Fantasy Football Top Running Backs to Avoid

Jan 31, 2016; Honolulu, HI, USA; Team Rice quarterback Eli Manning of the New York Giants (10) prepares to handoff the ball to running back Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings (28) over the 2016 Pro Bowl logo at Aloha Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /

Fantasy Football: Top Running Backs to Avoid

Every single year, top running backs who are routinely drafted within the first two rounds of your fantasy football draft disappoint. Likewise, guys drafted in later rounds emerge as stars who are seemingly top targets in following years to come. That’s what makes football, and particularly fantasy football, so fun to partake in; it’s unpredictable, and that’s why anyone can win.

I want to look at three running backs whose average draft position (ADP) is in the first two rounds according to Fantasy Football Calculators’ (FFC) standard-league, 10-team format projections. These are three appealing names who you should avoid in your draft this year based on their ADP.

Next: Overvalued at the top?

Jan 3, 2016; Green Bay, WI, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) tries to run past Green Bay Packers safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (21) in the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /

1. Adrian Peterson

Peterson has been an absolute monster since entering the league in 2007. He’s dominated in pretty much every single season, and he’s been a consensus no. 1 pick at the running back position for the better half of his long career. His ADP is sixth overall this year, and he’s the third running back off the board according to FFC. But is he really worth your sixth-overall pick?

Peterson is coming off another dominant season in which he rushed for nearly 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns. Turning 31, it’s tough to imagine Peterson can duplicate such a monster season while avoiding injury at his age. Even if you think he can duplicate such numbers, you’re paying a high price for that risk. Taking him with your sixth-overall pick means you’re passing on elite, emerging stars like DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller and Ezekiel Elliott. I tend to lean toward the younger and emerging stars, and maybe these numbers will sway you to do the same.

Last year, Peterson only played in 23 percent of third-down snaps. His backups Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon accounted for over 75 percent of such snaps, and it’s a safer bet that those numbers will duplicate rather than the bet of Peterson’s numbers looking the same from last season. The Vikings are also turning into Teddy Bridgewater‘s team. He likes to work out of the shotgun, which historically does not fare well for Peterson, who averaged just 1.6 yards per attempt out of the shotgun last season.

Peterson is and always will be a stud. He’s a legendary, first-ballot Hall-Of-Fame running back; the best we have seen in the 21st century. But is he worth your sixth overall pick this year? I don’t think so, and you should consider him with caution that early in your fantasy league.

Next: Avoid in Atlanta

Aug 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) takes a snap from quarterback Matt Schaub (8) against the Washington Redskins in the first quarter at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports /

2. Devonta Freeman

Freeman was one of those guys last year drafted in later rounds who put up first-round production. Freeman had a monster year, totalling over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns. Some may think he’s actually undervalued considering his second-round ADP, but you should still draft the third-year back out of Atlanta with caution.

Freeman became Atlanta’s every-down back when Stephen Jackson left and rookie Tevin Coleman suffered an injury that sidelined him for most of the season. Even though Coleman later returned and Freeman still remained their every-down back, that doesn’t mean Atlanta’s staff forgot about the guy they used their 2015 73rd-overall draft pick on.

Freeman saw 265 rushing attempts and 73 receiving targets last year, but both numbers could see a decrease this season as Freeman seemed to run out of gas toward the end of the 2015 season. Falcons’ running backs coach Bobby Turner said they want to decrease that workload and get Tevin Coleman involved, which is probably the main reason Freeman’s ADP is in the later-half of round two.

I think Freeman can be a good player, but he’s not going to put up 16 touchdowns again, and he likely won’t see 337 targets again. In a day where running backs are replaced frequently, it won’t surprise many if Freeman goes down and Coleman has success and takes over as the team’s primary back. It won’t even surprise me if we see Freeman handling 60 percent of the snaps with Coleman getting 40 percent. Either way, it’s not a good bet to bank on Freeman duplicating last year’s numbers. Draft him with caution in your second round.

Next: Has Jamaal Charles Lost a Step?

Oct 4, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackle Pat Sims (92) tackles Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) in the second half at Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati defeated Kansas City 36-21. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports /

3. Jamaal Charles

I’m a big Charles fan. He’s been one of the most exciting running backs in the league since bursting on to the scene in his second season in 2009. But coming off major knee surgery for the second time, is he really worth your mid second-round pick this year?