Rob Gronkowski's Era of Dominance is coming to an End

Jan 24, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) catches a touchdown pass against Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr. (25) in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Rob Gronkowski has been the dominant fantasy football tight end of recent years, however it appears his era of dominance could be coming to an end. The positional advantage that at one time justified drafting Gronkowski in the first round is no longer as valid of an argument as it once was. Although this may come as a shock to many, this season could be the year that Gronkowski does not finish as the number one tight end. A multitude of factors have influenced my opinion on Gronkowski. A few major factors include the Tom Brady suspension, emergence of other tight ends, and the high draft pick that must be spent to draft this tight end. The combination of all of these factors make Gronkowski not as valuable as he once was.

Sacrificing an Early Pick is not worth it for Rob Gronkowski

Players taken in the first round are generally supposed to be the cornerstone of any fantasy team. Currently Rob Gronkowski is being selected ninth overall. Players drafting Gronkowski generally site his positional dominance which has been extremely prevalent in recent seasons. This factor is no longer enough to spend a first round pick on Gronkowski. The difference between Gronkowski and other top five tight ends (in PPR leagues) is less than 2.0 points per game. Greg Olsen who finished as the fifth position rank tight end averaged 13.8 points per game. Gronkowski averaged 15.5 per game putting the gap at only 1.7 points per game. The question fantasy owners must now ask themselves is quite simple: is Gronkowski actually much better than other tight ends? The answer is no. Four other tight ends (Reed, Walker, Barnidge, and Olsen) were all within 1.7 points per game of Gronkowski.

Sacrificing a Fantasy Cornerstone

Selecting him in the first round sacrifices off a cornerstone at another position. Gronkowski obviously has had a stranglehold on the tight end position but there are plenty other viable options to select later in drafts. Jordan Reed is currently being selected in the middle of the third and is the largest threat to take over as the top tight end. Greg Olsen is being drafted shortly after and has had some big seasons in the past. Delanie Walker who finished second last season among fantasy tight ends (PPR) also poses a threat to end Gronkowski’s era of dominance. Walker is currently being drafted in the middle of the fifth round. All of these players can have great fantasy seasons and come at a much lower price than Gronkowski.

Next: Impact of Brady's Suspension

Jul 28, 2016; Foxboro, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) and New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) during training camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports /

Brady and Edelman Effect

Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown one career touchdown pass in the NFL. With Tom Brady missing for four games, Garoppolo will be forced to start for the Patriots. Garoppolo is no Tom Brady (obviously). When Brady returns in week 5 he may not be 100% prepared for the season. Brady is entering as a 39-year-old, an age when many quarterbacks see a decline in their performance. Additionally with Julian Edelman returning from injury, Gronkowski will see a small decline in his targets. It is important to keep in mind that Edelman missed seven games last season and certainly will see plenty of targets this season pending injury. Gronkowski saw extra targets last season with Edelman out and will likely see his total targets decline with Edelman on the field.

Emergence of Reed

It goes without saying that Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, and Delanie Walker all had magnificent fantasy seasons last year. None of these three were that far behind when it comes to points and all cost significantly less. Jordan Reed specifically has been one of the most dominant tight ends recently and can certainly challenge Gronkowski for the top tight end title. Reed does not have a stellar injury history however and could be considered a much larger risk than Gronkowski. If Reed stays healthy for the entire season he could very easily take over Gronkowski.

Olsen’s Consistency

Greg Olsen is another option to select instead. Olsen has a lower upside than Reed but has a much lower chance of injury. Olsen has not had any major injuries since 2013 and certainly has a much lower chance of injury. However Olsen is less likely to have a breakout season. With Kelvin Benjamin back it would not surprise me to see his targets take a slight slide. Olsen is a consistent tight end who will likely give fantasy players a consistent starter each week.

Delanie Walker?

Delanie Walker put up new career highs in yards, receptions, and tied a career high in touchdowns last season. Many fantasy players are confused on where to draft Walker due to his surge last season. This season Walker will likely finish somewhere in between his 2014 and 2015 stats. That would equate out to roughly 990 yards, five touchdowns, and 80 receptions. This would be a respectable season for any fantasy tight end and considering Walkers ADP currently being 55.2.

Overall Rob Gronkowski is not worth the high draft pick in my opinion. Better options at the tight end position can be selected later in the draft. The difference between Gronkowski and other tight ends does not appear to be as large of a gap as it once was. In my opinion Gronkowski is still a great NFL player but I do not believe he is still the dominant force at the tight end position.

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Rob Gronkowski: Era of Dominance Coming to an End… Rapidly

By Perry Lowe | Aug 25, 2016