Colts season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

From Super Bowl-on-paper champions to 7-9 and missing the playoffs. The story of the 2015 Indianapolis Colts started with general manager Ryan Grigson signing a litany of older, big-name players in free agency and essentially ended with a lacerated kidney to Andrew Luck in Week 8 against the Denver Broncos.

The Colts were the biggest disappointment of the NFL last year, and this year aim to be its biggest surprise. After such terrible play from both Luck and his supporting cast, most believe the Colts will struggle to reach the playoffs in 2016.

Grigson went the opposite direction of his previous spending spree this offseason, adding only cornerback Patrick Robinson (on a three-year contract) to a defense that needs all the help it can muster.

Outside of fellow cornerback Vontae Davis and a solid nucleus on the defensive line that includes Henry Anderson and Kendall Langford, the Colts don’t have much talent. Free agency saw the exodus of longtime inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman, while safety Dwight Lowery also bolted for the San Diego Chargers.

The pass rush seems non-existent, with an aged Robert Mathis and Erik Walden on the outside, something that does not bode well for a beleaguered secondary. Davis can hold his own against most receivers in the league, but both Robinson and slot corner Darius Butler have plenty to prove. Frankly, neither have shown much in their brief careers.

This team will only go as far as Luck can drag it. The offensive line should be improved with Grigson making a solid pick in first-round center Ryan Kelly out of the University of Alabama. Kelly gives the Colts a nice base from the center through left tackle, with Anthony Castonzo on the edge and Jack Mewhort at guard. However, the right side remains a deep concern. There are a hoard of options for head coach Chuck Pagano to tinker with including Denzelle Good, Joe Haeg and Jonotthan Harrison, but none of them are quality.

Luck will also have to make due with the lack of a rushing attack. Frank Gore is a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate, but he slowed substantially last season with only 3.7 yards per carry. The loss of tight end Coby Fleener also hurts Luck, who is hoping to bounce back from a truncated 2015 campaign that saw only 15 touchdowns against 12 interceptions.

The receiving corps will be Luck’s strength with T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Hilton thrived in 2015 despite quarterback upheaval, catching 69 passes for 1,124 yards. Moncrief went for 733 yards and six touchdowns, and is a breakout candidate in his third season out of Ole Miss.

Indianapolis faces an uphill battle with the AFC South getting better around it and the schedule providing ample challenges with games against the AFC West and NFC North. The Colts are getting a healthy Luck back into the fold, but his supporting cast leads to more questions than answers.

If the Colts are going to make it back into the postseason, it will be because an explosive passing attack can overcome a cavalcade of weaknesses across the remainder of the roster.

Schedule

Week 1 – Detroit Lions
Week 2 – at Denver Broncos
Week 3 – San Diego Chargers
Week 4 – at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
Week 5 – Chicago Bears
Week 6 – at Houston Texans (Sun. night)
Week 7 – at Tennessee Titans
Week 8 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 9 – at Green Bay Packers
Week 10 – BYE
Week 11 – Tennessee Titans
Week 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers (Sun. night)
Week 13 – at New York Jets (Mon.)
Week 14 – Houston Texans
Week 15 – at Minnesota Vikings
Week 16 – at Oakland Raiders
Week 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis has to explode out of the block. The Colts are going to be challenged much more in the AFC South this year than in previous campaigns, and they’ll start with at least a 4-1 mark. The Colts face a very tough game in Week 2, but the rest are very winnable.

Indy is bound to have some struggles later in the season, however. The Colts take on a tough five-game stretch between Weeks 12-16, going on the road thrice while getting Pittsburgh and Houston at Lucas Oil Sadium. This part of the docket could spell the difference.

Draft class

Round 1 (18) – Ryan Kelly, C, Alabama
Round 2 (57) – T.J. Green, S, Clemson
Round 3 (82) – Le’Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech
Round 4 (116) – Hassan Riodgeway, DT, Texas
Round 4 (125) – Antonio Morrison, ILB, Florida
Round 5 (155) – Joe Haeg, OT, North Dakota State
Round 7 (239) – Trevor Bates, LB, Maine
Round 7 (248) – Austin Blythe, C, Iowa

Kelly is the best pick that Grigson has made in some time. The offensive line has some talent in Anthony Castonzo and Jack Mewhort, but the rest of the group has been terrible. Should he pan out, Kelly provides a long-term anchor in the middle.

Green should also have a chance to play immediately with Mike Adams getting older and Dwight Lowery gone in free agency. Morrison is also a nice selection, having been one of the better linebackers in the SEC throughout his career. He could replace Jurrell Freeman in time.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Patrick Robinson, CB (3 years, $14 million)

Lost

Coby Fleener, TE (NO – 5 years, $36 million)
Jurrell Freeman, ILB (CHI – 3 years, $12 million)
Andre Johnson, WR (Released)

X-Factor

Can Indianapolis get any pass rush? Last year, the Colts were led by Kendall Langford and Robert Mathis, who each totaled seven. With Mathis a year older (35) and only playing on pass-rushing downs, somebody will need to step up soon to take the burden off his shoulders.

Looking at the roster, there are not a ton of candidates capable of having a breakout campaign. The Colts released Bjoern Werner in the offseason and kept Trent Cole, who has nothing left. It’s tough see this group providing a fierce rush for a secondary that desperately needs one.

Bottom Line

The Colts could rise up and make the playoffs if Luck goes back to being sublime — something on the order of 40 touchdowns and 4,500 yards. However, even if Luck hits those benchmarks and cuts down on his interceptions, Indy still has an still an upward climb ahead of it.

Indianapolis simply doesn’t have a good roster. There is talent at receiver and the offensive line is improving, but the defense is a sieve and the loss of Fleener is bigger than most realize. It could be another tough year in Naptown.