Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks as of Preseason Week 1. These rankings are submitted by Matt Rogers, FantasyCPR Editor, to FantasyPros. The results are based on career to date and 2015-2016 statistics, as well as 2016-2017 expectations of the writer.
With the first preseason games FINALLY underway, it’s time to start evaluating player rankings and prepare for your Fantasy Football Draft day(s). I recently submitted my ‘Expert’ Fantasy Football rankings to FantasyPros, and this article presents the Quarterback results, as well as an explanation for several of the ranking decisions.
Before we go into detail, here are my top 30 QB draft rankings, as of week 1 of the NFL Preseason, along with a comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking and Average Draft Position so far this year:
2016 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings, ADP – Average Draft Position
Next: Top 5 Fantasy QB's
Top 5 QB’s
Cam Newton (1) is not only the undisputed number one Fantasy Football Quarterback, in my mind, but also the top fantasy football player, period. Before you question my judgement, keep in mind that in 2015, Newton threw for over 3,800 yards, had 35 TD’s, and only 10 INT’s. His passing stats are nearly that of Tom Brady’s, and better than Carson Palmer’s, in 2015. But what sets Newton apart from all other QB’s, he had over 600 rushing yards, more than David Johnson, and 10 rushing touchdowns, as many as Todd Gurley. While Johnson and Gurley admittedly didn’t play full seasons, I think you get the point. Newton does everything. If Cam stays healthy, ‘Superman’ will likely take your team into the playoffs, and beyond. Unless, you somehow significantly botched every other position.
After Newton at number 1, spots 2-4 are somewhat interchangeable, you really can’t go wrong with any of these picks, barring injury. While Russell Wilson (3) is in many ways Cam Newton ‘Light’, Wilson doesn’t have the same large body type as Newton, who can ram his way into the endzone. Wilson has nearly identical passing numbers to Aaron Rodgers (2) last year, but Rodgers also did that with a few weapons ‘down’, like Jordy Nelson who was injured for the season very early on. With a re-loaded set of offensive weapons, I expect Rodgers to surge beyond his 2015 stats. Still, Wilson is also a great pick.
Two years ago, Andrew Luck (4) helped me reach the championship in one of my fantasy leagues, only to let me down in the championship game. Still, he had a tremendous season. Unfortunately, Luck struggled with an injury almost the entire year last year, and had a very young core group of receivers around him. This year, hopefully with a more mature group of receivers and an offensive line better protecting Andrew, I expect Luck to emerge back into his 2014 seasonal form and compete for a top 5 QB spot.
Every year, over the past couple of years, I wonder when age will catch up to Tom Brady (10) and Drew Brees (5), then I remember it’s Brady and Brees and that’s a silly question. Thanks to an emerging group of receivers, like Brandin Cooks, and the Giants Secondary (giving up 7 TD’s in one game), Drew was able to compile a top 5 fantasy QB season in 2015. I expect Brees will have a similar year this year, but with a receiver weapon like Antonio Brown, Ben Roethlisberger (6) is lurking just behind Brees, and Big Ben could take over the spot.
Next: Fantasy QB Sleepers
Fantasy QB Sleepers
Picking a Fantasy Football ‘sleeper’ can be difficult, because really a sleeper is someone no one else is talking about. I’ll admit, some of my sleeper options aren’t new ideas, but I noticed other Fantasy Football Experts on FantasyPros.com have lower expectations and these guys some of these guys are being drafted lower than I expected.
Blake Bortles (8) had a surprising year in 2015, although as the Jacksonville Jaguars continue to make smart draft and free agent decisions, and with the addition of Gus Bradley as head coach, the Jags were bound to finally get better. Blake had over 4,400 passing yards and 35 passing touchdowns. Bortles even had over 300 rushing yards and 2 rushing TD’s. I didn’t see that coming. I now have Bortles in the 8th position, which is only 1 above the average expert choice and right at the ADP. However, the reason I consider Bortles to be a sleeper, is due to the potential for Blake to be a top 5 QB this year. Bortles now has a stable team, and set of offensive tools around him. Blake is also maturing and hopefully can shake the 18 INT result from 2015, his biggest problem. If he does, he’ll be a well known top QB target in drafts next year.
While Tyrod Taylor (12) has been in the NFL longer than Jameis Winston (15), I consider them each to be in similar situation coming into this season. Having each lead a team through the 2015 season, for the first time in the NFL, both Taylor and Winston had mixed results, but also flashes of brilliance and signs of massive potential. Taylor looked sharp in the pocket earlier in the season, but later on started to make silly mistakes and paid for those mistakes. Still Tyrod only had 6 INT’s and 1 fumble all season. But his propensity to put the ball down and run, while exciting, could limit his season and makes the Bills coaching staff, and management, nervous. That being said, Taylor, at times, looks a lot like Russell Wilson. I currently believe experts and the ADP are underselling Taylor’s upside.
Winston, being a rookie, had to work through some growing pains. Jameis had 15 INT’s in 2015, although not that surprising for a rookie. What was surprising was Winston’s maturity on the field, often able to bounce back, leading to over 4,000 yards passing along with 22 passing touchdowns. But what sets Winston apart for me, like Cam Newton, Jameis is able to use his large body to force his way into the endzone, rushing for over 200 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns in his NFL debut. The upside for Winston is enormous and for some reason he seems to be getting over-looked during drafts so far.
Next: High Risk QB's
High Risk QB’s
Since watching him at Michigan State, I’ve always been a fan of Kirk Cousins (21). Kirk is a gritty guy with a solid arm and decent pocket presence. As a college quarterback, he was great. When the Redskins drafted Cousins a few rounds after drafting RGIII, I actually thought it was a good move. If RGIII doesn’t work out, you have a fall-back option, with not as much upside. He’s a great backup QB, was my rationale. Although, at the time, I certainly didn’t see RGIII’s time in Washington playing out the way it did. Kirk had an impressive season last year, but, I’m skeptical. As an Eagles fan, I remember Nick Foles impressive season under Chip Kelly. However, when Kelly tried, and succeeded, to trade Foles away, I started to wonder if Nick was just a ‘flash in the pan.’ So far, at least the Rams agree. I’m not trying to make a direct comparison from Cousins to Foles, but I do think there are some similarities to the situation. When the Redskins refused to sign Kirk to a long-term deal, and used the 1-year Franchise tag on him, I considered that to be a major red flag! The skins clearly aren’t yet convinced Cousins in the long-term answer as well, they’ve seen this show before too (although different circumstances, RGIII). Yes, Cousins has better weapons to throw to, rookie Josh Doctson, Jordan Reed, and DeSean Jackson. However, it remains to be seen if he can replicate his 2015 season, and there are already rumors he’s struggling to throw the ball accurately downfield, at camp. So I knocked Cousins down to 21, well below expert consensus and the ADP.
Since we mentioned the Eagles already, let’s talk about another big variance to the ECR and ADP, Sam Bradford (23). I’ll admit, I’m an Eagles fan and partial to the Eagles. However, as most NFL fans know, Eagles fans aren’t usually very optimistic and we’re very hard on our players. No, I don’t expect Bradford to have a stellar year. I know the Eagles will struggle this year, especially on the offensive side of the ball. However, I do find it odd that Bradford had higher Fantasy ratings when he was in Chip Kelly’s system, an offensive play type that clearly doesn’t fit Sam’s abilities, versus Doug Pederson’s west-coast/Andy Reid type offense. Also, Pederson was able to take a sub-par (and Bradford type) Alex Smith and turn him into a decent starting quarterback. While the Eagles decided to take a very high risk move and trade future picks away for Carson Wentz, I do not believe we’ll see Carson this year, and maybe not even next year, unless some very bad things happen at the QB position for the Eagles. The ECR currently has Bradford at 32, making him the worst starting QB in the NFL, and the ADP has Sam at 31, nearly the worst. So, for example, they’re saying Mark Sanchez will have a better year than Bradford, that just doesn’t make any sense to me. I am avoiding Bradford for my fantasy team this year, but he will likely surprise people, given the clearly low expectations set for the 2016 season.