FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for August 18

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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Thursday’s MLB action kicks off at 1:10PM EST with a 2 game early slate and an additional 9 games on the main slate which begins at 7:05PM EST.

I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Time Period	Score	Pitcher Salary	Pitcher %	Hitter %	Hitter $/Player	Value
Season	256.3	$ 8,622	25%	75%	$ 3,297	7.32
5 Day	272.0	$ 8,300	24%	76%	$ 3,338	7.77
Prev Day	312.6	$ 10,800	31%	69%	$ 3,025	8.93

Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Over the last month, can you name the pitcher on Thursday’s slate averaging the most points per game? Is it Jacob deGrom, Jose Fernandez, Jake Arrieta or Madison Bumgarner?

Even with all these aces going on Thursday, the honor for most points per game goes to Houston Astros SP Joe Musgrove ($6,500).

Musgrove is averaging 40.3 points per game which exceeds 6x value at this bargain basement price point. Musgrove has an impressive 31% strikeout rate, striking out 21 batters in only 18 IP.

Musgrove gets a challenging match-up against the Orioles on Thursday but keep in mind that Musgroves recent performances have come against similarly dangerous lineups in Toronto and Texas.

On a night/day with so many aces, it may seem odd to pivot away from the top dollar starters but my logic here is simple. Jose Fernandez has pitched to a 3.93 ERA on the road this season and Jacob deGrom faces off against Madison Bumgarner which puts the win up for grabs here.

Locking in Musgrove allows you to spend $3,500 per hitter and is an interesting differentiation strategy when looking to build your roster on Thursday!

Musgrove is projected to score 32.31 points per FantasyPros which is the top point per dollar play of any SP on the slate and makes for a top GPP play!

Next: Top Hitting Options

Looking over the main slate, we have no “stand out” offensive games to target but we do have 4 offenses projected to score 4.5+ runs which makes this a great spot to target one off hitters or mini-stacks to spread across your lineups.

Bryce Harper ($4,000) & Daniel Murphy ($4,000): Stacking the top two Nationals bats may be a great contrarian play as they move away from Coors Field and with so many looking to pay up for pitchers we could see these two substantially under-owned.

Twins bats versus RHP Dillon Gee: One of the top projected scoring teams on the main slate, the Twins get a favorable match-up against Dillon Gee and his 4.5 SIERA. With a mediocre 16% K rate and 7% walk rate, we can expect a lot of activity on the base paths which should lead to plenty of fantasy points for the Twins.

Max Kepler ($3,400) is one of the top plays from this game and is one of the highest value plays in the OF per the projection system at FantasyPros.

Next: Top FanDuel Lineup

Below you will find my initial lineup for Thursday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.

Pitcher: Joe Musgrove ($6,500)

More from FanSided

Catcher: Juan Centeno ($2,800)

First Base: Mike Napoli ($3,800) The Indians RHB versus Carlos Rodon is another spot to attack as Rodon has surrendered a .300 average to opposing RHB batters and 16 home runs

Second Base: Daniel Murphy ($4,000)

Third Base: Jorge Polanco ($2,800)

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor ($3,500)

Outfield: Max Kepler ($3,400)

Outfield: Bryce Harper ($4,000)

Outfield: Mike Trout ($4,200) Another top dollar bat that we can easily afford by dropping down to Musgrove as our SP!

Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level

Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!