Bengals season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

The Cincinnati Bengals have reached the playoffs under head coach Marvin Lewis in each of the past five seasons. They have yet to advance past the Wild Card round.

Still, for all the rhetorical hand-wringing surrounding Cincinnati’s offseason, it’s mostly white noise. The Bengals still have a very talented roster and a coach who knows how to guide his group through the highs and lows of a regular season. What the Bengals don’t have, and what the team must confront if the current core is to remain intact, is big-game experience.

Cincinnati should have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card game last January. Instead, the team — to say nothing of its long-beleaguered fan base — had to watch Vontaze Burfict, Adam Jones, and Jeremy Hill join knucklehead forces to give us one of the NFL’s all-time postseason meltdowns.

Now, the Bengals are once again seeking vindication and validation, in what stands to be a make-or-break season for Lewis and his crew.

On the plus side, Cincinnati is both young and talented. Few teams boast the backfield caliber of Hill and Giovani Bernard. Hill is the bruiser of the two, and will be looking for a bounce-back season after averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per carry in 2015 (although the 23-year-old did tally 11 touchdowns). Bernard, meanwhile, can beat teams on the outside with his speed and elusiveness, and also brings good hands to the table, having caught 49 passes for 472 yards in 2015.

Despite losing Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency, the Bengals also have elite targets for sixth-year quarterback Andy Dalton, now fully healed from a broken thumb. A.J. Green is the alpha of the pack, after registering 86 catches for 1,296 yards and 10 touchdowns a season ago. Green is the model for consistency and production, having amassed more than 1,000 yards in each of his first five seasons in Cincinnati.

Factor in the recently signed Brandon LaFell and second-round pick Tyler Boyd (out of Pittsburgh), and the Bengals have one of the deeper receiving corps in football. Tight end Tyler Eifert also enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2015, catching 13 touchdowns on 52 receptions.

The main concern for Cincinnati is its secondary. Jones is another year older, while Dre Kirkpatrick has never lived up to the hype of his first-round selection. The Bengals are replacing Leon Hall with rookie William Jackson III, a talented kid but a first-year man nonetheless. Behind them is veteran George Iloka but his longtime partner, Reggie Nelson, left for the Oakland Raiders. In a conference loaded with top quarterbacks and receivers, this could be the Achilles heel in Cincinnati.

The other thorn, of course, is Burfict and his three-game suspension. While the Bengals can survive without him for a short stretch, they’re facing a trio of teams that each won 10-plus games in 2015. There’s also the considerable question mark of how effective Burfict can be when he returns and — more crucial still — whether or not he’s matured since his bonehead heel turn last January.

In short, the time is now for Cincinnati. Should the Bengals fall short of the postseason, or reach the playoffs only to pull their standard one-and-done routine, owner and general manager Mike Brown might be forced into action. Even the big cats only get nine lives, after all, and there’s every possibility that Lewis might finally be down to his last.

Schedule

Week 1 – at New York Jets
Week 2 – at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 3 – Denver Broncos
Week 4 – Miami Dolphins (Thurs.)
Week 5 – at Dallas Cowboys
Week 6 – at New England Patriots
Week 7 – Cleveland Browns
Week 8 – Washington Redskins (London)
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – at New York Giants (Mon.)
Week 11 – Buffalo Bills
Week 12 – at Baltimore Ravens
Week 13 – Philadelphia Eagles
Week 14 – Cleveland Browns
Week 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers (Sun. night)
Week 16 – at Houston Texans (Sat. night)
Week 17 – Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati will be tested early and often through the first six weeks. With four away games on the slate, all of them against teams with legitimate postseason aspirations, the Bengals have to win at home against Denver and Miami, and steal at least one on the road.

The Bengals will be aiming to repeat as AFC North champs, but a 2-4 start or worse could really put them behind the 8-ball. Having lost Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu — and potentially being without Eifert — it’s going to be a challenge for this offense to come together quickly.

Draft class

Round 1 (24) – William Jackson III, CB, Houston
Round 2 (55) – Tyler Boyd, WR, Pittsburgh
Round 3 (87) – Nick Vigil, ILB, Utah State
Round 4 (122) – Andrew Billings, NT, Baylor
Round 5 (161) – Christian Westerman, OG, Arizona State
Round 6 (199) – Cody Core, WR, Ole Miss
Round 7 (245) – Clayton Fejedelem, S, Illinois

Mike Brown did a nice job with his seven picks, getting a steal at the top of the board in Jackson. The Bengals desperately needed a replacement for Leon Hall and Jackson fits the bill, joining a group that includes veterans Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick.

Boyd is another quality selection. Some thought he could sneak into the first round, but Cincinnati managed to snag him at the end of the second. The former Pittsburgh star could slide into the starting lineup opposite A.J. Green sooner than later if Brandon LaFell fails to impress.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Brandon LaFell, WR (1 year, $2.5 million)

Lost

Andre Smith, OT (MIN – 1 year, $4.5 million)
Reggie Nelson, S (OAK – 2 years, $8.5 million)
Mohamed Sanu, WR (ATL – 5 years, $32.5 million)
Marvin Jones, WR (DET – 5 years, $40 million)
Leon Hall, CB (NYG – 1 year, $1.5 million)

X-Factor

Will the real Jeremy Hill please stand up? In his rookie campaign, Hill rushed for 1,124 yards on 5.1 yards per carry and found the end zone nine times. Last year, the former LSU Tiger gained only 794 yards on 3.6 yards per attempt.

Cincinnati doesn’t have the explosive, diverse passing attack of years past, so Hill and Giovani Bernard will be more important than ever. If Hill can’t get more than four years per carry, the Bengals are going to be in a bind.

Bottom Line

As it’s been for the better part of a decade, Cincinnati’s principal goal is to win a game in the postseason. The Bengals lost some significant talent in the offseason, but the roster still has enough weapons to consistently win by double digits. Ultimately, nobody is going to give respect to the team in the Queen City until they exorcise their playoff demons.

If the Bengals can’t get over the proverbial hump, it might be time for Brown to move on from Lewis, who has been trying to reach the Divisional Round since being hired in 2003.