Jets season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis
What a long, strange trip it was for the 2015 New York Jets, who defied all bottom-feeder expectations to go 10-6 — the franchise’s first double-digit total since 2011 — only to narrowly miss the postseason after a Week 17 loss to the Bills.
Things only got crazier in the offseason, where headlines were dominated by general manager Mike Maccagnan low-balling defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, who threatened to balk at his franchise tender and sit out through the preseason, and possibly beyond. The two sides finally came together in dramatic fashion on July 15 (the deadline for players on the franchise tag), with Wilkerson inking a five-year deal.
All the while, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, fresh off a career campaign in which the 33-year-old threw for 3,905 yards and 31 touchdowns, was mired in own contentious contract negotiation. After months of well-publicized back-and-forths with Maccagnan, the Harvard product finally agreed on a two-year deal that essentially works out to a one-year, $12 million pact.
With Fitzpatrick back in the fold, the Jets can now focus on winning. And given the age of the current roster, there is an urgency to make that happen sooner than later.
Most of New York’s key players are 29 or older, including wide receivers Eric Decker (29) and Brandon Marshall (32), center Nick Mangold (32), running back Matt Forte (30), cornerback Darrelle Revis (31), and inside linebacker David Harris (32). In fact, the only young studs are Sheldon Richardson (25) and Wilkerson (26), both of whom are in the prime of their respective careers.
With Tom Brady suspended for the first four games of the season, the New England Patriots are more vulnerable than in years past. Jimmy Garoppolo has never played a meaningful down of professional football, and the defense could be slightly compromised with the loss of outside linebacker Chandler Jones. If the Jets are ever going to make a move and win the division, it has to be now.
The main questions dogging New York are twofold: One, can the secondary hold up? And two, can Fitzpatrick replicate the success of his 2015 campaign? Outside of Revis, the Jets are relying on Buster Skrine, Dee Milliner, and other unknowns to man the outside. Because Todd Bowles’ scheme incorporates a healthy dose of blitzes, corners have to play man without much help, putting even more pressure on this relatively untested group.
Fitzpatrick, however, might be the man with the most to prove. If the Jets are serious about contending for their first title since 1968, they desperately need an encore performance from under center. There’s a reason why New York is the sixth team to employ Fitzpatrick: For all the glimmers of serviceable field-generalship, the bearded slinger has yet to establish sustained success.
If Fitzpatrick and the secondary hold up, the Jets are a dangerous team in the AFC.
Schedule
Week 1 – Cincinnati Bengals
Week 2 – at Buffalo Bills (Thurs.)
Week 3 – at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 4 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 5 – at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 6 – at Arizona Cardinals (Mon.)
Week 7 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 8 – at Cleveland Browns
Week 9 – at Miami Dolphins
Week 10 – Los Angeles Rams
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – New England Patriots
Week 13 – Indianapolis Colts
Week 14 – at San Francisco 49ers
Week 15 – Miami Dolphins (Sat.)
Week 16 – at New England Patriots
Week 17 – Buffalo Bills
No team faces a tougher six-week start to the season. The Jets will be be tested in a major way right out of the gate, playing five of their first six against 2015 playoff teams, with the other being a short week on the road against the Bills.
New York has to find a way to get through that stretch at 3-3 or better. If the Jets falter early to a 2-4 or 1-5 mark, the season will be as good as over before it begins.
Draft class
Round 1 (20) – Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State
Round 2 (51) – Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State
Round 3 (83) – Jordan Jenkins, OLB, Georgia
Round 4 (118) – Juston Burris, CB, North Carolina State
Round 5 (158) – Brandon Shell, OT, South Carolina
Round 7 (235) – Lac Edwards, P, Sam Houston State
Round 7 (241) – Charone Peake, WR, Clemson
New York got a terrific athlete in Lee, who should provide some aggressive pass-rushing off the edge. Beyond Wilkerson and Richardson, last year’s Jets severely lacked in consistent pressure, a key component to Bowles’ much-renowned defense.
Sadly, the rest of this class leaves something to be desired. Hackenberg is seen by many NFL scouts as having all the tools, but the results have said otherwise. If we’re going strictly by the numbers, Hackenberg was a hot mess during his three seasons at Penn State. If you’re a Jets fan, you better be hoping that was more a product of a shaky offensive line than any underlying quarterbacking DNA.
Offseason moves
Acquired
Matt Forte, RB (3 years, $12 million)
Lost
Damon Harrison, NT (NYG – 5 years, $46.25 million)
Chris Ivory, RB (JAX – 5 years, $32.5 million)
Antonio Cromartie, CB (IND – 1 year, $3 million)
D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT (Retirement)
X-Factor
Can Darrelle Revis still be a shutdown corner? Revis is 31 years old and there are whispers he should be moved to safety. Last year, Revis was great in some moments and torched in others, with DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins famously lighting up the future Hall of Famer.
If Revis can no longer handle elite receivers, the Jets could be in real trouble. Antonio Cromartie was awful last year, having since been replaced by the tandem of Buster Skrine and Dee Milliner. New York’s secondary will have a chance to prove itself early, with A.J. Green, Watkins, and Jeremy Maclin all on the docket during the first three weeks.
Bottom Line
The Jets are in the dreaded no-man’s: They’re one of the oldest teams in the NFL, but remain unready to consistently compete at a high level. They’re bad, but not quite bad enough to secure a top-five spot in the 2017 Draft.
Given their ever-narrowing window, Gang Green should be aiming for a playoff berth, in hopes they might catch fire at the right time. It’s going to be tough in the vastly improved AFC, why the Patriots looking like a strong bet to win another AFC East title. If the Jets can keep their postseason hopes alive into December, that’s about as much of a victory as the team’s fans have a right to expect.