Panthers season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the Panthers is putting last season behind them. Carolina had one of the blessed years from the start, going 14-0 before finishing the season at 15-1. In the playoffs, doubters believed Carolina would get its comeuppance after playing an easy schedule, only to see the Panthers destroy both the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals.
In the Super Bowl, the Panthers were universal favorites to crush the offensively-inept Denver Broncos. Instead, Carolina was throttled and quarterback Cam Newton played the worst game of his season. Only two losses all year, and a bevy of disappointment.
Overcoming that sense of deflation is necessary but certainly not easy. Carolina has to start from the beginning once more, with a loaded roster but question marks dotting both sides of the team. The Panthers should feel comfortable that they have a playoff team, but was going 15-1 a mirage fueled by weak opponents and some good fortune on the injury front?
While wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin missed the entire season, Carolina had almost perfect health otherwise. In the world of professional football, that is not usually the case two years running. The Panthers also can’t be banking on another 45-touchdown performance from Newton (35 throwing, 10 running), despite the return of Benjamin.
One also wonders about the offensive line. Michael Oher is underwhelming at left tackle, a dangerous proposition for the blindside of Newton. The strength of the group is center Ryan Kalil, arguably the best at his position.
Under sixth-year head coach Ron Rivera, Carolina is clearly the best team in the NFC South. Barring a tremendous string of injuries ,the Panthers are going to be back in the playoffs as division champs for the fourth consecutive season. The real season begins in January for this group.
The only major subtraction from the Super Bowl roster if All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman. Some in Charlotte seem to downplay Norman’s impact, but it should not be understated. Norman is not on the level of Patrick Peterson or Richard Sherman, but he’s a top-level corner who leaves a huge void in the secondary. Without him, Rivera will rely on Bene Benwikere, James Bradberry and Daryl Worley to stop prolific NFC South receivers.
Should the secondary do its job, the front seven should remain the most dominant in football. Luke Kuechly is the best inside linebacker the game has to offer, while Thomas Davis is fully healed from his broke forearm and remains a force. Up front, the combination of Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short is devastating. Factor in the addition of first-round pick Vernon Butler to the line, and running up the middle against Carolina will be virtually impossible.
The Panthers will be making a return trip to the postseason, but they still have plenty to prove after their Super Bowl flop. Carolina has all the peices to make a deep run, but with a harder schedule and the odds stacked against another healthy season, it won’t be without its challenges.
Schedule
Week 1 – at Denver Broncos (Thurs.)
Week 2 – San Francisco 49ers
Week 3 – Minnesota Vikings
Week 4 – at Atlanta Falcons
Week 5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Mon.)
Week 6 – at New Orleans Saints
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 9 – at Los Angeles Rams
Week 10 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 11 – New Orleans Saints (Thurs.)
Week 12 – at Oakland Raiders
Week 13 – at Seattle Seahawks (Sun. night)
Week 14 – San Diego Chargers
Week 15 – at Washington Redskins (Mon. night)
Week 16 – Atlanta Falcons
Week 17 – at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina has a very palatable slate before its bye week. While there are road games to Denver and New Orleans, the Panthers get the Buccaneers and 49ers at home with a tough contest against the Vikings mixed in.
The Panthers will be tested later, though. After the bye, Arizona comes to town for a rematch of the NFC Championship before a west coast trip to play the Rams. After returning home, the Panthers draw the Chiefs and Saints on a short week, before going out west for a two-game swing against Oakland and Seattle.
Draft class
Round 1 (30) – Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech
Round 2 (62) – James Bradberry, CB, Samford
Round 3 (77) – Daryl Worley, CB, West Virginia
Round 5 (141) – Zack Sanchez, CB, Oklahoma
Round 7 (252) – Beau Sandland, TE, Montana State
The Panthers only had five draft picks, so Gettleman couldn’t do a ton of work here. Carolina did raise some eyebrows by taking Butler in the first round, a good athlete with no clear path to starting. It makes some think that Short is in his last year with the Panthers.
Carolina did go very heavy in the secondary. The Panthers released Josh Norman from the franchise tag this offseason and then cut Brandon Boykin only months after signing him, leaving that unit in tatters. Bradberry, Worley or Sanchez could be seeing significant snaps in 2016.
Offseason moves
Acquired
None
Lost
Josh Norman, CB (WAS – 5 years, $75 million)
X-Factor
How will the secondary perform? Carolina relied heavily last season on Norman to blanket the opponent’s top receiver, but with the All-Pro gone, it needs to find other ways to cover. The Panthers do have a great front seven, but on days when they can’t get home, the Panthers need to show skills on the back end.
With Bene Benwikere and Robert McClain on the outside, the Panthers are facing a very real problem. playing in the NFC South, they will be seeing top-notch receivers more often than not. If Benewikere can’t ascend to top corner status, it could get ugly.
Bottom Line
The Panthers are a very good team, but don’t expect 15-1 again. Carolina will have an improved offense with Newton getting Benjamin back in the mix, but the defense will take a step back with Norman in the nation’s capital.
Carolina is clearly the best team in the division and could very well end up with a bye in the NFC playoffs, but it won’t be a cakewalk. The Panthers have some concerns on both sides of the ball, but they will still win in the double digits.