FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for September 4
Welcome to the Sunday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
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Sunday’s MLB action kicks off at 1:10PM EST with 9 games on the Main FanDuel slate and another 6 games on the Late Fanduel MLB slate!
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 255.8 | $ 8,631 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,296 | 7.31 |
| 5 Day | 238.7 | $ 8,750 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,281 | 6.82 |
| Prev Day | 263.0 | $ 8,700 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,288 | 7.51 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Who is the top pitching option on Sunday's Slate?
Carlos Martinez ($9,800) at Cincinnati: Looking over the main slate on FanDuel, there are some immediate match-ups that jump out and allow us to cross some pitchers off the list. Chris Archer and J.A. Happ face off against each other in Tampa Bay and in Chicago we will see John Lackey and Johnny Cueto take the mound against each other. Not surprisingly, Vegas has these games as essentially “Pick-Ems” which puts the critical 12 point FanDuel win at risk.
Ultimately today comes down to two pitchers, Yu Darvish or Carlos Martinez that I am looking to pay up for. Darvish ($10,500) has the highest strikeout rate of any SP on the slate (30.5%) and faces a Houston team that strikes out at a 23.5% clip which is the third highest on the slate.
The issue I have with paying up for Darvish is that although the Astros strike out at a high rate they also have one of the strongest and deepest offenses in baseball which makes Darvish a risky play.
Martinez ($9,800) comes into the game averaging 51 points per game over the last two weeks, the highest of any pitcher on the slate, and gets a much easier match-up against a weak Reds offense.
Martinez will be my top pitching option on Sunday, but with only a $700 difference, I plan to pivot to Darvish in alternate lineups in the hopes of parlaying the strikeout rate of Darvish/Astros batters into a big DFS score!
Next: Top Hitting Options
The Main Slate on FanDuel takes Coors Field out of play but that does not mean we are missing high upside offenses to target! There are only two teams with run projections over five on the main slate, the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox who Vegas expects to be in a shoot-out in Target Field!
The Twins face off with Anthony Ranaudo who in a short sample size has actually exhibited reverse splits this season, surrendering 13 ER in 10.2 IP to right-handed batters. Right-handed hitters have put up a .610 slugging percentage and a .403 wOBA against Ranaudo this year which puts the Twins RHB firmly in play!
Brian Dozier ($4,100) is on a “fade at your own risk” kind of tear right now, putting up 20+ points in 8 of his last 12 games and makes for a key cog in any lineup you play on the main slate.
Byron Buxton ($2,700) returned to the Twins lineup when rosters expanded and has responded by going 6-10 with 2 home runs since being recalled. At this price point, Buxton is an easy value play if you are looking to pay up at SP and with his lineup spot at the bottom of the Twins lineup, DFS players may overlook his talent!
Andrew Albers (LHP) takes the mound for the Twins, and over his career has been able to limit LHB but has surrendered a .286 average and a .500 slugging percentage to right-handed batters.
Todd Frazier ($4,100) is a top play at 3B however with the inflated price point, it may make sense to pivot to Trevor Plouffe ($3,100) for $1K in savings considering the Twins 3B has actually outperformed Frazier over the last two weeks.
Next: Top FanDuel MLB Lineup
Below you will find my initial lineup for Sunday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.
Pitcher: Carlos Martinez ($9,800)
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Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck