AFC South wide open, and Andy Dalton is better than you know

When the 2016 NFL season kicks off, there will be some divisions almost sewn up from the beginning.

Nobody truly believes the NFC South is going to be won by anybody other than the Carolina Panthers. The same can be said for the New England Patriots in the AFC East.

Then there is the AFC South. While the Tennessee Titans figure to be the last-place team, the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars all have legitimate cases for the division’s mantle.

Unlike last season, when the South got to feast on its own weak before drawing the equally horrendous NFC South, the schedule won’t be kind. The interdivision games will be much tougher, and facing the AFC West along with the NFC North will be no easy task.

For fans of the three aforementioned contenders, there are different reasons to both believe and doubt.

In Houston, the team has a revamped offense with the additions of quarterback Brock Osweiler, running back Lamar Miller and rookie wide receivers Will Fuller and Braxton Miller. However, the defense could be severely crippled depending on how long it takes J.J. Watt to get back to 100 percent. Also, just how good is Osweiler, who to this point has made seven career starts.

Jacksonville has to be excited about all it has done in the offseason. The Jaguars added a bevy of talent on defense including Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, Prince Amukamara, Jalen Ramey, Dante Fowler Jr. (back from a torn ACL) and Myles Jack. Factor in an already good offense, and Jacksonville has reason to be excited. Still, a bad offensive line has to give considerable pause, not to mention a defense that has ample new faces.

Indianapolis has one reason to believe: Andrew Luck. After being injured with a lacerated kidney midway through the season in 2015, Luck is healthy and has weapons around him. The fifth-year quarterback out of Stanford has to be better, heaving 14 touchdowns to 12 interceptions last season, but logic reasons he will be. Unfortunately, the supporting cast both on defense and in front of him is sub-par. Can the Colts ride Luck’s arm to the playoffs?

Ultimately, Houston has the most complete roster if Osweiler can play. If he can’t the Texans are what they were a year ago, just with an upgrade at running back. Indianapolis is pinning all of its hopes on one man, who is at least going to be protected better with the addition of rookie Ryan Kelly at center. Jacksonville is the most upgraded talent-wise, but how does it all come together?

The AFC South won’t be the best division in the NFL, but it will be the most intriguing heading into September.

Film study

Last year, the Cincinnati Bengals were 10-2 before hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 13. On that day, quarterback Andy Dalton would throw a first-half interception into the arms of defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt. Upon attempting to tackle Tuitt, Dalton broke his right thumb. His season was over.

Cincinnati went on to finish the season 2-2 and won the AFC North, but lost to those same Steelers in a memorable Wild Card game, 18-16. Had Dalton been in that game, perhaps Marvin Lewis would not be 0-7 in the postseason, but a more palatable 1-6, if such a thing exists.

Dalton still has his doubters and those who point the finger of disappointment at the 2011 second-round pick from TCU. Yet, for all that noise, Dalton has quietly improved on a steady trajectory. Last year, Dalton threw for 3,250 yards and 25 touchdowns in a touch more than 12 full games. In one three-week stretch against the Baltimore Ravens, Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs, he enjoyed a trio of 300-yard passing days. The Bengals won all three games.

Dalton is better than most think. Here’s why:

Week 4: Kansas City at Cincinnati

This is only the fourth offensive snap of the game for Cincinnati against a top-10 defense on a 3rd and 2 from the Cincinnati 44-yard line. Dalton is in shotgun with a back and four wideouts. Kansas City is known for its aggressive man-press coverage under defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, and it is what we see here. It’s a Cover 1 scheme.

The arrowed matchup is A.J. Green against Ron Parker. Parker is a fine free safety, but he is playing out of position as a slot corner after Phillip Gaines tore his ACL the week prior. Dalton sees the mismatch, one created by offensive coordinator Hue Jackson.

Despite a bad, low snap that causes a fumble, Dalton maintains his composure. After picking up the ball, the fifth-year man takes one look and immediately picks up Green, who is streaking toward the sideline on a deep wheel route. Despite Parker having excellent coverage, Dalton trusts his read and receiver to make the play.

Considering the Kansas City pass rush and the other options available to him, Dalton makes the correct decision.

The result is a 44-yard completion to his All-Pro receiver. Safety Husain Abdullah is late coming over, only able to save a touchdown by shoving Green out of bounds. Parker was beaten throughout by Green, who caught seven passes for 82 yards.

Week 5: Seattle at Cincinnati

On this play, the Bengals are in their 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end). They have trips left with Mohamed Sanu in the slot. Sanu is matched up against Cary Williams, a sub-par corner who is used to being on the outside. Seattle is playing man coverage and bringing a delayed blitzer, creating a five-man rush.

Dalton correctly identifies Sanu as the route with the best chance to win. The crossing route is a known man-beater, and it does the job against Williams. Sanu is able to win a clean release, and the offensive line does just enough to allow Dalton time. Many quarterbacks would look to escape the pocket here, knowing the blitz was coming with no open hot routes. Instead, Dalton stands his ground and makes an accurate throw for a first down.

Take a look at all the other receivers. Unless Dalton wants to challenge Richard Sherman with a perfect throw to Marvin Jones, his other options are completely smothered.

For an even better understanding of this play, look at the chaos around Dalton. Michael Bennett is about to hit him, and K.J. Wright is coming free up the middle. Dalton never flinches.

Week 11: Cincinnati at Arizona

This play is simple and yet incredible complicated. Arizona is showing man coverage (which is the actual coverage), although with a bevy of wrinkles. Circled in black in Tyrann Mathieu, who is about to come on a corner blitz. Mathieu’s man-coverage responsibilities are passed off to the safety behind him. Meanwhile, A.J. Green and corner Patrick Peterson are locked in a press-man situation at the top of the picture (yellow circle).

Running back Jeremy Hill stays in to block Mathieu while nose tackle Frostee Rucker does a twist to come off the left edge. In essence, Arizona is blitzing Mathieu with a twist up front, and a Cover 1 coverage scheme.

Dalton rolls left with the blitzer coming off the right edge, cutting down his reads. While only the safety valve on a flat route breaks open anyway, Dalton is focused on hitting Green, who is running a comeback against Peterson, an All-Pro corner.

At the time of release, look at the separation Green has from Peterson. Zero. Dalton is trusting his receiver once again, taking advantage of the talent around him.

The throw is high, but Green comes down with the ball. While the accuracy could be better here, Dalton does the right thing. The placement is high and outside, where the pass either results in an incompletion or a catch.

Here’s a look at the pressure Rucker was putting on when Dalton made the throw.

Power rankings

10 best NFC teams in Super Bowl era

1. 1989 San Francisco 49ers (15-1; Super Bowl champions)
2. 1985 Chicago Bears (15-1; Super Bowl champions)
3. 1984 San Francisco 49ers (15-1; Super Bowl champions)
4. 1966 Green Bay Packers (12-2; Super Bowl champions)
5. 1986 New York Giants (14-2; Super Bowl champions)
6. 1991 Washington Redskins (14-2; Super Bowl champions)
7. 1992 Dallas Cowboys (13-3; Super Bowl champions)
8. 1999 St. Louis Rams (13-3; Super Bowl champions)
9. 1969 Minnesota Vikings (12-2; NFC champions)
10. 1977 Dallas Cowboys (12-2; Super Bowl champions)

Quotable

"“I think it affected everything. Me being a receiver, it affected my whole game,” Cooper explained. “Talk about a foot injury, you can’t release how you want to, you can’t come out of your breaks how you want to. You can only get open in two ways, off of the line or out of your breaks. So it really affected my game, but I was mentally tough and I fought through it.”– Oakland Raiders Amari Cooper, reflecting on his rookie season, per NFL.com"

Cooper talked about his foot injury from 2015 on the radio earlier this week, explaining the kind of pain he felt. Incredibly, Cooper still hauled in 72 passes for 1,070 yards and six touchdowns.

If the second-year man steps his game up another level, Oakland’s offense will be that much more dangerous. With Derek Carr, Latavius Murray and Michael Crabtree joining Cooper, the Raiders expect big things from this young, talented group. Oakland has not made the playoffs since reaching Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2002, but this team has real hope of ending that drought.

Random stat

The only NFC team yet to meet the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs is the New Orleans Saints.

Info learned this week

1. Broncos refuse to name starter

Going into their preseason opener against the Chicago Bears, the Denver Broncos are not ready to name a starting quarterback, per ESPN. Head coach Gary Kubiak is going with both Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian at the top of the depth chart. However, Sanchez will play the first quarter with Siemian getting the second.

Frankly, Sanchez has to win this job. If he can’t beat out Siemian, a seventh-round pick who was middling at Northwestern (11th in Big Ten passer rating as a senior), it’s all over for the veteran. Still, Kubiak is fostering competition, and that is never a bad thing.

2. Patriots are suddenly hurting

On Tuesday, the New England Patriots watched as both wide receiver Julian Edelman and outside linebacker Rob Ninkovich had to leave practice early, per NFL.com.

Edelman has had preliminary evaluations and the word is that he avoided serious injury to his left foot, which was surgically repaired in the offseason. There is nothing substantial on Ninkovich, who left with a triceps injury. Should there be a tear, the Patriots would be in a very tough spot in terms of pass rush.

The AFC East could become more of a race if Ninkovich has to miss real time. While the Buffalo Bills have sustained one injury after the next, both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets have been very healthy throughout camp.

3. Nature Boy calls out Norman

The Atlanta Falcons have been a very quiet team this offseason, but Ric Flair, a.k.a The Nature Boy, is looking to change that. When visiting training camp, Flair took Washington Redskins corner Josh Norman to task, stating he couldn’t hang with Falcons receiver Julio Jones, per ESPN.

Last year, Jones torched Norman is Carolina’s only regular-season defeat, catching nine passes for 178 yards and a touchdown. This year, the two sides will meet on Aug. 11 in a preseason clash.

4. Lane Johnson potentially makes costly error

On Tuesday, reports surfaced that Philadelphia Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson will be suspended 10 games for his second violation of the performance enhancing drug policy. For his part, Johnson has stated he will appeal.

Should the suspension happen, Johnson will see the $35.5 million guaranteed in his January contract extension become non-guaranteed. In essence, Johnson would have to earn that money back, and the Eagles could cut him without near the cap penalty down the line.

On the field, losing Johnson would be brutal for Philadelphia. The Eagles have many quality opponents during that 10-game stretch including the Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Redskins, Minnesota Vikings, and Seattle Seahawks.

5. Bucs tight end stops hitting snooze

Austin Seferian-Jenkins was kicked off the practice field during OTAs by Tampa Bay Buccaneers first-year head coach Dirk Koetter. Now, the tight end says it served as a “wake-up call,” according to NBC Sports.

Right now, Seferian-Jenkins is the second tight end on the depth chart but that could change quickly. Last year, the University of Washington product caught 21 passes for 338 yards and four scores. If Seferian-Jenkins wants to become more than a replaceable player, he needs to double those numbers in 2016. Perhaps Koetter is the right man to bring out his talents.

Asylum mailbag

I really enjoyed your film study and analysis pointing out the positives and negatives the Texans have with their new QB. While patience will help on that side, I see their most pressing concern on the other side. Is there a combination of personnel and scheme that can help plug the hole that exists with the loss of J. J. Watt?

-BBF

Let’s start with the obvious. Nobody is replacing J.J Watt. Losing Jared Crick in the offseason didn’t help either, but the defense has ways to step up.

Jadeveon Clowney absolutely has to be better. He has been either injured or disappointing since being drafted with the first-overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. If he’s not at least good this year, it’s a huge issue. Also, look for continued development out of second-year corner Kevin Johnson. Johnson was good last year, but if he’s a notch better in 2016, the Texans will get that extra split-second to rush the quarterback.

I’m finding it very difficult to find a scheme that can stop/contain the Gronk/Bennett duo. Even if they manage to take those two out of the game, which i don’t see happening, Edelman will be open or a back in the flat. I think this could be the best offense the Pats have had since ’07. How do see defenses gameplanning the Pats this year?

-Rob

Provided the Patriots are healthy and Tom Brady is back in the saddle, this could be the best passing attack in football along with Pittsburgh and Green Bay. New England has a killer two-tight end set and the best slot receiver in the game.

For any defense, it’s about creating pressure up the middle against Brady. To stop the Patriots, teams need to have athletic safeties who can cover and good blitzing linebackers, or a dominant front. For example, a team that I believe is a tough matchup for the Patriots is the Baltimore Ravens. C.J. Mosley can cover, Eric Weddle can cover, and nose tackle Brandon Williams can push the pocket.

In short, look for teams to play a ton of Cover 1 (one deep safety) while trying to jam Gronkowski and Bennett the line. It’s much easier said than done.

Who do you think will be the first coach fired this year in the NFL, and who are your early Rookies of the Year, offensively and defensively ?

– Lord Harry

Getting two for one, I love it. For the first coach fired, I’ll say Jim Caldwell of the Detroit Lions. Detroit was incredibly disappointing in 2015 and there is no reason to believe it gets better this season. Caldwell was almost given his walking papers a year ago, so this could happen quickly if the Lions get off to a bad start.

As for the Rookies of the Year, it’s an interesting class. The first three players picked look to be non-impact guys this season, with Joey Bosa holding out. I’ll gamble on defense and take Robert Nkemdiche of the Arizona Cardinals. If he wasn’t such a question mark in terms of motor, he would have been a top-five pick. Look for Bruce Arians to get the best out of him.

For offense, it is a barren first round. I’ll take a second-round selection in New York Giants wide receiver Sterling Shepard. Across from Odell Beckham Jr., he is going to get all kinds of opportunities.

What do you think of Matt Stafford’s evolution as a quarterback and does he stand a chance to succeed without his primary weapon at wide out? Do you agree that this is the beginning of a dynasty in Detroit?

– Horsehands

Stafford is a tough guy to read. He will make some incredible throws with his cannon arm one second, and then throw into double coverage the next. I think he’s a good quarterback who reminds me an awful lot of Jay Cutler, without the bad attitude.

Detroit did a nice job of signing Marvin Jones, but he doesn’t replace Calvin Johnson, obviously. Unfortunately, I don’t share your optimism about the Lions having a dynasty any time soon.

History lesson of the week

The American Football League lasted 10 seasons, from 1960-69. In that time, the Houston Oilers (1960-61), Kansas City Chiefs (1962 as Dallas Texans, 1966 and 1969) and Buffalo Bills (1964-65) won multiple AFL titles.

Yet many believe the best AFL team of all-time was the 1963 San Diego Chargers, which had an 11-3 record. San Diego crushed the Boston Patriots 51-10 in the title game, coached by Sid Gillman and with a roster that included wide receiver Lance Alworth and offensive tackle Ron Mix. All three are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Many who witnessed the Chargers that season claim they would have beaten the NFL-champion Chicago Bears, led by George Halas.

Parting shot

While you are hearing about every player and team seemingly making massive strides on a daily basis, remember we are in training camp.

It’s a great time for fans of bad teams because hope springs eternal. It is also the worst time, perhaps outside of the NFL Draft, for the truth. Nobody should believe the hype, because it most cases, it is fools gold.

While you are going to hear about the Cleveland Browns making a move or the San Francisco 49ers being dangerous under Chip Kelly, bear this in mind: teams have to sell hope. Those two franchises will be picking high next spring, because they aren’t good.

The same could be said for individual players. Yes, we have heard that Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian look like gangbusters. No, they won’t actually. The Denver Broncos must rely on their great defense to overcome the quarterback position, despite the reports coming from camp.

For the Philadelphia Eagles, Sam Bradford won’t vault into the Most Valuable Player discussion. With the Baltimore Ravens, not all of their injured stars will come back better than ever.

Remember how you felt about the 32 teams before they hit training camp? That’s exactly how you should feel now.