Raiders season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis
For a generation of football fans, the Oakland Raiders are the poster children of NFL futility. Since 2002, the Raiders haven’t sniffed — let alone made — the postseason, cycling through nine head coaches and too many failed free agency ventures to count.
What that generation does not know is that Oakland was once the gold standard for winning. The Raiders won three Super Bowl titles from 1976-83, and only suffered five losing seasons between 1964-2002, with four of those being 7-9 marks.
Thankfully, it looks like the Silver and Black might finally be back. Oakland took its time building a winner under general manager Reggie McKenzie, who has done things the right way. Instead of throwing money around like a drunk bachelor at a casino, McKenzie built through the draft.
In 2014, the Raiders hit the proverbial lottery with outside linebacker Khalil Mack and quarterback Derek Carr in the first and second rounds, respectively. Last year, Oakland nabbed wide receiver Amari Cooper with the fourth-overall selection, giving Carr a top weapon to go with bargain-bin free-agent signing Michael Crabtree.
Coupled with the tapping of head coach Jack Del Rio, the moves have paid off handsomely for McKenzie and the Raiders. Oakland went 7-9 a season ago, a four-game improvement from the year prior. In the offseason, McKenzie decided the time to strike was now, signing an avalanche of high-priced players including guard Kelechi Osemele (five years, $60 million), corner Sean Smith (four years, $40 million), outside linebacker Bruce Irvin (four years, $37 million), and safety Reggie Nelson (two years, $8.5 million).
Oakland is entering 2016 with expectations higher than they’ve been since the Rich Gannon era. The team is expected to, at minimum, compete for a playoff spot. At most, Oakland should win the AFC West and make some noise in the playoffs.
For all the optimism, the Raiders may not yet be on the level of elite contenders, whether in the division or in the league writ large. Oakland faces real questions when it comes to stopping the run, especially in the defensive interior. Del Rio’s club also has little to no depth in certain key areas, including corner, defensive line, and tight end. An injury to any major star would be crippling, while teams like the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs have proven to withstand those issues.
Oakland also needs to come together and gel as a unit. The Raiders brought in a litany of new faces and lost glue-guy safety and future first-ballot Hall of Fame safety Charles Woodson. Nelson is a very good player, but he’s not Woodson, even at his advanced age.
If everything goes right for the Raiders, they could be in the AFC West race and perhaps even win the division. If there are some injuries and Oakland doesn’t take advantage of a soft early-season schedule, it could find itself back in third place and trying to figure out what went wrong.
Schedule
Week 1 – at New Orleans Saints
Week 2 – Atlanta Falcons
Week 3 – at Tennessee Titans
Week 4 – at Baltimore Ravens
Week 5 – San Diego Chargers
Week 6 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7 – at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 8 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 9 – Denver Broncos (Sun. night)
Week 10 – BYE
Week 11 – Houston Texans (Mon. night; Mexico)
Week 12 – Carolina Panthers
Week 13 – Buffalo Bills
Week 14 – at Kansas City Chiefs (Thurs.)
Week 15 – at San Diego Chargers
Week 16 – Indianapolis Colts
Week 17 – at Denver Broncos
After the bye, Oakland is going to have some major challenges. The Raiders have the easiest schedule in the league through the first eight games in terms of 2015 winning percentage, but the most difficult through the second half.
The Raiders have to start fast, because they face three divisional road games over the past four weeks. Moreover, Oakland has to play a home game against the Texans in Mexico before hosting the Panthers and Bills. It won’t be easy to make a run late.
Draft class
Round 1 (14) – Karl Joseph, S, West Virginia
Round 2 (44) – Jihad Ward, DE, Illinois
Round 3 (75) – Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State
Round 4 (100) – Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State
Round 5 (143) – DeAndre Washington, RB, Texas Tech
Round 6 (194) – Cory James, OLB, Colorado State
Round 7 (234) – Vadal Alexander, OG, LSU
Oakland has a great offseason, but the draft left something to be desired. McKenzie took a quality player in Joseph — who has a world of talent but is coming off a knee injury — in the first round. Ward and Calhoun both fit positional needs, but they come with a litany of question marks.
The selections of Cook and Washington are curious. The Raiders didn’t need Cook in the fourth round, especially with holes at linebacker and slot corner. Washington could contribute on special teams, but again, the Raiders had bigger problems to address.
Offseason moves
Acquired
Reggie Nelson, S (2 years, $8.5 million)
Sean Smith, CB (4 years, $40 million)
Kelechi Osemele, OG (5 years, $60 million)
Bruce Irvin, OLB (4 years, $37 million)
Lost
Charles Woodson, S (Retirement)
X-Factor
How quickly do the Raiders come together? There are a ton of new faces on the roster and Oakland has to make it all work within the span of a few months. If Del Rio can bring this team together and put them on the same page, it would be impressive.
The talent level is certainly higher, with Irvin and Smith massively improving the defense and Nelson bringing a nice veteran presence. If Oakland can get the secondary up to speed, the Raiders are going to compete for a playoff spot.
Bottom Line
The talk in Oakland — and elsewhere — is of how the Raiders could challenge in the AFC. It seems like that type of chatter is a year premature, however, with Oakland still trying to put together a young, competitive team. The Raiders are better, for sure, but it won’t be a slam dunk that Oakland reaches the playoffs.
The Raiders have to learn how to win, something that never comes easily. Oakland has not reached the postseason in 2002 so expecting 11 or 12 wins is rich. If the Raiders can win 9-10 games and stay in the playoff race, it’s a banner year by the bay.