Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers, as of Preseason Week 1. These rankings are submitted by Matt Rogers, FantasyCPR Editor, to FantasyPros. The results are based on career to date and 2015-2016 statistics, as well as 2016-2017 expectations of the writer.
The first week of preseason games concluded this past weekend, and it’s time to evaluate player rankings and prepare for your Fantasy Football Draft day(s). I recently submitted ‘Expert’ Fantasy Football rankings to FantasyPros, and this article presents the Wide Receiver results, as well as an explanation for several of the ranking decisions.
Before we go into detail, here are my top 30 WR draft rankings, as of week 1 of the NFL Preseason, along with a comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking and Average Draft Position so far this year:
2016 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings
ADP – Average Draft Position
Next: Top 5 WR's
Top 5 WR’s
Over the last three seasons, Antonio Brown (1) averaged an amazing 180 targets and 125 receptions. That’s an incredible amount of production for any wide receiver at any point in time. It was a much different era, but for perspective, Jerry Rice only had over 120 receptions in one season, 1995 with the San Fransisco 49ers. Antonio also averaged 1,677 yards and over 10 TD’s the last three seasons. Brown has remained healthy in his career, and if he does so again this year, he’s a lock to be not only the top fantasy football wide receiver, but the best fantasy football player option, and he should be the number one pick in every draft.
If there’s anyone close to Brown, it’s Julio Jones (2). Jones has had enormous potential since being the 6th overall pick of the 2011 draft, for the Atlanta Falcons. After a very good rookie and sophomore season, Jones unfortunately had an injury plagued season in 2013. But, Julio bounced back in 2014 with 104 receptions, 1,593 yards, and 6 TD’s. Last year, Jones had Brown-like production with 204 targets from Matt Ryan, 136 receptions, 1,871 yards, and 8 TD”s. Jones wasn’t far behind Brown, and in my opinion, is the 2nd best WR, and 2nd best fantasy football player option in the overall draft.
Expert and ADP consensus had Odell Beckham Jr. (4) listed at number 2, but I’m not convinced yet. Beckham clearly has incredible talent, and had 13 TD’s last year, but ‘only’ 93 receptions. It also appeared that Beckham unraveled at times during the season, potentially buckling to the hype surrounding him. To me, this is a red flag. I still think Odell has a great season, but probably not top 3, struggling at times to keep up with his legendary character, and keeping a cool head. Instead, I could see someone like DeAndre Hopkins (3) sneaking into the top 3 spot. Unfortunately, Hopkins production depends heavily on Brock Osweiler‘s development as not only a the new starting QB for the Texans, but also as a career start, after walking out behind Payton Manning’s shadow in Denver. Still, with a sub-par QB like Brian Hoyer at the helm last season, Hopkins was able to pull in 111 receptions, over 1,500 yards, 11 TD’s, and even a 2 point conversion. If that’s his floor, I’d love to see his ceiling!
Since his rookie season, A.J. Green (5) has been a dominating WR for the Cincinnati Bengals. After five NFL seasons, Green averaged 83 receptions, on 141 targets, over 1,200 yards, and 9 TD’s per year. That’s a great year for any receiver, but Green is doing it every year. I like A.J. as a top 5 receiver for that reason, he’s a lock for fantastic WR stats. You could also go with Dez Bryant (6) as the 5th best WR, but I’m concerned about the situation in Dallas, unsure of Tony Romo‘s health, and the team seems to have some sort of distraction almost every month.
Next: Underrated/Sleeper WR's
Underrated/Sleeper WR’s
Mike Evans (7) has enormous potential heading into the 2016 season. Admittedly, Evans is a little hard to figure out. Mike had 68 receptions with over 1,000 yards and 12 TD’s in his rookie season (2014). In his sophomore year, Evan had 74 receptions with over 1,200 yards, but only 3 TD’s. Still, the only frustrating stat in his two year career was only 3 TD’s last year. As Jameis Winston continues to mature, I expect he’ll find Mike more often in the Red Zone, and Evans will easily be a fantasy football top 10 WR. Most experts agree, with the consensus landing Evans at number 8. However, for some reason, his average draft position falls to 12. So for some reason, the average fantasy football player is likely scared off from Evans’ 2015 season. Take advantage of that, and pick Mike earlier than your average player.
Another WR likely getting impacted by his 2015 performance, is Keenan Allen (10). Allen had 67 receptions on 89 targets, with 725 yards, and 4 touchdowns in 2015. That may seem underwhelming, but keep in mind, that’s only after eight games, when Keenan went down with a season ending injury. Allen is back, and healthy, in 2016. If you assume Allen could replicate 2015, but through a full season, he would end the season with 134 receptions (similar to Brown and Jones), with 1,450 yards, and 8 TD’s. That’s top 5 stats, so I’m assuming not all goes exceeding well each week, and Allen has a few set-backs here or there. However, That still gives us a top 10 wide receiver.
Kelvin Benjamin (15) had enormous potential entering the 2015 season, his sophomore year. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL before the season could start. However, the Carolina Panthers still found a way to spread the ball around and get to the super bowl, only falling short to an incredible Denver Broncos defense. We could only imagine what the Panthers could’ve done with Benjamin on the field in the Super Bowl. In his rookie year, Kelvin had 73 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and 9 TD’s. Replicating those status alone, would put Benjamin in the top 15 last season. ECR and ADP currently has Kelvin at 23 and 18, respectively. It’s possible the Panthers have moved on from Benjamin, but it’s hard to ignore such a promising passing target on a team who really could use one.
Another sleeper is Jarvis Landry (18). Landry had a solid season, in 2015, a bright-spot on an otherwise dark offense. Landry had 110 receptions with 1,157 yards and 4 TD’s. They’re not top 15 stats, but Landry has an opportunity to get much better. With 166 targets, Jarvis had the 6th most targets of all WR’s last year. With better QB to WR report this year, it’s possible Landry could crack the top 15, or even top 10.
Next: Overrated WR's
Overrated WR’s
In many respects, Demaryius Thomas (21) is not an overrated fantasy football wide receiver. Thomas has done well with a good, and sometimes bad, Peyton Manning. Last year, Thomas had over 100 receptions, with over 1,200 yards, and 6 TD’s. However, with the Broncos’ searching for their next quarterback, I’m not comfortable assuming Thomas can replicate his season last year, or do better. In fact, I’m more worried with Mark Sanchez behind center. Sanchez did throw Demaryius a TD in the Broncos first preseason game this past weekend, but Thomas look like he was waiting for a punt return after burning the Bears DB, that was all Thomas. So with massive question marks at QB, I knocked Demaryius 3 below the ECR, and 4 below the ADP.
Two more fantasy football wide receivers who concern me are Julian Edelman (23) and Golden Tate (26). First, with Tom Brady unable to play for the first month of the season, I think the Patriots will struggle to maintain their common offensive rhythm, and I think that’ll take a hit to Edelman’s 2016 stats. Edelman is probably a good WR to stash, but you can more than likely just pull him off the waiver wire, after the draft. In Golden Tate, I think expectations are too high that he’ll be the major beneficiary of Calvin Johnson‘s, Megatron, departure. The Detroit Lions also now have Marvin Jones Jr., who is very similar to Tate. I suspect Jones and Tate will share the receiver load for the Lions, with Tate have a season much like last year.