overseas (as he should). I’ve made multiple Brice Johnson-JaJuan Johnson comparisons this summer, and Diamond Stone having to go on D-League shuttles is far from inspiring.

That all said, I really feel like Johnson should get every opportunity to beat out Brandon Bass for a rotation spot at some point this season. If his body can get to the point where he can handle 20 minutes per game, then I think his skill set is a nice fit with this Clippers team. Johnson can run, has a decent stroke inside the arc, and he is long. Johnson showed in Orlando that he will go get lobs and finish. Johnson showed at North Carolina that he will work to get rebounds on both ends of the floor. For a team that was as awful at rebounding as the Clippers were last year, that’s a major key. But it’s an uphill climb for Johnson – he plays for a head coach that hasn’t played a rookie even ten minutes per game since the 2004-2005 season (Boston Celtics 1st round picks Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, Delonte West).

Kaveh Jam: Falling in love is probably not the word here, but both have good enough qualities to produce moderate confidence. Johnson played four years under Roy Williams at North Carolina but it wasn’t until his senior season where he broke through as one of the nation’s better interior players. With that sort of experience, Johnson is likely the more ready player.

Stone’s strengths are somewhat contrasting to that of the more athletic Johnson. At Maryland, Stone seemed to prefer a methodical, back-to-the-basket approach on offense. On defense, the Clippers will likely want to tap into his potential as a rim-protector.

Johnson’s athleticism makes him the more intriguing prospect and a principal reason he was one of the most efficient scorers in the country in converting shots created for him, per Draft Express. On a team with Chris Paul, that should summon major optimism. But if Doc continues leaning heavily on experience, playing time could be minimal in the short-term for both prospects – and that could impact how quickly and effectively they develop.

Tom West: I have to agree with Jam here that falling in love may be a little strong. Perhaps developing a crush in due time will be more apt. Of course, that affection from fans will be aimed towards Brice Johnson.

Both showed that they still have plenty of room to grow in Summer League, as would only be expected. Fouling was an issue for both, but Johnson’s mid-range shooting, floor running ability, rebounding, rolls to the basket, and obviously superior athleticism give him the edge over Diamond Stone. Plus, Brice was the Clippers’ top draft target, so that only adds more incentive for Doc to make better use of him.

Stone, currently a back-to-the-basket scorer first and foremost, will need more time to establish such an offensive skill set in the NBA. Against far better competition in the post with more strength, too, the 19-year-old is more of a work in progress than Johnson.

Meanwhile, the latter can help immediately (to an extent). In any minutes available outside of Griffin and Bass, Johnson has shown his ability as a help defender to protect the rim, he can crash the boards well, and his fluidity, speed and length at 6-11 make him a dynamic transition target for easy finishes. Johnson, more than anything else, brings energy right away in those areas, and that trait alone takes less developing to make an impact.

If he can make his jump shots consistently and add a few pounds to compete inside against tougher bigs, Johnson — who already has four years of college experience to Stone’s one — should be the favorite love affair as time goes by for Clippers fans.

The Core

Of all the disruptive factors for the Clippers last season, none was bigger than the absence of Blake Griffin who only managed to appear in 35 games. The Clippers managed fairly well in his absence, only winning four fewer games than they did the season before. But removing Griffin from their big three undoubtedly lowers their ceiling.

The graph below shows the minutes played and per 100 possession point differential for the Griffin-Chris Paul-DeAndre Jordan trio, for each of the five seasons they’ve been together.

Last season, the trio played the fewest minutes they’ve ever played together and by an enormous margin. However, they were still incredible effective — their +13.8 per 100 possession point differential was about two points better than the season-long point differential of the Golden State Warriors.

You can see in the graph that there was a general upward trajectory for this group. Each season, until last year, they played more minutes together and were more effective in those minutes. Age-related decline is lurking but if the Clippers can keep this group on the floor together, there’s no reason they can’t again be one of the best teams in the league.

For more NBA coverage and analysis, visit the FanSided NBA hub page.