College Football: ESPN College Pick Em Picks Week 1

Nov 21, 2015; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Trevor Knight (9) passes the ball against the TCU Horned Frogs during the fourth quarter at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports /

ESPN College Pick Em Picks Week 1

For us college football fans, it feels like Winter lasts until August. At least we have baseball to tide us over. Now, the college football season is just hours away. Of course, we have to wait another six days after the official “start” of the season for the next game. Everyone has a Cub-like optimism heading into the season. I do as well. Here are the ESPN College Pick Em Picks for Week 1!

Last year I would up with 487 points playing the confidence points version of Pick Em. My picks will be for that version. If you wish to play along, you can join this group for Fantasy CPR readers.

More from College Football Odds

Week 1 is often the hardest week to pick of the year. This year will be no different with several marquee out of conference games. The confidence points are beside my selections. This year, I am going to go from least confident (1) to most (10), you know, to build the dramatic effect.

(1): Texas A&M over UCLA

Yes, I realize who Texas A&M’s quarterback is. Believe me, I know him better than most. As an Oklahoma fan, I saw just how great Trevor Knight can be (the Sugar Bowl against Alabama) and how bad he can be (every other game). The issue here is with what UCLA lost. They only have four returning starters on offense. One of those is QB Josh Rosen, but RB Paul Perkins and Swiss Army Knife Myles Jack will now play on Sunday’s. Knight has been working with this A&M unit for over a year now. They have a better shot at coming out swinging than the Bruins do, but you can see just how confident I am in this.

(2): West Virginia over Missouri:

The Mountaineers are much better on offense than Missouri. Missouri’s D was pretty good last year, but their offense was far from it. Don’t expect that to change overnight. Skyler Howard returns for West Virgnia, and he brings with it his two best receivers. Sure, they lost Wendell Smallwood, but Rushel Shell had nearly half of the carries per game by the end of the year. Missouri had issues with good offenses last year. If they didn’t shore that up, this could get ugly.

(3): Arizona over BYU:

I am still on the fence about this one. Both teams have electric quarterbacks, but how much does BYU’s Taysom Hill have left after back-to-back season ending surgeries? Anu Solomon is a much safer, and more healthy, bet. BYU likely has the better defense, but Arizona has far more weapons on offense.

Next: Games 4-8

Dec 31, 2015; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Samaje Perine (32) reacts with offensive tackle Orlando Brown (78) after scoring a touchdown against the Clemson Tigers in the first quarter of the 2015 CFP Semifinal at the Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports /

(4): Oklahoma over Houston:

Yeah, I know. What kind of fan am I. I am a realistic one. I realize that the Oklahoma defense that was exposed in the Orange Bowl wont be much, if any, better. Vegas has the Sooners as a double digit favorite right now. They shouldn’t be. Houston has the firepower to make this very interesting, and when was the last time Oklahoma opened on the road? I remember it well. It was 2009 in Jerry World, and Oklahoma lost Sam Bradford in the second quarter, and proceeded to lose the game to BYU. The difference in this game will be Samaje Perine, so long as Oklahoma doesn’t forget he is in the backfield.

(5): Georgia over North Carolina:

Optimism is high in Georgia with the arrival of Kirby Smart, the longtime Alabama coordinator. The quarterback situation is still unsettled, but North Carolina will be without Marquise Williams, who was their most explosive player for each of the last two years. Mitch Trubisky is much more of an unknown than Grayson Lambert or even freshman Jacob Eason. Sony Michel and Nick Chubb could carry this team to a SEC East title regardless of quarterback play.

(6): Alabama over USC:

I believe this game will be closer than most people think, mostly because of the uncertainty at quarterback for the Tide. The loss of Derrick Henry hurts too, but as we have seen from Alabama over the last decade or so, they just reload. There is no such thing as rebuilding in Tuscaloosa when it comes to the football team. I still think that USC has the talent to keep this close, but likely not within one score.

(7): Clemson over Auburn:

This is only a marquee matchup on ESPN. They have to find some way to hype this game, because it reeks of a blowout. Auburn being at home is likely the only thing that keeps this from being a complete embarrassment. The voters have already handed the Heisman Trophy to DeShaun Watson (sorry Leonard Fournette), so just sit back and watch the ride.

(8): LSU over Wisconsin:

Just how big of a mismatch is this? I don’t even see Wisconsin keeping it close. Leonard Fournette is the best player in the country. He is the most valuable to his team, and it is a damn shame that a running back can’t win the Heisman anymore, because Fournette deserves it. Fortunately for the Badgers, they lose turnover machine/QB Joel Stave, but they still don’t have enough on defense to stop Fournette.

Next: Who Are The Top 2?

Nov 27, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Washington Huskies fullback Myles Gaskin (9) rushes the ball in the third quarter against the Washington State Cougars at Husky Stadium. Washington beat Washington State 45-10. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports /

(9): Washington over Rutgers:

Oh, Rutgers was nothing short of terrible last year. They only beat Kansas, who is easily the worst power five team, by 13 points at home. That should have counted as a loss. This wont be much more than an extra practice for Washington. Myles Gaskin is going to be a lot of fun to watch this year. Get the Pac 12 Network. You want to watch this guy play. He is about as electric as they come at the college level. Rutgers will find that out the hard way.

(10): Michigan over Hawaii:

Really? They can’t find a better game than this? How about Ole Miss/Florida State? The only thing Hawaii has going for it is that they will be the worst team in college (at least record-wise) coming into the game. This is also a glorified scrimmage for Michigan. Then again, Appalachian State was supposed to be just that in 2007……

Next: Which 30 September Call Ups Can Help Your Fantasy Team?

As some of you know, I picked every college football game against the spread last year, as I have for the past several years. I went 400-366 last year, and am aiming for a 55% success rate this year. Last year I also implemented a points system to add some weight to my picks because no one bets on every game. They also don’t be the same amount on every game. The points system is also back this year, and I have 123 in the bank from last year! Now for the first pick of the season, and a sneak peek for all of you that will follow along this year:

California(-20.5) vs. Hawaii at Sydney, Australia (4): The time change shouldn’t affect these guys much. After all, it will be like a 7pm kick for Cal. Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb will look to continue the line of great Cal quarterbacks against a porous Hawaii defense. Even if Cal has some growing pains in this one, it still wont be close. Give me Cal.

Stay tuned for the rest of my week one picks, and follow along all season long!