The New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers make for a fascinating case study.
In life, reputation is everything. Reality so often becomes what the perception has been, fair or not. In the case of the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers, this couldn’t be more accurate.
New England is going into the season without outside linebackers Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. Jones was dealt in the offseason to the Arizona Cardinals for a second-round pick and Jonathan Cooper. Ninkovich was injured earlier this month and will miss roughly the first month of the season.
Of course, the Patriots will also be without All-Pro quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the slate. Brady, serving his DeflateGate suspension, will cede the duties to Jimmy Garoppolo. The former Eastern Illinois standout is a fourth-year quarterback who has never taken a meaningful snap.
Carolina is coming off a 15-1 season that saw it reach the Super Bowl for the second time in franchise history. The Panthers have the reigning Most Valuable Player in Cam Newton, who scored 45 touchdowns in 2015. They are also welcoming back a top-notch defense sans corner Josh Norman, who left for the Washington Redskins in free agency.
The offense will get a boost with the return of receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL. Benjamin is the best weapon Newton can utilize by a longshot, and should help bolster a passing game in dire need of a playmaker.
Despite all the issues, most believe the Patriots are a championship contender. Despite all the positives, nobody is picking the Panthers to reach Super Bowl LI.
So what is the story? Perception based on reputation.
New England has been a juggernaut with four Super Bowl titles since Brady became the starting quarterback in 2001. The Patriots have the best coach in football with Bill Belichick on the sidelines, and a legacy of winning. Since 2001, New England has failed to win the AFC East twice.
Carolina has only enjoyed two winning seasons under Newton, who was taken with the first-overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. While Newton is a great player, many are waiting to pounce on him if things take a downturn. Quietly, there are legions who believe Newton is overrated due to accuracy concerns and leadership issues. If the Panthers struggle early, you will hear plenty about both.
In short, the Patriots are getting the benefit of the doubt. On paper, New England is going to struggle without its two best pass-rushers and future Hall of Fame quarterback. They will get exposed in the secondary and the lack of a running game will be a real Achilles heel.
Carolina should be able to absorb the loss of Norman because of an otherworldly front seven. The Panthers will get significant pressure all season thanks to Kawaan Short, Charles Johnson, Star Lotulelei and rookie Vernon Butler. They have fewer holes than the Patriots, but the lack of jewelry of their collective fingers speaks volumes in the eyes of pundits always aiming to be right.
Both are championship contenders, but only one is treated as such.
Film study
Matthew Stafford is a very good quarterback. He’s not great, but Stafford can win games and with a good team around him, can do plenty of damage.
Since 2011, Stafford has started every game for the Detroit Lions and thrown for more than 4,200 yards each season. The quarterback has also tossed 144 touchdowns against 77 interceptions. With Marvin Jones coming over in free agency to match with Golden Tate, the Lions have a pair of playmakers for Stafford to enjoy.
However, Stafford is losing the league’s largest security blanket in Calvin Johnson. Johnson, 30, decided to retire as the franchise leader in all significant receiving categories, leaving a Black Hole in the Detroit offense.
Should the Lions rebound from a miserable 2015 campaign that saw them finish last in the NFC North, Stafford will need to step up more than ever.
Week 3: Denver at Detroit
This is a 1st and 10 from the DET 20-yard line. Denver is leading 7-0 in the latter stages of the second quarter on Sunday Night Football.
On this play, the Lions have Calvin Johnson lined up wide left with Golden Tate going in motion, sitting down in the right slot. Tight end Eric Ebron is lined up next to the right tackle and will release on the snap. Running back Joique Bell stays in to block the blitzing Brandon Marshall. This play is calling four four verticals.
Denver is in its nickel defense. The Broncos are playing off-man coverage with Darian Stewart as the Cover 1 safety. Danny Trevathan (No. 59) will drop into man coverage on Eric Ebron, who is releasing from the right side of the line. DeMarcus Ware (No. 94) is dropping into zone coverage underneath of Johnson’s route.
Stafford has nowhere to go. Denver has played perfect coverage and is beginning to get good pressure after a few seconds with Von Miller winning the right edge. Stafford simply needs to escape the rush and run or more likely, throw the ball away. He does neither.
This ball should be intercepted. Aqib Talib has perfect position to nab the throw. The only saving grace for Detroit is Johnson’s incomparable talents. Look at the body positions of Talib and Johnson, and explain how this ball is caught by the man wearing light blue.
Point being, Stafford can’t make these throws. This is always always a turnover on your side of the field in a game that is going to be won with defense. It’s a rookie mistake by a veteran quarterback, who simply got bailed out.
Week 6: Chicago at Detroit
It’s 3rd and 8 from the CHI 20-yard line. Detroit is in “11” personnel with Calvin Johnson split right and Lance Moore in the slot. Golden Tate is lined up wide left. Tate and Johnson both run fly patterns while Moore runs the stick and nod to the post.
Chicago is playing man coverage with traditional Cover 2 principles over the top.
On the snap, Chicago brings four and drops everyone else into man coverage (with the two safeties playing zone). The outside corners have Johnson and Tate locked up with help from the aforementioned safeties. However, the safeties have widened considerably, leaving a huge open space in the middle of the field.
Stafford is getting ready to unload. He sees the slot corner with his hips facing the sideline, and knows the double move is set up for success. This is a good read by Stafford, who understands the principles he’s looking at.
It’s not an easy throw for Stafford, who has to place the ball ahead of Moore perfectly. Bears corner Sherrick McManis had good coverage, but was beaten by a better throw. If the Lions are going to compete this season, Stafford has to do this constantly.
Week 12: Detroit at Green Bay
It’s 1st and 10 from the DET 7-yard line. The Lions are leading 9-3 in the third quarter over the Packers.
Detroit is once again in 11 personnel with Moore in the slot. Johnson is split wide left and Tate wide right. The Packers appear to be in Cover 2 with man principles, but our next picture shows this is a disguise.
Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers is rushing for but attempts to confuse Stafford with the shift in the back seven. The Packers drop both corners and a safety into a Cover 3, with four other defenders sinking into shallow zones, breaking the field into fourths.
To succeed on this play, Detroit needs two things. Stafford needs to recognize the defense and the receivers need to understand the defense is zone instead of man. With that knowledge, they need to sit in the dead spots of the zone.
Moore is coming open between the coverage layers. Stafford, despite being under heavy pressure, has a clean lane to Moore and unloads the throw. The result is a 15-yard gain and a first down.
This play showcases that Stafford has the mental acumen to play at an elite level. The first play we broke down shows his inconsistency on that point. If he can limit his mistakes (mostly caused by believing his strong arm can outthrow coverage), Stafford could finally take the next step.
Power rankings
Top 12 quarterbacks in Super Bowl era to not win title (retired)
1. Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins
2. Warren Moon, Houston Oilers
3. Jim Kelly, Buffalo Bills
4. Dan Fouts, San Diego Chargers
5. Frank Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings
5. Boomer Esiason, Cincinnati Bengals
7. Bernie Kosar, Cleveland Browns
8. Ken Anderson, Cincinnati Bengals
9. Rich Gannon, Oakland Raiders
10. Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans
11. John Brodie, San Francisco 49ers
12. Bert Jones, Baltimore Colts
Quotable
"“We did some really good things offensively. We have some things to learn from. I’m very confident we’ll be better next week.”– Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler on the debut with his new team"
Osweiler had all eyes on him Sunday afternoon at Levi’s Stadium against the San Francisco 49ers, and he was disappointing. Anybody with even a slightly trained eye could tell Osweiler was tentative in moving through his reads. He also locked onto receivers and continuously threw short of the first-down marker. Overall, Osweiler completed 4-of-7 throws for 27 yards.
It’s only the first game, but it shows that Osweiler has miles to go before fully grasping this offense. Houston runs a completely different scheme than the one he played under Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak. Osweiler may prove to be a terrific signing, but he needs ample seasoning.
Random stat
In 90 combined seasons, the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have amassed only 22 playoff appearances. The Baltimore Ravens already have 10 postseason trips in 20 seasons.
Info learned this week
1. Did Tyrod Taylor get paid?
After it was announced that Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor got paid $92 million over the next six seasons, analysts were scrambling to write how another signal-caller got a massive haul.
In reality, Taylor received a one-year deal in 2016 worth $7.9 million. Next year, his cap hit would jump to $15.9 million while it only costs Buffalo $2.8 million to cut him.
Now, if Taylor plays great and the Bills make the playoffs for the first time since 1999, paying him the aforementioned salary is a good deal. But should Buffalo falter, cutting him is an easy move.
This was a smart move by the organization. Taylor has to play well to earn the remainder of his deal beyond this season. If he does, the salary is palatable and should he regress, there is bvery little dead cap as a result.
2. Joey Bosa is not showing up
When training camp started for the San Diego Chagrers, everyone assumed rookie defensive end Joey Bosa would show sooner rather than later. Those people were mistaken.
Bosa, the third-overall pick in this year’s draft, is still not in camp. He remains in a stalemate with general manager Tom Telesco over offset language in his deal, something that went from minor issue to massive stumbling block.
If Bosa doesn’t report within the next week or so, it is difficult seeing him as a contributor to San Diego in any meaningful way this season. For a team desperately trying to foster goodwill with its fan base and looking for a few wins in the process, this is a mess or epic proportions.
3. Eagles steal Dorial Green-Beckham
In a stunning move on Tuesday morning, the Tennessee Titans shipped receiver Dorial Green-Beckham to the Philadelphia Eagles for reserve tackle Dennis Kelly, per multiple outlets.
Green-Beckham was drafted in the second round of the 2015 NFL Draft and impressed as a rookie, catching 32 passes for 549 yards and four scores. Still, the Titans were ready to move on from Green-Beckham, perhaps for reasons beyond his production.
Philadelphia gave up little in Kelly to get a playmaker in Green-Beckham, but the risk is still there. The Eagles have almost no depth at tackle with Jason Peters battling through injuries and Lane Johnson staring at a 10-game suspension for alleged PED use. With an injury-prone quarterback like Sam Bradford under center, Philadelphia is taking a legitimate gamble.
Ultimately, the Titans are moving on from a talented, mercurial player and the Eagles are hoping to cash in on untapped potential.
4. Saints losing Rankins for spell
The New Orleans Saints are trying to rebuild the worst defense in football, but they took a significant step back this week. According to multiple reports, first-round pick Sheldon Rankins broke his fibula in a goal-line drill, and will miss two months.
The hulking defensive tackle was supposed to be an anchor this season on Dennis Allen’s crew, but he will likely miss at least September. Without him, the Saints will struggle to get interior pressure or stuff the run, two things that were constant problems last year.
Without a vastly improved defense, the Saints are in deep trouble.
5. Goodell demanding PED interviews
On Monday, word came down that the NFL is demanding four players to interview with commissioner Roger Goodell in connection to an Al Jazeera claiming they took PEDs, per NFL.com. Clay Matthews Jr., and Julius Peppers of the Green Bay Packers are on the list, along with Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker James Harrison. Free agent Mike Neal is also on the list.
Should the players decline to interview y or before Aug. 25, they will reportedly be suspended for 10 games. While the players may not like the ruling and for good reason, they can’t do much about it.
According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Goodell wields ultimate power in these situations, something he most certainly won’t after the next CBA negotiation in 2020. This is something to monitor as it could have dire consequences on two teams with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
Asylum mailbag
With question marks about the timeline for the return of Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, coupled with the departure of Sean Smith and Eric Berry’s hold out, do you expect Bob Sutton to change his defensive scheme significantly? Or do you think he can effectively plug in Dee Ford and Daniel Sorensen despite their poor showing the past two years? – Shyza
MV: I believe Berry will be back in ample time along with Hali, so those two don’t concern me. For the Chiefs, the major issue is how long Justin Houston is out. If it’s more than a PUP visit (six weeks) it becomes an ordeal.
I expect Sutton to be creative with his blitzes. Look for Ron Parker, the franchise leader in sacks for a defensive back, to come early and often. Sorensen has looked good in camp, so there’s hope with him as a third safety. The cornerbacks are a bigger concern outside of Marcus Peters. Phillip Gaines has been slow in recovering from a torn ACL and everyone else is either a rookie or with little experience. The Chiefs must find ways to shade their safeties that way while getting pressure with blitzes from the inside linebackers.
Let’s talk NFC Wild Card possibilites. Do you think that we’ll have a similar situation as last year, where the Wild Card is basically a fight between the losers of the Vikings/Packers and Cardinals/Seahawks division wars ? – Lord Harry
MV: I would lean heavily that way. I don’t see any NFC South or East team earning a wild card berth. The four teams you mentioned are simply too good to miss the playoffs without major injuries. All of them could and should win 11 games or more.
Now, if injuries happen or one of them massively underwhelms, look at the East before the South. The New York Giants spent a ton of money in the offseason to fix the defense. Did general manager Jerry Reese do enough? In Dallas, are the Cowboys going to make up for that porous defense with an elite offense? The same could be said to a lesser degree about the Washington Redskins. Of course, one will win in the division, thinning the Wild Card herd.
History lesson of the week
Paul Brown’s legacy is deeply entrenched for both the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. Cleveland began operations in 1946 in the All-America Football Conference with Brown as head coach before merging into the NFL in 1950. Brown stayed with the organization until owner Art Modell fired him prior to the 1963 season.
Brown then started the Bengals in the American Football League, which would merge into the NFL in 1970. The colors of both teams are orange and white, something that was not a coincidence. Currently, Paul’s son, Mike, owns the Bengals.He named their new venue Paul Brown Stadium in honor of his late father in 2000.
Parting shot
The preseason should never be treated as a barometer for the regular season, but there were some stark performances in Week 1.
The Chicago Bears couldn’t have looked worse against the Denver Broncos. Denver has an elite defense, but Chicago was rancid throughout the entire game, getting shutout, 22-0. Chicago allowed seven sacks and could have allowed twice that.
It may also be an ominous sign that on the first play of the new Los Angeles Rams, the kickoff was returned for a touchdown … against them. The Dallas Cowboys ran roughshod over Los Angeles without Tony Romo or Ezekiel Elliott in the game, a bad sign for a team relying on its defense.
On a positive note, the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars looked crisp against one another. Jacksonville is expected to compete for a division title for the first time this decade while New York hopes to build off a 10-wion season in 2015. Both appeared poised to do so.
Of course, it is the preseason, and all of that can change in a week.