DraftKings Fantasy Golf: The Barclays

DraftKings Fantasy Golf: The Barclays

This weeks PGA tournament features The Barclays, at Bethpage Black. The Barclays is the first leg of the Fed Ex Cup tournament, in which the top players will compete in four events of a playoff style format.

Bethpage Black will host this years Barclays and should provide a fair test to the best players in the world. The black course plays at shade over 7400 yards, at a par 71, with bent grass greens. Previous U.S. Opens have been held played here, but the course has changed some since then and other than 2012, we don’t have much of a course history to work with. As always, the Black course will feature extremely small green and very thick rough. Guys that can scramble and have distance on their approach shots should see success.

This week will be meshing of sorts, between driving distance and driving accuracy. You’ll want golfers that can stay in the fairway, but at the same time, given the narrow fairways, you’ll want to target bombers that can set up and execute proper second shots.

With a shorten field, the cut percentage will obviously be higher than normal. This is more conducive to a “studs and duds” type lineup. I’ll be taking more shots than normal on flyers, as they now have a higher probability of at least making the cut. It looks as if most the value is in players priced closer to the bottom and therefore makes this lineup strategy applicable even in cash games.

Key Metrics

1. Strokes gained Tee to Green (SG: T to G) – A measurement of the golfers efficiency, exuding putting, in comparison with the field.
2. Driving distance – Driving distance will play a factor this week, but should be taken in context with other metrics.
3. Greens in Regulation (GIR) – This represents the percentage of holes in which a golfer reaches the green in at least two strokes less than par.
4. Scrambling –  This is the percentage of holes is which a golfer avoids scoring bogey or worse after failing to hit the green in regulation.
5. Recent form – This goes for any data, but specifically looking at top ten finishes and missed cuts, over the past five to eight weeks.

Next: Top Tier

Top Tier

*Top, Mid, and Bottom Tiers are categories of pricing*

Day ($12,400), Stenson ($11,700), Johnson ($11,900) vs. Mcilroy ($11,600), Spieth (11,000)

I broke these players into a category of their own, cause quite frankly, its hard to build a case for or against any of the top players. The first three all obviously have a legitimate shot to win this week, but I think they’re the top targets if you’re looking for safety. If you end up building a studs and duds lineup in cash games, I think Day, Stenson, and DJ, are much safer options than Mcilroy and Spieth. Top players of this group, gun to head, I’d lean Stenson ever so slightly.

Rory has been my achilles heel all year-long. He’s burned me more times than I can remember, but that being said he can have sub par recent form and still go out and win this tournament. I like Rory more in high stakes contest, where his ownership will be less, but I’ll have very minimal exposure to him this week. Spieth on the other hand is a guy who I’ve been right when fading quite often, but I’m weary of completely fading him this week. As I mentioned I think this course is primarily a second shot course, which fits perfectly with Spieths exceptional iron game. Spieths scrambling and putting could be deadly. I’d never consider him in cash, but will have some exposure in deeper tournaments.

Brooks Koepka ($10,100)

Plan on “Brooks was here” being inscribed somewhere in the clubhouse of Bethpage this weekend. I love Brooks in this spot. He’s been terrific after his injury break, were he finished 9th in the Travelers and 4th at the PGA Championship. His pricing falls in a category where I think most will either spend up or spend down, helping his ownership levels.

Rickie Fowler ($9300)

(I’m feeling sick just typing his name). If you’ve played DFS golf at all this year, I’m sure you’ve experienced a similar feeling when rostering Rickie. He’s struggled mightily this year but maybe the start of the Fed Ex cup and being on the fringe of the Ryder cup provide the reset that he so desperately needs. Rickie checks most of the boxes for me. He’s a more balanced golfer that has a good GIR and DD score. I would never put Rickie in my core, but he’ll find his way into a few of my tournament teams.

Next: Mid Tier

Mid Tier

Bubba Watson ($9100)

If you want to go with a bomber this week, Bubba is your guy. Bubba is coming off a good showing at the Olympics, where he finished in 8th place. He’s also a guy in a similar boat as Rickie, on the fringe of the Ryder Cup team. Bubba hasn’t missed a cut since Moses wore short pants, so he has to be in cash game consideration.

Emiliano Grillo ($8300)

Like Bubba, Grillo is also coming off an impressive Olympic showing and has great recent form. Conversely, Grillo would be your play if you favor DA this week. He’s hit 68.6% of fairways, which ranks him one of the highest on the slate. Grillo could be part of my core players this week.

Zach Johnson ($8100)

Johnson is very cheap considering his talent level and could be interesting in both cash and tournaments. His ability to make the cut in combination with his price provide value.

Jhonattan Vegas ($7400)

Vegas is another deep ball hitter, but not at the expense of accuracy. His balance in these areas will be appealing this week. While his performance at the Olympics was not great, he does have a recent win at the Canadian Open. I don’t think Vegas should be in cash game consideration, but someone who I’ll have as a flyer in tournaments.

Russell Knox ($7300)

Knox is one of my favorite plays this week mainly due to his price. Knox has a GIR of 70% and has hit 67.8% of fairways this year. He also holds a strong scrambling percentage of 59.5%.

Kevin Na ($7300)

Na will most likely end up being the mega chalk this week. He was in contention last week at the Wyndham and in normal Kevin Na fashion, he finished 10th. Given his price and recent form, he’ll be highly owned. I’d like to say he’s an auto lock for cash games, but there are some legitimate concerns that his wife may give birth at some point during the weekend. It’s been reported that his wife is due September 1st and he’ll plan on missing next weeks tournament, but buyer beware.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but its something to monitor and keep in the back of your head.

Never did I think I’d be analyzing and trying to predict the birth of a baby and its potential DFS implications. Unfortunately stats like “C-Section,” “Due Date,” are hard to come by on standard DFS statistical sites…

Next: Bottom Tier

Bottom Tier

Daniel Berger ($6900)

Berger’s price is way too low given his recent performance.  His most notable recent finishes were, 5th at the Travelers in early August, and a win at the St. Jude Classic. Berger is a guy that checks almost all the statistical boxes and has been very consistent in making cuts this year (13 straight). Berger will be part of my core players, but will come at high ownership.

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Billy Horschel ($6700)

Horschel is another guy that is shockingly under priced on DraftKings. Other than missing the cut at the British Open, he hasn’t missed a cut in the last 6 months. I love Horschel as a bargain option.

Jason Dufner ($6600)

Dufner is a very similar play to Billy Ho, he’s a good mesh of DD and DA, way too cheap, and very consistent. If we were to compare the two, I would prefer Dufner, with a better GIR, but both will be great value plays.

Hudson Swafford ($6200)

I might as well keep riding the Swafford train. He hasn’t missed a cut since early May and has been playing solid golf recently. I wouldn’t expect him to take a run at winning this week (14 was his best recent finish ), but at $6,200, he’s a great bet to return value.

Francesco Molinari ($6000)

I feel like I’m on repeat, but again, Molinari is a golfer that is always consistent, makes cuts, and is extremely cheap. Of the cheaper players, I think Molinari is one that has the best shot to contend for a win (2nd at Open de France, 8th at Quicken Loans National, 7th at The Players Championship, 9th at The Arnold Palmer Invitational).

Robert Garrigus ($5700)

Garrigus is one of my favorite plays on the slate, but unfortunately I think everyone else feels the same. Garrigus has been a stud of late with a few top 25 and top 10 finishes. Garrigus is the play if you’re looking for a combination of value and length. He’s fairly inaccurate, but can smack the ball. You’ll see a lot of Garrigus in my lineups.

Others I’ll Have Exposure To: Ryan Palmer (in tournaments only), Adam Scott,  Jason Kokrak, Phil Mickelson, Charl Schwartzel, Bill Haas, Gary Woodland, Kevin Kisner, Roberto Castro

Fades: Justin Rose, Matt Kuchar, Si Woo Kim