With aging stars and injuries creeping up, the Baltimore Ravens are facing extinction.
Nothing lasts forever. In the National Football League, most entities don’t remain for more than a few years at a high level before receding into the darkness.
The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the few exceptions. Since drafted quarterback Joe Flacco and hiring head coach John Harbaugh in 2008, Baltimore has only missed the playoffs twice and suffered just one losing season. The total regular-season record is 77-51 in a sport designed to drag down winners and propel bottom-feeders through schedule and draft order.
Most impressively, the Ravens are 9-5 in the postseason under Harbaugh, including a 6-5 road mark. Baltimore has as many titles as it does losing campaigns under the current regime.
Now, the Ravens must face a stark reality. Their championship window is slamming shut.
Baltimore enduring a nightmarish season in 2015. The Ravens watched as Terrell Suggs, Steve Smith Sr., Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Dennis Pitta, Breshad Perriman, Jeremy Zuttah and others ended their seasons on the Injured Reserve list. The result was Jimmy Clausen and Ryan Mallett starting games in November and December for a team with no hope.
Going into this season, Baltimore is healthier but again dealing with concerns. Pitta sustained a broken finger while fighting with a teammate. At the beginning of training camp, third-round pick Bronson Kaufusi broke his ankle and will miss all of 2016. While Suggs and Smith are both off the PUP list and practicing, there are ample concerns. Suggs is attempting to return from a second torn Achilles tendon at 33 years old. Smith, 37, is also coming off a torn Achilles.
While reports have been glowing about Flacco, he’s also worth watching. The 31-year-old had an ugly knee injury against the St. Louis Rams, tearing both his ACL and MCL. Less than a full year removed from that moment, how does he respond with players coming after him both high and low?
Baltimore has enough uncertainty to last a lifetime.
With the uncertainty comes desperation. The Ravens are aging, and general manager Ozzie Newsome knows it. Newsome, a Hall of Famer, understands that his roster is both tenuous and risky. If everything goes right, Harbaugh and Flacco could be back in the postseason. If things break down, Baltimore is likely picking in the top dozen teams come the 2017 NFL Draft.
Newsome is aware of Baltimore’s poor salary cap situation. Only four teams have less money available than the 2017 Ravens, who have $7.7 million to spend. Once draft picks are factored in, Baltimore would realistically be around $3 million. For a team with holes on both sides of the ball, it’s not near enough.
The Ravens have to start shedding salary unless they want to continue losing quality players like guard Kelechi Osemele, who left for the Oakland Raiders and $60 million this offseason.
Look for this to be the last campaign for Smith, who is readying for retirement. Forsett is also a goner after 2016, with Baltimore able to save $3 million by releasing him. At 31 years old and injury-plagued, Pitta will also be jettisoned for a $3.3 million savings. Fellow tight end Benjamin Watson will also be out the door for another $3 million in relief. Finally, outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil, 32, will be sent packing with $6 million being snatched back.
It’s a blood-letting with star players and major implications. It’s also something that has to take place. Baltimore is facing a point of critical mass with its aging stars. The only thing worse than getting old in sports is getting old and not winning. The Ravens can’t afford to keep going down this road.
With all that in mind, 2016 is it for this collection. Baltimore needs to make one final run before being taken apart and tinkered with. It’s now or never.
The Ravens face tough prospects even with good health. The secondary is a mess and the pass-rushers are both ancient. Flacco could be 100 percent and still be throwing to a legion of mediocrity outside of Smith, unless you truly believe in Perriman and Kamar Aiken.
Baltimore also must contend with a tough division. The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers both made the postseason last year, and are favorites to be there again. The AFC West could send three teams to the January dance, with the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders all looking strong. Factor in the New England Patriots, and Baltimore could be good and still left on the outside.
It’s time to face the music in Charm City. This group has one year to make magic or be disbanded. Should it come to that, Flacco and Harbaugh will remain the focal points of a rebuild that with the right draft picks and low-key signings could be swift. Still, it would mean a couple of tough years for a city very accustomed to winning divisions and multiple playoff games.
Every team faces its mortality. Baltimore is finally approaching the end of its run with a team that has delivered time and again.