Chiefs season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

After winning their first playoff game in 22 years, the Kansas City Chiefs endured a tumultuous offseason.

In February, head coach Andy Reid revealed that All-Pro outside linebacker Justin Houston underwent surgery for a non-functioning ACL, an injury that has him sidelined 6-12 months from the date of the procedure (Feb. 16).

The Chiefs also dealt with a tampering scandal that cost the team a third-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft along with a sixth-round choice in 2017. Finally, general manager John Dorsey could not come to an agreement on a long-term deal with Eric Berry, who is playing on the franchise tag after holding out for much of the preseason.

All that said, the Chiefs remain one of the strong bets to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LI.

Kansas City was able to retain most of its free agents in the offseason, signing outside linebacker Tamba Hali and inside linebacker Derrick Johnson to three-year deals. Defensive end Jaye Howard was also kept in-house for two years, while Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce received a four-year extension. In addition, Dorsey inked right tackle Mitch Schwartz to a five-year pact, finally giving quarterback Alex Smith some stability on that side of the offensive line.

The offense should be better with the addition of Schwartz and the return of Jamaal Charles, who tore his ACL in Week 5 against the Chicago Bears. Charles is 29 years old but remains one of the best playmakers in the NFL, capable of breaking the game open on any touch. The former University of Texas star has averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in each of his eight seasons and holds the NFL record for yards per carry at 5.5.

However, the big talking point surrounding the Chiefs as legitimate contenders is Smith, a quarterback who might be the most divisive at his position. The 32-year-old has never thrown for 3,500 yards or 24 touchdowns in a season. Yet Smith wins consistently, having posted a 30-16 mark in 46 regular-season starts with Kansas City.

Smith has the best supporting cast of his career in Kelce and receiver Jeremy Maclin. Maclin set a career high with 87 catches in 2015, to go with 1,088 yards and eight touchdowns. Kelce contributed with 875 yards and five touchdowns, earning the 26-year-old his first Pro Bowl berth.

Despite the offensive potential, though, the Chiefs need to be more productive. Last season, Kansas City ranked ninth in scoring offense but an ugly 27th in yardage. For the Chiefs to take the next — and perhaps final — step, Smith needs to find bigger chunk plays.

Even with the departure of corner Sean Smith, the defense remains stout. Houston’s injury hurts the pass rush, and could be the fly in Kansas City’s ointment. Houston is the best at his position along with Von Miller, and how quickly he returns could determine whether the Chiefs are home or away in the AFC playoffs.

With a defense that includes rookie sensation Marcus Peters and a plethora of quality front-seven members in Dontari Poe, Hali, Houston, Johnson, and Howard, the Chiefs have the goods to make a deep run in January. If the offense can hold up its end of the bargain, Kansas City could be in Houston come February.

Schedule

Week 1 – San Diego Chargers
Week 2 – at Houston Texans
Week 3 – New York Jets
Week 4 – at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sun. night)
Week 5 – BYE
Week 6 – at Oakland Raiders
Week 7 – New Orleans Saints
Week 8 – at Indianapolis Colts
Week 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 10 – at Carolina Panthers
Week 11 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 12 – at Denver Broncos
Week 13 – at Atlanta Falcons
Week 14 – Oakland Raiders (Thurs.)
Week 15 – Tennessee Titans
Week 16 – Denver Broncos (Christmas)
Week 17 – at San Diego Chargers

From Week 10-13, the Chiefs have to avoid some pitfalls. Going to Carolina will be the toughest game on the schedule (if 2015 was any indication), which is thankfully followed by a very winnable game against Tampa Bay. However, the next two contests are away at Denver and Atlanta before playing on Thursday night.

The best part of Kansas City’s schedule? Right after the tough stretch. The Chiefs play three consecutive games at home against Oakland, Tennessee and Denver. The last week sees Reid’s group go to San Diego to play a Chargers team that should be out of contention.

Draft class

Round 2 (37) – Chris Jones, DT, Mississippi State
Round 3 (74) – KeiVarae Russell, CB, Notre Dame
Round 4 (105) – Parker Ehinger, OG, Cincinnati
Round 4 (106) – Eric Murray, S, Minnesota
Round 4 (126) – Demarcus Robinson, WR, Florida
Round 5 (162) – Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford
Round 5 (165) – Tyreek Hill, WR, West Alabama
Round 6 (178) – D.J. White, CB, Georgia Tech
Round 6 (203) – Dadi Nicolas, OLB, Virginia Tech

This class isn’t going to overwhelm anybody, but general manager John Dorsey did a nice job picking up some talent in the secondary. Russell has a chance to compete for immediate snaps while Murray will fight for attention in a deep safety group.

Jones, Kansas City’s second-round choice, will rotate with Howard and Bailey along the front line and could be taking over a starting spot in 2017 if Poe leaves in free agency. Also, look for Hill to become a returner on special teams, getting a chance to contribute.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Mitch Schwartz, OT (5 years, $33 million)
Rod Streater, WR (1 year, $810,000)
Nick Foles, QB (1 year, $1.75 million)

Lost

Sean Smith, CB (OAK – 4 years, $40 million)
Donald Stephenson, OT (DEN – 3 years, $14 million)
Tyvon Branch, S (AZ – 2 years, $8 million)
Jeff Allen, OG (HOU – 4 years, $28 million)
Chase Daniel, QB (PHI – 3 years, $21 million)
Husain Abdullah, S (Retirement)
Mike DeVito, DE (Retirement)

X-Factor

Can Gaines stay healthy? After losing Sean Smith in free agency to the Raiders, the Chiefs are banking on the third-year corner out of Rice to step up and stay on the field. Last year, Gaines was playing solid football before tearing his ACL in Week 3 at Lambeau Field.

If Gaines can play 16 games or something close to it, the Chiefs should be able to handle the departure of Smith. If he’s out for an extended period of time, this secondary could be exposed as thin with rookies potentially having to play extensively.

Bottom Line

This is the year Kansas City has to make a move. Denver is starting Mark Sanchez and Oakland is still trying to fit all the pieces together. The Chiefs went 11-5 last year for the second time in Reid’s three seasons and won a playoff game for the first time in 22 years.

For Kansas City, it’s Super Bowl or bust. The roster is loaded with marquee names on both sides of the ball but there is some age in certain spots. If the Chiefs bog down and don’t at least reach the AFC Championship Game, this season is a failure.