Falcons season preview 2016: Prediction and analysis
The Falcons are a team with many uncertainties. We know that Matt Ryan will throw for a ton of yards and that Julio Jones is going to dominate on the perimeter. We also know the defense is not going to generate pressure on the opposing quarterback. Everything else? It’s a matter of perspective.
Atlanta started the 2015 season with five straight wins, only to faceplant and finish 8-8. The Falcons will have a tough time getting off to a similar start this time around. In their first six games this year, the Falcons will have the Saints, Broncos, Seahawks and Broncos on the road. One of the two home dates sees Cam Newton and the Panthers come to town.
If Atlanta wants to avoid being buried underneath an avalanche of early-season losses, it is going to need some surprising contributions on both sides of the ball. Ryan has proven himself to be a competent quarterback at minimum, but his passing yardage needs to decrease. For years, the Falcons have been throwing the ball all over the yard, only to abandon the running game.
Last season, Devonta Freeman rushed for at least 100 yards in four of Atlanta’s first seven games. It’s record over that stretch was 6-1. It’s also worth noting that Freeman rushed the ball an average of 18.7 times per game. Over the next nine games, his attempts decreased to 14.7.
If Atlanta wants to improve, Freeman needs to be the bellcow along with Tevin Coleman. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan must incorporate more play-action, helping out the line. With the addition of center Alex Mack, the front wall should be solid in front of Ryan. Last year, the Falcons allowed 32 sacks, putting them in the top 10 of sack prevention.
The only question in terms of offensive talent is the second option in the passing game. With Roddy White gone, Jones will be flanked by Mohamed Sanu. Sanu was signed to a generous five-year deal worth more than $30 million, despite having more than 500 receiving yards in a season once. The tight end position is being held down by Jacob Tamme, who while reliable is wholly unspectacular.
On the defensive side of things, the major concern is pass rush. Last year, Atlanta was comically bad at hitting the other team’s quarterback, registering a league-low 19 sacks. Vic Beasley Jr. led the team with a measly four sacks.
General manager Thomas Dimitroff failed to truly address the glaring problem in the offseason, only signing veteran Dwight Freeney to a one-year deal. Freeney was good with the Arizona Cardinals last season, notching eight sacks in 11 games. Still Freeney had a combined nine sacks in his previous three seasons, so don’t expect a repeat performance.
The only true star on this unit is corner Desmond Trufant, who has some of the best cover skills in the league. His lone issue is hauling in interceptions, only nabbing one last year. Trufant is equipped to handle any team’s top receiver, but he doesn’t have help from the rest of the secondary. Robert Alford, Ricardo Allen and rookie Keanu Neal have plenty to prove.
Atlanta desperately needs head coach Dan Quinn to scheme the defense into respectability while Shanahan employs balance with the offense. Otherwise, it is going to be a long year for the Falcons.
Schedule
Week 1 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 2 – at Oakland Raiders
Week 3 – at New Orleans Saints (Mon.)
Week 4 – Carolina Panthers
Week 5 – at Denver Broncos
Week 6 – at Seattle Seahawks
Week 7 – San Diego Chargers
Week 8 – Green Bay Packers
Week 9 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thurs.)
Week 10 – at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 13 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 14 – at Los Angeles Rams
Week 15 – San Francisco 49ers
Week 16 – at Carolina Panthers
Week 17 – New Orleans Saints
Atlanta is looking at a very tough six weeks to start the season. The Falcons have four road games in that stretch and none of the teams are patsies, with New Orleans maybe the easiest game of the group. The home dates include Carolina, which is a rematch of the game won by Atlanta to hand the Panthers their first loss of 2015.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, there is not a real easy portion to hone in on. The Falcons only have consecutive home games twice, and the four games feature the Chargers, Packers, Chiefs and Cardinals. It could be tough to split those contests.
Draft class
Round 1 (17) – Keanu Neal, S, Florida
Round 2 (52) – Deion Jones, OLB, LSU
Round 3 (81) – Austin Hooper, TE, Stanford
Round 4 (115) – De’Vondre Campbell, OLB, Minnesota
Round 6 (195) – Wes Schweitzer, OG, San Jose State
Round 7 (238) – Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA
General manager Thomas Dimitroff is under pressure to win now, but this class isn’t going to help. Neal is a big, physical safety and should help immediately, but he might have been a reach at the 17th-overall selection. However, at least Neal should play right away.
The rest of this group is underwhelming short-term and middling in the long term. Hooper could win a starting job soon, but he remains raw. Jones could eventually make some noise on defense, although he looks to make his mark early on special teams.
Offseason moves
Acquired
Mohamed Sanu, WR (5 years, $32.5 million)
Alex Mack, C (5 years, $47.5 million)
Derrick Shelby, DE (4 years, $21.5 million)
Dwight Freeney, OLB (1 year, $1 million)
Lost
Roddy White, WR (Unsigned)
X-Factor
Can the Falcons find any pass rush at all? In today’s NFL, the game is geared so heavily around the pass that no pressure equals major issues. Last season, Atlanta did not have a single player with more than five sacks, something of a death null.
if the Falcons are still struggling that badly to get pressure on the likes of Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Drew Brees, it’s all but over. Atlanta doesn’t have the secondary to make up for the lackluster play of the front seven, despite Trufant being a star.
Bottom Line
The Falcons have some talent on both sides of the ball, but nearly enough on defense. Despite Quinn being a former defensive coordinator with the Seahawks and their famed Legion of Boom, there is only so much scheming he can do to hide this unit.
Atlanta will score some points with Ryan, Freeman and Jones leading the way, but on most days it won’t be enough. There is little depth on this group and while the addition of Sanu is helpful, it won’t be overly impactful. It could be a tough year in Atlanta.