FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 3

FanDuel NFL

Sep 19, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (11) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 3 is a column highlighting the best player, most affordable, and best value options for your FanDuel NFL lineups focusing on salary versus expected points. The intention of this article is to help you build your FanDuel NFL lineup for the most likely big payday each week.

I like to lean on FantasyPros for weekly point projections, the information is a result of consensus from many fantasy football experts.  I check the point projection results, which update daily, with the salary set by FanDuel for players each week.  Entering week 3, we should start to see salaries settle into a more reasonable point for many players.  However, some players may still be over/under valued based on their week 2 results.

To help you optimize your FanDuel NFL lineups each week, we’re focusing on the Most Points, Best Affordable, and Most Value options.  This article will focus on the Quarterback position. Here’s a brief description of each category:

  • Most Projected Points – Evaluation of top projected point options from FantasyPros
  • Best Affordable – Your most affordable, best player, options leaving you with enough money for good players in other positions
  • Most Value – Identify the cheapest players with the highest upside

Now, let’s take a look at the players everyone’s targeting:

FanDuel NFL

Sep 11, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) looks on from the sidelines in the second half during their game against the Oakland Raiders at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Raiders won 35-34. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Most Projected Points – QB

FantasyPros has Drew Brees ($9,000 / 21.4 points) atop the projected points list for FanDuel NFL quarterbacks in week 3.  That isn’t surprising.  The New Orlean Saints face an Atlanta Falcons defense, this week, who are 21st against the pass, and tied with the Oakland Raiders giving up the most passing touchdowns in the NFL after the first two weeks, seven.  Brees only had 14.52 points against the Giants in week 2, which shocked many.  The Saints and Giants engaged in a shoot-out last season, but this season’s game resulted in mostly good defense and inability of either team to move the ball up and down the field.  However, I suspect Drew will bounce back against a Falcons defense struggling to keep passes out of the end zone.

Also facing struggling pass defenses this week are Aaron Rodgers ($8,900 / 21.1) and Andrew Luck ($8,700 / 20.7).  Rodgers had a decent 18.42 points in week 2, but that’s disappointing considering his pricey salary.  Luck had a dreadful 11.08 points last week, essentially ripping off anyone who paid for him to be in their lineup.  However, Luck’s result shouldn’t have surprised too many, he was facing the reigning super bowl champ defense, Denver Broncos.  This week, Andrew’s odd improve staring down the 28th ranked San Diego Chargers pass defense.  I suspect Andrew Luck will bounce back this week, and is worth his price.

Rounding out the top five are Cam Newton ($9,200 / 20.7) and Ben Roethlisberger ($8,400 / 20.7).  I would completely stay away from Newton this week, facing a touch Minnesota Vikings defense.  Also, while Big Ben is having success so far this season, 21.76 points last week (9th among QB’s), I’m concerned about how poorly Quarterbacks have performed against the Eagles Defense.  Yes, the Eagles only faced RG3 and Jay Cutler so far, but aside from only two to three passes, they’ve mostly shut down the Browns and Bears passing game, that had better success against other teams.  I’m not sure Ben is worth the price this week.

Among the top five projected points for quarterbacks, and among the most expensive, Brees and Luck should have the best days.

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Sep 18, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) before the game against the New Orleans Saints at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Best Affordable – QB

Eli Manning ($7,700 / 18.6) was incredibly disappointing last week.  Manning had a matchup against a bad New Orléans passing defense, and last year we saw a terrific FanDuel NFL shootout between Manning and Drew Brees.  This year, however, we saw the opposite.  Neither team moved the ball much, and Manning went from a fantastic value play to a major disappointment. So with that risk level set, I hesitate to say…Manning should actually have a good match up this week. While the Redskins have two good corners, they’ve struggled to figure out how to shut down the passing game.  The Steelers and Cowboys each moved the ball in the air fairly easily.  Manning will, again, have great weapons against the struggling Skins defense, and will be back at home.  I suspect Eli is able to bounce back against a division rival this week.

Marcus Mariota ($7,700 / 17.3) had two solid games already this year, and is quietly building a very good season. Mariota faced a tough Vikings defense in week 1, but managed to pile up 271 yards on a 61% completion percentage.  Marcus also had two passing touchdowns, but did have on INT.  In Detroit last week, Mariota had 238 yards on a 76% completion percentage, and again had two TD’s and one pick.  With 17.62 FanDuel NFL points, Mariota was a decent value in week 2. This week, Marcus heads back home to Tennessee to face a very bad Oakland Raiders passing defense.  I don’t expect Mariota is heavily owned this week, he’s not getting much media attention, and Marcus could exceed 20 FanDuel NFL points on a reasonable $7,700.  Play Mariota this week!

FanDuel NFL

Sep 18, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) drops back for a pass during the first quarter against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Most Value – QB

For FanDuel NFL, I haven’t thought about Ryan Tannehill ($7,400 / 17.9) since some time last season.  Ryan had a surprising week last week, scoring 25.06 FanDuel NFL points, 4th among all starting quarterbacks. In week 3, Tannehill is facing a Cleveland Browns team struggling in almost every aspect of football.  In Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry, and DeVonte Parker, Ryan has some very talented targets to throw to each week.  Once the Patriots offense began to struggle, with Garoppolo down, the Dolphins passing game came alive.  I believe the Dolphins will continue to roll against the Browns in Miami.  And paying only $7,400 for a quarterback likely to get around 20 points is a bargain.

Carson Wentz ($7,200 / 16.4) isn’t as great of a FanDuel NFL option as you’d think.  Wentz is getting a lot of attention, but that has more to do with his poise on the field and lack of turnovers, as a rookie. However, this week is interesting.  While the Pittsburgh Steelers are generally a good team, their passing defense has been terrible so far.  The Steelers have given up 695 passing yards around, 30th in the NFL, only ahead of the dreadful Oakland Raiders defensive backfield.  While Pittsburgh does have two INT’s, they only have one sack as well.  They’re not pressuring quarterbacks enough and are giving up big yardage plays.  This week is an opportunity for Carson to really impress.  But given he’s a rookie, Wentz is bound to run into a wall, so there’s clear risk with this play.  But also interesting upside.

Wrapping up value, we should revisit Marcus Mariota one more time.  Marcus is facing one of the worst passing defenses at home this week, has averaged around 17 FanDuel NFL points per game, and is a reasonable $7,700 salary.  Mariota is my favorite option this week, followed by Ryan Tannehill.

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