Fantasy Football: Under and Over Valued Players

Feb 7, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Denver Broncos running back C.J. Anderson (22) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers in the fourth quarter in Super Bowl 50 at Levi /

Thank whatever deity you believe in, because football is finally here. It’s time to slowly start turning our focus from MLB to NFL. All though DFS will basically consume my life come early September, season long fantasy still holds a special place in my heart. Who knew serious bragging rights would be more motivating than money? Each year I try to prepare by taking my predictions and comparing them to those of the crowd. For those of you who have some time before your draft party, here some players that standout to me as over and under valued.

Next: Overvalued Players

Feb 7, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (88) misses a pass against Carolina Panthers cornerback Josh Norman (24) during the second quarter in Super Bowl 50 at Levi /

Average Draft Position (ADP) stats comes from NFL.com

Overvalued:

Demaryius Thomas – ADP 32.02

In my last fantasy football article I mentioned some of my uncertainties around DT. Whether its Sanchez or Siemian at quarterback, I’m not sure how you could draft DT in the fourth round with any confidence. Thomas was able to heavily pad his stat line in the form of screens last year. Old man Peyton’s inability to throw down field allowed Thomas to rack up these short receptions. Thomas’ red zone efficiency has decreased over the past two years and I think this trend should continue. With Gary Kubiak at the helm, running first and passing second, Thomas seems to have a floor too low for a fourth round pick.

Todd Gurley – ADP 4.42

Running backs in fantasy football derive their value from usage and with the Rams projected to only win 7.5 games, they’re not going to be in a position to utilize the running game and run out the clock. Don’t get me wrong, Gurley is still going to be a beast, but I’m don’t plan on targeting two down backs on a team that will be trailing in most games.

Kelvin Benjamin – ADP 59.96

<img class=”size-medium wp-image-68097″ src=”https://fansided.com/files/2016/08/9341765-kelvin-benjamin-nfl-carolina-panthers-minicamp-367×260.jpg” alt=”Jun 15, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (13) catches a pass at the practice field at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports” width=”300″ height=”213″ /> Jun 15, 2016; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (13) catches a pass at the practice field at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Benjamin racked up over 1000 yards and 9 touchdowns in his rookie campaign, but things have changed greatly since 2014. Benjamin benefited from being the only threat in the panthers offense. He was targeted 146 times, but only managed to catch 73 balls. I think he should be able to cut into Ginn’s targets but with the emergence of Olsen and Funchess, I think the 6th round may be too high. Oh, not to mention, he’s coming off of surgery for a torn ACL…

Ryan Mathews – ADP 44.61

I still can’t figure out this Eagles offense. The obvious signs would point to Matthews being the guy. With the Eagles bringing in, Pederson, a coach favoring the run, and losing the starting running back, Murray, all signs say to fire away on Matthews. However, Matthews is like starting up an old Ford Pinto, every time you turn the key you’re praying nothing bad happens. Matthews has been hurt his whole career and is now suffering from an ankle injury. Not to mention, the Birds also have the veteran, Sproles, who could split carries or even take the starting job at any moment. Similar to Gurley, the Eagles are only projected to win seven games, thus indicating that they may be need to be throwing the ball a bit more.

Cam Newton – ADP 17.65

This is just a typical case of recency bias and positional scarcity. Newton was a stud last year and he obviously warrants being the top drafted QB, but this early in the draft is way too high. The value difference between first round wide receivers and late round wide receivers is drastically greater than that same difference for quarterbacks. From a game theory perspective, there is more value in waiting to draft a quarterback in later rounds.

Next: Undervalued Players

Oct 18, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Donte Moncrief (10) tries to catch a pass against New England Patriots cornerback Malcolm Butler (21) during the NFL game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /

Undervalued:

Donte Moncrief – ADP 83.95

Besides being hurt, Moncrief’s second year was hampered by both injured and bad quarterbacks. Vegas likes the Colts to bounce back and has them projected to win 9.5 games. I’m a firm believer that Luck will have a huge season and Moncrief will be the beneficiary. Its tough to decipher what is real and what’s just noise, but everything coming out of Colt’s camp indicates that Moncrief could be a top receiver this year. I’m extremely bullish on the Colt’s offense in general, this year.

Latavius Murray – ADP 57.55

Dare I say, don’t sleep on Oakland?

Vegas has Oakland at 8.5 wins, with the over being the favorite. Murray is the only true running option for the Raiders, where he received 72.8% of the running back touches last year. Oakland has significantly beefed up it’s offensive line with off season signings and I think Murray is going to take advantage of that. If you’re like me (taking WR’s early and RB’s later) Murray could be a steal at this drafting position.

C.J. Anderson – ADP 33.79

Calling back to the Demaryius Thomas write up, the value of Thomas and Anderson are inversely related. Uncertainty at the quarterback position would lead us to believe that the offense should be leaning heavily on the running game. The Broncos have also added two linemen, Okung and Stephenson. Anderson fell flat last year, but he ended the season much better and everything coming out of camp indicates that he could live up to the hype that he missed out on last year. There are also reports that he’s lost a significant amount of weight, which not only is showing his commitment to succeeding, but should also help is foot problems.

Allen Robinson – ADP 16.60

Robinson had a huge year last year with 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns. Robinson is only in his third year and reports have indicated he looks even better this off season. Being Jacksonville’s only legitimate threat, I prefer Robinson over the likes of Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, and A.J. Green.

Devin Funchess – ADP 149.99

I’m all over Funchess this year. Funchess had a much more typical rookie year, where Carolina held him back a bit. He’s, 6’4, 225lbs, and has all but solidified his role as the number two wide receiver. River boat Ron has praised Funchess this off season indicating growth and confidence in the second year wide out.

Home/Fantasy