There are few things more predictable than Stoke finishing mid-table in the Premier League. Can Mark Hughes guide them to a higher finish in 2016-17?
Related Story: Premier League season preview: West Ham
INS: Joe Allen (£13 million, Liverpool), Ramadan Sobhi (£5 million, Al Ahly), Ryan Sweeney (£250k, AFC Wimbledon)
OUTS: Peter Odemwingie (released, unassigned), Alex Grant (released, Perth Glory)
THE STORY: Death. Taxes. Political corruption. Sun goes up. Sun goes down. Few things are as constant as these, but when it comes the Premier League, Stoke meandering to a mid-table finish is as predictable as it gets. The Potters joined England’s top flight in 2008, and every season since they’ve earned somewhere between 42 and 54 points, always ending up somewhere between 14th and 9th, where they have finished for the past three seasons.
The optimist would say Stoke have matched their best Premier League finish ever three years in a row, and last year they beat big dogs Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea and West Ham along the way. The pessimist would point out that even with those results, along with points secured again Arsenal, Tottenham and champions Leicester, Stoke finished nine points behind eighth-place Liverpool and 27 points behind the Reds on goal difference on -14, the second worst mark ever for a top-nine side. Are the Potters peaking or plateauing?
Many a relegated or recently-promoted side would sign up in a heartbeat for Stoke’s extended run of comfort and security. Fortunately for the club’s supporters, chairman Peter Coates does not endorse settling for safety, saying one need look no further than the Potters’ opening opponent for a warning worth heeding.
“You cannot take anything for granted,” Coates said, “and Middlesbrough, a very fine football club, is a good example of that. Everybody considered them an established Premier League club, but one bad season and down they want, so nobody is immune in such a competitive league.”
One player Stoke hope will help them rise above their usual mid-table finish is not currently on the squad. West Bromwich Albion striker Saido Berahino has been openly sought after by Mark Hughes, who admitted the team’s interest in the player by name in his most recent press conference. Stoke are rumored to have offered in the neighborhood of £20 million for Berahino, a move that may be on hold until/unless West Brom acquire Liverpool’s Christian Benteke.
Summer transfers Joe Allen and Ramadan Sobhi are interesting offensive talents, and in all likelihood the Potters need one or both to deliver if the team is to improve on last year’s paltry 41 goals in 38 games. In addition to needing the new blood to impress, Stoke will look to a return to health and form by captain Ryan Shawcross, who has missed 6-8 weeks each of the last two campaigns with back injuries (a worrisome trend for a player nearing 30), as well as continued quality from Marko Arnautovic and more consistent from from Xherdan Shaqiri. The Potters will hope Shaqiri’s goal-of-the-Euros is a sign of things to come.
KEY PLAYER: A club like Stoke can change their stylistic approach all it wants — as they did when they shifted from Tony Pulis’ physical, grind-it-out, low-scoring approach to Mark Hughes’ more-adventurous-if-not-always-more-prolific counterattacking system — but the end results are generally similar (mid-table), because in order to move the needle, a team needs difference-makers on the pitch. The Potters have failed to develop from their youth system for more than a decade, a critical failing given the team’s lack of glamour or appeal to earth-shaking star transfer targets. That’s what makes Julien Ngoy potentially so important to the club’s present and future.
Having drawn interest from Real Madrid, Arsenal and Manchester United as a teenage prodigy, Ngoy passed on those big names to join Stoke, where first-team football was a more realistic target. Ngoy could be a real momentum changer for the Potters and possesses the sort of pace and dynamism not often associated with this club.
THE MANAGER: Mark Hughes entered last season having led Stoke to best-ever points and goals totals in 2014-15. Rather than build on that success last year, the Potters regressed on both sides of the ball, and collapsed late in 2016, winning only one of their last seven games. They essentially averaged a goal per game; the 55 goals they conceded matched their worst Premier League total, a mark set in their first season in the top flight. The pressure is on for Hughes to show he’s steering the ship in the right direction, up the table, while also establishing an identity going forward. Hughes had Stoke playing three at the back during a relatively short and underwhelming preseason; how long will he stick with that approach if the results don’t show? Another challenge the manager faces: while he’s shown he can get his team up for the big games against the big names and improved Stoke’s road performances, the Potters need to be consistent against teams mid-table and below, and re-establish their home pitch as a place other teams dread visiting.
Next: Premier League season preview: Everton
BEST CASE: Allen leads a rejuvenated attack, Shawcross leads a tightened, toughened defense, Hughes plugs all the holes without creating any new ones, and Stoke impress in domestic cup competitions while rising high enough in the standings to contend for continental play.
WORST CASE: The transfers stall out, last year’s late regression mushrooms into an all-out collapse, and Coates’ Middlesbrough warning turns out to be prophetic as the Potters slip toward the bottom of the table.